Is Japan Open to Tourists?
Is Japan open for international individual travelers? Are borders open as normal in 2024? What are testing, face mask, and vaccine requirements for visitors? These are questions among those planning trips to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and this covers the answers.
The good news is that we now have an answer to questions we’ve been asking for nearly two years! First, after reopening to guided tour groups, Japan reopened to individual tourists on October 11, 2022. In the year-plus since, additional changes have occurred to the extent that it’s basically business as usual for visiting Japan in 2024.
We’ve already returned to Japan, spending about a month in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and elsewhere. In various updates here, we’ve been sharing our experiences and what it’s like as a foreign visitor, what has changed, crowd conditions, expenses of visiting Japan with the weaker yen, and much more. The big one for most of you is likely going to be Japan Face Mask Rules v. Reality in 2024.
Those two posts cover essentially everything you need to know about visiting Japan as of 2024. The short version is that it is possible to enter, regardless of whether you’re vaccinated or unvaccinated, albeit with a testing requirement for the latter. There are no quarantine requirements, and travel is visa-free for the vast majority of people reading this.
Please subscribe to our FREE email newsletter and stay tuned if you are curious about how things are on-the-ground for tourists in Japan post-reopening.
In terms of the latest news, the current vaccine and testing policies ended on May 8, 2023. This is because Japan has formally decided to downgrade the legal status of the novel coronavirus on May 8, 2023 to the same category as common infectious diseases, such as seasonal influenza, thereby easing COVID-19 prevention rules.
This is a major policy shift and will relax–if not eliminate entirely–Japan’s intensive COVID-19 countermeasures, including limiting the movements of infected people and their close contacts. Japan’s reclassification of COVID-19 to Class 5 came after a panel of experts under the health ministry agreed on the plan earlier in the day.
The downgrade would pave the way for a normalization of social and economic activities in Japan, and should mean that non-residents are able to enter the country without PCR tests or additional paperwork. Essentially, there will be no (legal) basis for the current border protocol effective May 8, 2023. Of course, things could change between now and then, but it’s likely the border will revert to late 2019 status as of that date.
We typically spend a couple of months in Japan each year, and are ecstatic to be returning after nearly 3 years away. We are eager to revisit our favorite places, see friends in Japan for the first time in over two years, and continue creating this site’s wealth of free planning resources. We’re excited about this great (but overdue) news, but also go in knowing that things will be different, in ways both good and bad.
For these two-plus years, we’ve been closely monitoring the situation in Japan, watching several hours of NHK each day and reading multiple Japanese news sources. All of this in the hope for some clarity as to when the country will fully reopen and Japan will begin allowing international tourists to enter once again.
What follows is based on that research and fixation with the on-the-ground situation in Japan. We’re preserving this for posterity, but everything that follows is now (thankfully!) obsolete information.
Japan is now allowing foreign nationals to enter Japan for purposes other than tourism so long as they have a sponsor in the country. This includes business travelers on short stays, students in study abroad programs, participants in technical internships, both guided & unguided tour groups, spouses or children (and other relatives) of a Japanese national/permanent resident, others with special exceptional circumstances, and those who would provide a “public benefit” to Japan.
With that in mind, let’s cover how we got here, why Japan maintains the strictest among the Group of Seven developed nations, and what could cause that to change…
Again and again, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said that Japan “will continue to consider how the measures should be by taking into account the infection situations at home and abroad, border control measures taken by other nations, and progress in the rollout of vaccine boosters.”
Kishida has also acknowledged that Japan’s border control measures are the strictest among Group of Seven nations, and expressed a desire/need to bring Japan in line with its counterparts. “This is the first step in our gradual easing of the [border] restrictions,” Kishida has said.
As for why Japan’s border is still closed over a year after most democracies reopened, that can largely be explained by the country’s apprehensiveness of outsiders.
For better or worse, Japan is an insular and culturally conservative country–a characteristic that is often valued by visitors. Not so much in the last couple of years, as this has been reflected in policy-making. Japan has vilified and scapegoated foreigners and had an overly aggressive approach to its borders.
