Is Japan Open to Tourists?
Is Japan open for international individual travelers? Are borders open as normal in 2024? What are testing, face mask, and vaccine requirements for visitors? These are questions among those planning trips to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and this covers the answers.
The good news is that we now have an answer to questions we’ve been asking for nearly two years! First, after reopening to guided tour groups, Japan reopened to individual tourists on October 11, 2022. In the year-plus since, additional changes have occurred to the extent that it’s basically business as usual for visiting Japan in 2024.
We’ve already returned to Japan, spending about a month in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and elsewhere. In various updates here, we’ve been sharing our experiences and what it’s like as a foreign visitor, what has changed, crowd conditions, expenses of visiting Japan with the weaker yen, and much more. The big one for most of you is likely going to be Japan Face Mask Rules v. Reality in 2024.
Those two posts cover essentially everything you need to know about visiting Japan as of 2024. The short version is that it is possible to enter, regardless of whether you’re vaccinated or unvaccinated, albeit with a testing requirement for the latter. There are no quarantine requirements, and travel is visa-free for the vast majority of people reading this.
Please subscribe to our FREE email newsletter and stay tuned if you are curious about how things are on-the-ground for tourists in Japan post-reopening.
In terms of the latest news, the current vaccine and testing policies ended on May 8, 2023. This is because Japan has formally decided to downgrade the legal status of the novel coronavirus on May 8, 2023 to the same category as common infectious diseases, such as seasonal influenza, thereby easing COVID-19 prevention rules.
This is a major policy shift and will relax–if not eliminate entirely–Japan’s intensive COVID-19 countermeasures, including limiting the movements of infected people and their close contacts. Japan’s reclassification of COVID-19 to Class 5 came after a panel of experts under the health ministry agreed on the plan earlier in the day.
The downgrade would pave the way for a normalization of social and economic activities in Japan, and should mean that non-residents are able to enter the country without PCR tests or additional paperwork. Essentially, there will be no (legal) basis for the current border protocol effective May 8, 2023. Of course, things could change between now and then, but it’s likely the border will revert to late 2019 status as of that date.
We typically spend a couple of months in Japan each year, and are ecstatic to be returning after nearly 3 years away. We are eager to revisit our favorite places, see friends in Japan for the first time in over two years, and continue creating this site’s wealth of free planning resources. We’re excited about this great (but overdue) news, but also go in knowing that things will be different, in ways both good and bad.
For these two-plus years, we’ve been closely monitoring the situation in Japan, watching several hours of NHK each day and reading multiple Japanese news sources. All of this in the hope for some clarity as to when the country will fully reopen and Japan will begin allowing international tourists to enter once again.
What follows is based on that research and fixation with the on-the-ground situation in Japan. We’re preserving this for posterity, but everything that follows is now (thankfully!) obsolete information.
Japan is now allowing foreign nationals to enter Japan for purposes other than tourism so long as they have a sponsor in the country. This includes business travelers on short stays, students in study abroad programs, participants in technical internships, both guided & unguided tour groups, spouses or children (and other relatives) of a Japanese national/permanent resident, others with special exceptional circumstances, and those who would provide a “public benefit” to Japan.
With that in mind, let’s cover how we got here, why Japan maintains the strictest among the Group of Seven developed nations, and what could cause that to change…
Again and again, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said that Japan “will continue to consider how the measures should be by taking into account the infection situations at home and abroad, border control measures taken by other nations, and progress in the rollout of vaccine boosters.”
Kishida has also acknowledged that Japan’s border control measures are the strictest among Group of Seven nations, and expressed a desire/need to bring Japan in line with its counterparts. “This is the first step in our gradual easing of the [border] restrictions,” Kishida has said.
As for why Japan’s border is still closed over a year after most democracies reopened, that can largely be explained by the country’s apprehensiveness of outsiders.
For better or worse, Japan is an insular and culturally conservative country–a characteristic that is often valued by visitors. Not so much in the last couple of years, as this has been reflected in policy-making. Japan has vilified and scapegoated foreigners and had an overly aggressive approach to its borders.
Due to this and other policies, Japan has lagged behind economically, seeing slower recovery than the United States and other counterparts that have more aggressively reopened. Economic benefits of international tourists is one big reason why Japan is expected to reopen its border.
Boosting tourism was core to the late former Prime Minister Abe’s economic revitalization, and both subsequent prime ministers have indicated their intentions to maintain continuity with those plans. However, the number of foreign visitors to Japan dropped to 245,900 last year, the lowest since 1964, as the country enforced tighter border controls. Compared with the pre-pandemic level in 2019, it dropped 99.2 percent. That’s the sharpest fall on record according to the Japan Tourism Agency.
Economists fear a “double dip” recession in Japan due to the prolonged closures and restrictions. Decreased tourism plus falling exports, an increased consumption tax, reduced consumer spending, weak yen, and growing national debt. Japan’s economy has serious issues and inbound tourism was previously a bright spot.
In other words, reopening to international visitors will be important to the health of Japan’s consumption-driven economy at some point in the not too distant future. This becomes increasingly true as the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan continuing to pursue its loose monetary policy while the United States Federal Reserve, European, and other central banks raise interest rates. Quite simply, Japan is inflicting pain on itself by remaining closed.
There are also signs that stringent travel measures, including the border closure, are having a greater impact on Japan’s economy than previously believed. This is despite Japan’s “Go to Travel” campaign that subsidized domestic travel, which was offered at various times during the last two years.
According to data from the Japan Tourism Agency, stays at hotels and other accommodation facilities hit another record low in Japan last year–breaking the previous record set in 2020. The total of guests at hotels and inns was 315.75 million, down 4.8% from 2020 and 47% from 2019. (This number includes hotels used as government quarantine facilities, not just leisure stays.)