Due to this and other policies, Japan has lagged behind economically, seeing slower recovery than the United States and other counterparts that have more aggressively reopened. Economic benefits of international tourists is one big reason why Japan is expected to reopen its border.
Boosting tourism was core to the late former Prime Minister Abe’s economic revitalization, and both subsequent prime ministers have indicated their intentions to maintain continuity with those plans. However, the number of foreign visitors to Japan dropped to 245,900 last year, the lowest since 1964, as the country enforced tighter border controls. Compared with the pre-pandemic level in 2019, it dropped 99.2 percent. That’s the sharpest fall on record according to the Japan Tourism Agency.
Economists fear a “double dip” recession in Japan due to the prolonged closures and restrictions. Decreased tourism plus falling exports, an increased consumption tax, reduced consumer spending, weak yen, and growing national debt. Japan’s economy has serious issues and inbound tourism was previously a bright spot.
In other words, reopening to international visitors will be important to the health of Japan’s consumption-driven economy at some point in the not too distant future. This becomes increasingly true as the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan continuing to pursue its loose monetary policy while the United States Federal Reserve, European, and other central banks raise interest rates. Quite simply, Japan is inflicting pain on itself by remaining closed.
There are also signs that stringent travel measures, including the border closure, are having a greater impact on Japan’s economy than previously believed. This is despite Japan’s “Go to Travel” campaign that subsidized domestic travel, which was offered at various times during the last two years.
According to data from the Japan Tourism Agency, stays at hotels and other accommodation facilities hit another record low in Japan last year–breaking the previous record set in 2020. The total of guests at hotels and inns was 315.75 million, down 4.8% from 2020 and 47% from 2019. (This number includes hotels used as government quarantine facilities, not just leisure stays.)
The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party recognizes these problems and realizes it needs to rebuild Japan’s economy. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that his top priority was formulating new economic measures and implementing these goals. The government will also take measures to stimulate and jump-start the economy.
Despite the aforementioned numbers, Japan is maintaining its goal of attracting 60 million foreign visitors by 2030. Additionally, the Japan National Tourism Organization has set 2024 as its goal for recovering to 2019 international travel levels. Both of these statements are reassuring given the current border closures, and indicate that Japan will unwind its travel ban in months, not years.
Against that economic backdrop, let’s take a look at the latest changes to Japan’s reopening plans…
We have more good news! Multiple media outlets, including NHK, Kyodo, Nikkei, and Fuji TV are all reporting that Japan’s government is planning to further relax restrictions and border measures with an eye to implementing the revisions by the start of October.
The specifics are not consistent among outlets, so let’s start with where they’re in agreeance.
First, there is consensus that the daily arrival cap, which is currently set at 50,000, will be eliminated entirely.
This is a necessary prerequisite for further reopening and the resumption of more inbound international flights, but this alone was not an obstacle dissuading most international visitors. While the daily number of arrivals was higher pre-closure, we assumed that 50,000 is the level at which this cap becomes immaterial with China still sidelined. Regardless, it’s good to have this removed as it eliminates an element of uncertainty and could have been an issue during peak travel times for the Japanese.
Another possibility is that Japan will allow individual foreign tourists to enter the country and exempt them from visas if they have been vaccinated three times or submit a pre-arrival test result.
This is where there is disagreement among the major outlets. Kyodo, Nikkei, and NHK are reporting that this is to be determined, with government officials still deciding whether to proceed with this plan or start with lifting the daily arrival cap. By contrast, Fuji TV is treating this as a done deal, using less ambiguous language.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly plans to make a decision as early as the end of this week, according to the news outlets’ sources.
These “leaks” came after Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara spoke on Fuji TV over the weekend and stated that Japan will consider easing all three restrictions–the daily arrival cap, ban on individual tourists, and visa requirements. “We will review all three restrictions together. We have to carry it out in the not-so-distant future,” he said.
“Japan has seasonal attractions in fall and winter. We know there are a lot of people overseas who want to come to Japan,” Kihara added. “Amid the weakening yen, inbound travelers will have greatest economic effect…There are many foreign visitors who want to come visit Japan.” Kihara added that eliminating the arrival cap alone was not enough.
Kihara isn’t the only one who has been vocal about fully reopening to tourists recently. During the Bloomberg New Voices panel, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said she would open the country’s doors “tomorrow” if it were her decision. “Tourism is a big industry in Tokyo, as well as in all Japan, so this is the time to greet more foreign tourists by using this advantage of the depreciation of the yen,” she said.
Koike said that Japan’s borders would fully reopen soon. “The national border is under the management of central government,” Koike said. “As governor of Tokyo, that would be tomorrow.”
The yen has fallen to a 24-year low of ¥144 to the dollar, likely contributing to the sense of urgency in the aforementioned interviews.
Japan eased its border restrictions last week, raising the daily arrival cap from 20,000 to 50,000 and dropping the requirement for pre-arrival PCR testing for vaccinated travelers.
Japan also began allowing unguided tours, meaning ones not accompanied by tour conductors. This is specifically for “unguided tour groups” or “non-escorted visitors on package tours” and not individual tourists.
In Unguided Tours in Japan – Reopening Phase Rules, we cover what this entails and the recently-released guidelines and FAQ for these tours. Prior to those guidelines being released, we speculated on how this would work given basic logic and past precedent with prior groups who had been allowed to enter Japan. We were wrong–the unguided tours offered two steps forward but one step backwards.
We mention this in part to own past mistakes, but also as a cautionary tale. While it certainly sounds like the end is near for the Japan travel ban, it’s premature to have a high degree of confidence.
Kishida’s government has been trying to take advantage of the weak yen and accelerate growth by attracting more foreign visitors. It thus stands to reason that opening to individual tourists necessarily needs to occur–that raising the entry cap will do nothing in furtherance of their stated goal. However, as we have seen time and time again, the patently obvious conclusion often is not the outcome reached by Japan.
Moreover, how this played out with Japan’s last announcement is also instructive.
On August 23, specifics of the September relaxation measures were leaked to the same media outlets. At that time, it was unclear whether unguided tourists would be allowed to enter. On August 31, Kishida made an official announcement encompassing all of the rumored changes, including unguided tourists. (It took a few more days for the guidelines to be released, and the clarifying FAQ is still being updated.)
While presenting the above as a cautionary tale against optimism or over reliance on logic when assessing Japan’s decisions, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. (I’m sorry, I can’t help myself. Like a moth to a flame.)
First, there’s already the realization that unguided tours–like guided tours before them–will not move the needle on inbound tourism in any meaningful way. It’s another symbolic measure, and coming at a time when an increasing number of international visitors have already moved on to other destinations and pent-up demand has begun fizzling out. The number of people anxiously awaiting Japan’s reopening is shrinking, not growing.
Second, there’s awareness within the Kishida administration that the window of opportunity to reopen the border is closing. This is something we’ve pointed out in our best and worst case scenarios in prior updates, but there’s only a limited amount of time between waves.
Over two years into this, the seasonality of COVID transmission is well-established. Cases are currently in freefall and will continue decreasing next month before bottoming out sometime between late October and early November. There will be a winter resurgence. It could start as soon as late November, but is more likely in December.
Reopening to individual tourists in October presents minimal (political) risk and maximum (economic) upside. Public opinion polls show that most voters have already moved on from COVID to assorted scandals; the minority who still care will see no immediate increase in cases correlating with the border reopening.
Frankly, the miscalculation here by the Kishida administration is thinking that this will have an immediate impact on inbound travel. Those reading regular updates on Japan’s reopening are not representative of international travelers at large. Most people need months of time between booking and traveling; very few plan and take last-minute trips–especially international ones.
Obviously, the easing has to occur at some point and this lag will always play out, but the notion that this moves the needle for fall is misguided. Autumn is already a lost cause. At best, this helps with winter. More likely, the impact won’t be fully felt until next year’s cherry blossom season.
One wildcard is the downgrade of COVID’s legal status. Several recent updates have centered around Japan’s internal debate over whether to strip COVID-19 of its special status and downgrade it to the same level as the flu in Japan’s infectious disease categories.
It’s been our perspective that this was a necessary prerequisite to welcoming individual tourists as there would no longer be a need for a responsible receiving party to monitor travelers and act as a liaison for infected individuals. Given that none of the recent reports have even mentioned COVID’s status in regard to reopening, it’s possible our perspective was wrong. Or, that this barrier does still exist and Japan will have to create a “solution” for it (travel insurance?) for individual tourists. Either way, that’s something to continue keeping in mind.
Also as previously mentioned, recent poll data also shows the public is now far less concerned with COVID than the economy, Unification Church scandal, Abe’s state funeral, and other issues. It’s entirely possible that Kishida sees this polling and his sagging approval numbers and realizes that it’s time to move forward. That there’s more upside than downside risk in reopening and encouraging more economic activity.
As we’ve stressed repeatedly, Japan’s populace has been among the most cautious in the world with regard to COVID-19. Human behavior and sentiment don’t change overnight, even if it’s economically advantageous and objectively safer to do so. Statements by politicians and medical advisors, gradual border relaxation measures, and other changes could be interpreted as Japan laying the groundwork for a resumption of normalcy and the country’s eventual reopening. It now appears that the time is here–or coming very soon.
With all of this said, I’ll present my revised best, worst, and base-case scenarios for Japan’s reopening to individual tourists…
Let’s start with the best-case scenario. This assumes that Japan downgrades COVID-19 from its special status to Category 5 literally any day now or that this is not a necessary prerequisite to an individual tourist reopening. (With the possible workaround of travel insurance or some other awkward “fix.”)
Critically, this would eliminate the legal requirement of a responsible receiving party for visitors to Japan. In such a scenario, the borders could almost immediately return to their normal pre-closure status in early October. With this, the visa exemption would be reinstated, making that a non-issue. The arrivals cap would also be eliminated in this scenario.
Then there’s the middle ground or base case. This is now the same as the best-case scenario. In short, the early October reopening is not just our most optimistic view–it’s now what we expect to happen.
To differentiate the two, I’ll also allow for a middle ground possibility of a bifurcated decision with the individual tourist reopening a few weeks after the entry cap elimination. Let’s say that happens in early November.
This is would allow a bit of wiggle room for Japan’s slow and belabored decision-making process that involves a lot of “careful consideration” and “evaluating the situation.” If anything has been well-established during the last two-plus years, it’s that inaction is Japan’s baseline, and anything that does happen occurs gradually and in stages.
Finally, the worst-case scenario is that Japan instead opts to revive its “Go to Travel” campaign just in time for fall colors season, and uses that to buoy the tourism sector through December. It’s possible the country views this as sufficient for tourism businesses to stave off bankruptcy or other financial hardship for another few months.
If/when there’s another winter resurgence in cases, the reopening can would effectively be kicked down the road for a few more months. That would mean individual tourists would not be welcomed back to Japan until sometime in the first half of 2023. I’m inclined to say Spring 2023, but it’s easy to envision a worst-case that isn’t until summer.
Our view is that the worst-case scenario is now highly unlikely. Japan relaxed its border measures earlier in September while still being #1 in the world for new cases. This indicates that Japan is finally ready to move forward and sets the precedent for future changes during waves. Who knows–it still may take until early 2023 to fully downgrade the legal status of COVID. But whatever winter wave occurs (and one will happen), that’s unlikely to be an obstacle to reopening progress, as was the case last year.
With all of that in mind, we remain cautiously optimistic that individual tourists will be allowed to enter Japan sooner rather than later. The political and economic appetite for fully relaxation now clearly exists, and there’s a vocal chorus of politicians in Japan–including those who were previously in favor of closed borders–championing reopening. It’s now the popular position being advanced publicly by politicians, not just being advocated by Keidanren or Japan’s business lobby.
Japan fully reopening in full is all but inevitable at this point. It will happen soon. The end is near.
It’s thus our view that Japan reopening in some capacity to individual tourists in October is a very realistic scenario. As improbable as it might’ve seemed even a week ago, Japan welcoming back international visitors who are not part of tours (guided or unguided) sometime before November is likely. It’s pretty clear the government is focused on moving forward. As frustrating as this whole process has been, Japan is not still (completely) stuck in March 2020.
As always, Japan is cautious and conservative, with a slow and belabored decision-making process that often embodies “analysis paralysis” and usually defies logic. That’s a wild card that could further extend any timeline. However, Japan is now joining the rest of the world as people are ready to move on with life.
We’ll keep watching the news and keep you posted if/when there are further developments about Japan reopening and allowing entry to travelers from the United States, Canada, Europe, and beyond. Again, if you’d like to be notified as soon as more details are released or rumored, subscribe to our free email newsletter for ongoing updates and alerts:
If you’re planning a visit to Japan, our recommendation at this point is to target sometime in November at the earliest. In our view, koyo (autumn leaves) season is a good bet, and that takes place from mid-November through December. That’s simply a good time to visit Japan and, hopefully, the country will be open to individual tourists by then.
Speaking of which, check out our Japan Fall Colors Forecast & Autumn Foliage Viewing Guide to get started on planning your trip to visit Japan’s popular fall foliage cities, including Kyoto, Tokyo, Mount Fuji, Miyajima, Hiroshima, Himeji, and Nara. That also offers tips for avoiding crowds and strategy for visiting the best temples, shrines, and evening illuminations.
If you’re planning a trip to the Japan, check out our other posts about Japan for ideas on other things to do! We also recommend consulting our Ultimate Guide to Kyoto and Ultimate Guide to Tokyo to plan.
Your Thoughts
Would you consider visiting Japan later this year, or is international travel out of the question for you anytime soon? How do you view the news about guided tours? Think those will stick around for several months, or are simply theater to shift public opinion? Think the need to adapt and live with the endemic virus will outweigh fear when it comes to Japan’s reopening plans? Any thoughts or tips of your own to add? If you’re planning your trip to Japan, what do you think about these itineraries? Any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
Has anyone considered traveling to Japan through Kunashir Island? Just thought I’d throw that out there and see who replies.
In the US and have moved a visit to Tokyo twice – thought December 2021 would be definitely available in the Spring. Now, we are all waiting for vaccination rates and hoping. It really comes down to Japan accepting the same reality as many other countries – we need to live WITH the virus and take proper steps. There isn’t going to be a perfect time anytime in the near future. Anyone have any other good resources like this for updates?
“We need to live WITH the virus”. I fully agree, but this is unfortunately not the Japanese way of thinking and not widely suggested as an option in Japanese media. Still people in Japan believe that “corona will be over” one day and until then, border shall remain closed. Chinese think in the same way. One Chinese business partner I talked with recently commented on this: “We Asians are a little more careful than you Westerners”. Scholars call it “High Uncertainty Avoidance”.
I was talking with someone who has a high position in the Japanese Tourism Agency and his guess was that tourists can be back by March 2022, but he said that this totally depends on the way how Japanese media report about covid and the fear this creates in the population. In general, I have the feeling the general population enjoys reading bad and scary news and won’t know how to deal with their sudden freedom should covid one day actually be “over”. Covid is also a nice excuse for many people why many things cannot be done.
Man, I’ve already lost track of time and my single ounce of hope to reside and work to Japan. The worst part is waiting without knowing how long it will going to take, it takes a toll on my mental health, reading this article somehow gave me a lil bit shine of hope. And reading these comments made me realize that I am not alone, lifted some of the weight in my shoulders.
I’m from the Philippines, and already fully vaccinated, however, i’ve only been given the Sinovac vaccine, in our country we have no choice of the vaccine type that we will receive, the efficacy is low for the assymptomatic cases, but effective for severe and fatal cases. Now, the worst part, our country has already cases of the Delta and Lambda variant, and I am not really sure if Japan will ever allow our country to enter theirs, just thinking about this makes me really sad…
I already have my COE issued by the Japan Embassy this July 31th, however I have loooots of doubts, if they will open their borders with countries like us, with people whose only vaccinated by sinovac, or with people that has high covid cases… I’m just tired of waiting…
My Sentiments exact. I’m still holding on to hope but my logic mind says to give up. It may never happen again. 🙁
Born in JP, raised in USA. My cousin’s wedding in the fall, but it is looking like I won’t be able to go unless I quarantine for 2 weeks- which I just don’t have time for. It’s extremely upsetting as I haven’t been home or seen my family in 3 years now, but I understand the Japanese government’s hesitancy to open the country. Vaccinated people can still get the unvaxxed sick, Japan’s work culture as a whole doesn’t allow for WFH, and it’s ultimately the Japanese people who deal with the repercussions of COVID after the tourists leave (i.e. Tokyo Olympics).
I love when international people visit and appreciate our culture, but Japan is more than just a pretty place you like to visit every year and the government is doing what needs to be done to protect their people. And just because you don’t like the government not allowing tourists in, does not mean the international community should abandon Japanese people altogether.
I do hope if you guys with jobs, families, and significant others are able to get to Japan soon though.
It’s not always about tourism. I had come to India from Japan in Feb 2020 for my delivery. I then held a dependent visa as my husband is working there on an engineer visa. It’s been a year and a half, I haven’t been able to return to my husband. Our baby is devoid of love from her father due to these abominable restrictions. Though we have COEs, visa processing is not taking place. We haven’t been able to stay together as a family.
This is interesting. Thank you. I’m British but I’ve lived in Japan for a long time and I have permanent residency. I want to go home to visit family I haven’t seen in years. I am double vaccinated so I have no quarantine when I go to the UK, but I will still have a two week quarantine when I return. And that is stopping me traveling because I don’t have enough holiday. I wouldn’t be surprised if the border opens early in 2022, but I don’t think the quarantine will disappear. If every tourist, vaccinated or not, has to quarantine for two weeks, almost nobody will be able to come.
Thank you for this comment! The wait must be hard for you…
When do you think tourists (small stay without quarantine) will be able to come?
I will do the quarantine. I dont care. I just want to get into Japan.
Time to end this madness: I’m dumping all my plans for Japan. Two years waiting. They want to stay closed forever. They want their government to ban foreigners again. North Korea style? Please do. I’m out. The love I had for this country is DEAD. I know tourism is not so important to their economy. But I truly hope that when the Japanese Tourism professionals start jumping off buildings because they’re going bust and can’t pay wages, the Japanese Prime-Minister will have the guts to publicly admit they killed more people by closing the country than two years of virus. good luck, going to better places than this medieval state.
Um, like Australia and New Zealand and all the Pacific Island states that are also closed to international travelers? Countries need to ensure their medical facilities aren’t overwhelmed before re-opening.
I plan to do a 12 days tour in Japan in the beginning of October 2022 (organized trip with people). Do you think it will be possible?
By reading your comments, I am afraid that even if Japan reopens in 2022, they will not let vaccinated tourists come…
I’ve had and recovered from covid from very early on in the pandemic. Unlike even fully vaccinated people, I have sterilizing immunity – I cannot even transmit the virus. I am of virtually no danger to anyone or myself.
And yet I can’t go back to my job, friends and life in Japan because of senseless bureaucracy.
I never thought I’d say it, but I think I’m falling out of love with the country. They are presenting zero prospects for future travel for returning to normal, even while other countries are accepting Japanese as visitors. And for the hardcore Japan simps out there, not all of us want to go just as tourists. Many of us have been cut off from our former lives there.
They seem to be staking everything on the vaccines. But if Iceland is any indication, this will prove futile. I can’t spend my whole life waiting for reopening. My relationships with even the
closest friends have faded, as inevitably happens when you don’t see people for ages. Eventually, they will have moved on, too.
Well I’m ready so say screw Japan. Japanese should be barred entry to any country with whom they aren’t willing to reciprocate travel. If they want to return to Sakoku, let’s help them out. In the mean-time, South Korea is looking good. Similar high trust low crime culture. And despite their difficulties early on, they are actually allowing people to visit.
I had to cancel my plans last year in July… Im tired of waiting. The worst part is that Japan is still not close enough to “reopen” its borders since vaccination is lacking behind compared to other first world countries.
I wish they would speed up their vaccination process
Hi, I’m someone who just finished their a levels and for the past two years was hoping to take a gap year in Japan from the end of 2021. Can someone be straightforward with me and tell me if they think this is possible or not. I really would like to take a year out of studying to explore Japan specifically, but university deadlines for me are september/november so I don’t want to be holding on to hope and waste a whole year waiting for Japan’s boarders to open. Should I just apply to university and hope there’s some time in the future I could visit?
Don’t stake anything on it, apply and even accept courses (as if the borders open you may be able to defer your studies for a year which is a load off your mind). Students etc likely will be able to go to Japan in 2022, a few articles have said so. But this is just speculation so again don’t stake on it xx
Hello, I’m living in Japan and working in the tourism industry and have been following all covid news daily for the last 18 months.
I think it is highly unlikely that any traveling to Japan will be possible in 2021. I think your optimism is based on a few wrong assumptions:
1) foreign tourism is not an important business sector in Japan. In 2019, it contributed to only 0.375 percent of the gdp (total domestic&foreign travel 7.5%, which is 95% domestic and only 5% foreign)
2) The list of countries recognizing Japanese vaccine passports has recently grown including larger and more “relevant” countries (Germany, South Korea), without those countries asking for reciprocity.
3) Japan will never reach herd immunity, as number of people who refuse to get vaccinated is too high (e.g. only 62% of those under 30 want to get vaccinated) and government has stated several times there won’t be any disadvantages to anyone not vaccinated.
4) delta variant that causes infection even to those fully vaccinated is already dominating, which means case numbers will remain high. Fully vaccinated people typically don’t get seriously sick from it, but just the high case numbers will scare the general public so that politicians won’t risk any border opening, potentially “importing” new scary variants (“lambda”). I think the key sentence from your text is “many of Japan’s decisions–or lack thereof–have been driven by fear of cultural outsiders and indecisiveness.”
My projection: border will reopen in around 3 years to tourists. Maybe 5 or 10. Nobody can tell. Probably student and business visas earlier with strong regulations (fully vaccinated + quarantine).
What??? 3 years no way! Even the most pessimistic predictions haven’t predicted 5-10 years
Well, the first sakoku period took 214 years and most Japanese people think the it was good to “protect” Japan from being colonialised.
Now most Japanese people think the border closure is good to “protect” them from foreigners who would potentially carry the coronavirus.
Politicians do what voters want and foreign nationals wanting to enter Japan are not their voters. And negative economic effects of a long-term border closure to the Japanese economy are no concern to the majority of voters who are close to or in retirement age.
Of course the world is different now compared to the first sakoku period, but 3, 5 or 10 years doesn’t appear a long time compared to 214 years. Japanese culture is long-term oriented.
you must not live a in a big city. What country are from the most tourists we meet in here ? Japan. Japanese people LOVE to travel. And if we can’t go visit them, they can’t visit us. For sure there is pressure on there side too.
Hoping to go in June 2022, very excited to do so but can’t help but feel a bit of worry. Reading this article is a great help and reassurance though! Still a small doubt in the back of my head says something will go wrong, but oh well, all I can do is hope!
Japan should open the borders for international tourism at least for fully vaccinated people.
COVID-19 may or may not go fading for years and we cannot stop everything or living, so I think the industry should reopen.
They can reopen carefully with rules.
For me Japan is the last resource. I used to go every year.
That’s not super fair when vaccinated people can still carry corona and at the moment many people here are on a wait list to get the vaccine. Allowing people in just because their vaccinated ignores the needs of us living in Japan. At least until we have all said yes (or no for some) to getting vaccinated I hope they don’t open the borders. As it stands my husband and I are both waiting even though we got our ‘coupon’ to get vaccinated a month ago.
I didn’t understand your comment. Well, either you agree or not life cannot stop and so eventually borders will reopen. Delta will fade eventually and vaccinated people are safe. I have a Japanese wife so it’s not a problem for me whatever you say yes or no open borders.
you are all selfish. sure, tourism is the most important…for you. Typical. As someone from Japan: we do not want tourists and strongly hope for stricter rules. Btw we’re expecting reopening before 2023 spring probably, so chill.
Millions of Japanese in the tourism industry, either directly or adjacent, would probably call you the selfish one. Safety is of course of utmost importance but it’s not a simple equation as you state. Maybe instead of telling tourists to F off you should instead convince your neighbors not to crowd into indoor bars or insist on working in an office.
I am separated from my Japanese fiancée. Stuck the other side of the world and unable to see my other half as we haven’t married yet, as such the Japanese government doesn’t acknowledge our relationship, no matter how many years we’ve been together.
I wouldn’t consider people wanting to go to your country on a Tourist Visa “Selfish”, there are many reasons why one might want to Japan to open.
Same situation here. Haven’t seen my boyfriend in 16 months.
Not everyone waiting for entry ban to lift is going for tourism. And many of us are more than willing to comply with tests and quarantine just to see our loved ones.
Same situation here. My fiancé is in Japan and I’m other side of the world.
Not everyone coming on a tourist visa is a tourist @tsubaki
YOU are the selfish one! They way you speak I highly doubt that you are Japanese. Telling people to “Chill”……. saying it will be 2023 when you dont know the facts. A lot of People, me being from the USA, have good reasons for going to Japan. in fact, I’m moving there Nov. 2021…..
Moving to Japan in Nov 21? How?
I’ve never once had covid this entire time during the entire duration of the pandemic yet you state basically in laymen’s terms that i’m selfish because I want to visit Japan as a tourist before deciding if I want to live there in the future. Maybe you should chill? Personally I think that as long as someone doesn’t have covid then they should be allowed to travel anywhere regardless of whether they’ve been vaccinated or not. Too many people these days are being treated unfairly and too many are putting an emphasis on prerequisites as a condition of travel so much that they’ve lost the plot.
Strange Tsubaki, when you are outside of Japan your people is very nice and friendly.
Enjoy your perfect, pure, closed country. I hope all other countries ban every single Japanese national from entering their borders until sanity returns to Japan. We must have diplomatic Reciprocity.
I’ve been hoping for just this kind of info, thank you! My 2020 air ticket is now dated Oct 20, 2021, and while I have my doubts, I’m not ready to give up yet!
I’m eagerly awaiting for borders to reopen and it’s good to read your thoughts! Was just wondering, you mentioned numerous times how reliant Japan is on international tourism. Do you have any sources on that fact? I remember reading recent statistics that claimed international tourism only accounted for something like 2% of Japan’s GDP.
Thanks so much for these updates. I am following them religously. I have a (re-scheduled) trip booked for late March 2022 to mid April 2022, but I am getting increasingly pessimistic about it – even if they start to open borders then, as an individual leisure traveller I am likely to be towards the end of the priority list. Plus I’m still worried about what the reaction to foreigners will be in the early stages of opening borders – will they be scared/worried about us?
Reading your updates on this post always makes me feel grounded. Thank you!
I have recently been offered a job in Japan that doesn’t start until next April, but I would hopefully be moving over in March. The company says we will begin the visa process this fall, but I am still worried that the country not opening will delay things. Since I think that they still aren’t offering new work visas?
My wife got a job in Japan and we have been waiting for a visa since January 2021. They’ve extended our COE, which was supposed to be invalid last month, until next year. They will open when they feel they are ready.