The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party recognizes these problems and realizes it needs to rebuild Japan’s economy. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that his top priority was formulating new economic measures and implementing these goals. The government will also take measures to stimulate and jump-start the economy.
Despite the aforementioned numbers, Japan is maintaining its goal of attracting 60 million foreign visitors by 2030. Additionally, the Japan National Tourism Organization has set 2024 as its goal for recovering to 2019 international travel levels. Both of these statements are reassuring given the current border closures, and indicate that Japan will unwind its travel ban in months, not years.
Against that economic backdrop, let’s take a look at the latest changes to Japan’s reopening plans…
We have more good news! Multiple media outlets, including NHK, Kyodo, Nikkei, and Fuji TV are all reporting that Japan’s government is planning to further relax restrictions and border measures with an eye to implementing the revisions by the start of October.
The specifics are not consistent among outlets, so let’s start with where they’re in agreeance.
First, there is consensus that the daily arrival cap, which is currently set at 50,000, will be eliminated entirely.
This is a necessary prerequisite for further reopening and the resumption of more inbound international flights, but this alone was not an obstacle dissuading most international visitors. While the daily number of arrivals was higher pre-closure, we assumed that 50,000 is the level at which this cap becomes immaterial with China still sidelined. Regardless, it’s good to have this removed as it eliminates an element of uncertainty and could have been an issue during peak travel times for the Japanese.
Another possibility is that Japan will allow individual foreign tourists to enter the country and exempt them from visas if they have been vaccinated three times or submit a pre-arrival test result.
This is where there is disagreement among the major outlets. Kyodo, Nikkei, and NHK are reporting that this is to be determined, with government officials still deciding whether to proceed with this plan or start with lifting the daily arrival cap. By contrast, Fuji TV is treating this as a done deal, using less ambiguous language.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly plans to make a decision as early as the end of this week, according to the news outlets’ sources.
These “leaks” came after Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara spoke on Fuji TV over the weekend and stated that Japan will consider easing all three restrictions–the daily arrival cap, ban on individual tourists, and visa requirements. “We will review all three restrictions together. We have to carry it out in the not-so-distant future,” he said.
“Japan has seasonal attractions in fall and winter. We know there are a lot of people overseas who want to come to Japan,” Kihara added. “Amid the weakening yen, inbound travelers will have greatest economic effect…There are many foreign visitors who want to come visit Japan.” Kihara added that eliminating the arrival cap alone was not enough.
Kihara isn’t the only one who has been vocal about fully reopening to tourists recently. During the Bloomberg New Voices panel, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said she would open the country’s doors “tomorrow” if it were her decision. “Tourism is a big industry in Tokyo, as well as in all Japan, so this is the time to greet more foreign tourists by using this advantage of the depreciation of the yen,” she said.
Koike said that Japan’s borders would fully reopen soon. “The national border is under the management of central government,” Koike said. “As governor of Tokyo, that would be tomorrow.”
The yen has fallen to a 24-year low of ¥144 to the dollar, likely contributing to the sense of urgency in the aforementioned interviews.
Japan eased its border restrictions last week, raising the daily arrival cap from 20,000 to 50,000 and dropping the requirement for pre-arrival PCR testing for vaccinated travelers.
Japan also began allowing unguided tours, meaning ones not accompanied by tour conductors. This is specifically for “unguided tour groups” or “non-escorted visitors on package tours” and not individual tourists.
In Unguided Tours in Japan – Reopening Phase Rules, we cover what this entails and the recently-released guidelines and FAQ for these tours. Prior to those guidelines being released, we speculated on how this would work given basic logic and past precedent with prior groups who had been allowed to enter Japan. We were wrong–the unguided tours offered two steps forward but one step backwards.
We mention this in part to own past mistakes, but also as a cautionary tale. While it certainly sounds like the end is near for the Japan travel ban, it’s premature to have a high degree of confidence.
Kishida’s government has been trying to take advantage of the weak yen and accelerate growth by attracting more foreign visitors. It thus stands to reason that opening to individual tourists necessarily needs to occur–that raising the entry cap will do nothing in furtherance of their stated goal. However, as we have seen time and time again, the patently obvious conclusion often is not the outcome reached by Japan.
Moreover, how this played out with Japan’s last announcement is also instructive.
On August 23, specifics of the September relaxation measures were leaked to the same media outlets. At that time, it was unclear whether unguided tourists would be allowed to enter. On August 31, Kishida made an official announcement encompassing all of the rumored changes, including unguided tourists. (It took a few more days for the guidelines to be released, and the clarifying FAQ is still being updated.)
While presenting the above as a cautionary tale against optimism or over reliance on logic when assessing Japan’s decisions, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. (I’m sorry, I can’t help myself. Like a moth to a flame.)
First, there’s already the realization that unguided tours–like guided tours before them–will not move the needle on inbound tourism in any meaningful way. It’s another symbolic measure, and coming at a time when an increasing number of international visitors have already moved on to other destinations and pent-up demand has begun fizzling out. The number of people anxiously awaiting Japan’s reopening is shrinking, not growing.
Second, there’s awareness within the Kishida administration that the window of opportunity to reopen the border is closing. This is something we’ve pointed out in our best and worst case scenarios in prior updates, but there’s only a limited amount of time between waves.
Over two years into this, the seasonality of COVID transmission is well-established. Cases are currently in freefall and will continue decreasing next month before bottoming out sometime between late October and early November. There will be a winter resurgence. It could start as soon as late November, but is more likely in December.
Reopening to individual tourists in October presents minimal (political) risk and maximum (economic) upside. Public opinion polls show that most voters have already moved on from COVID to assorted scandals; the minority who still care will see no immediate increase in cases correlating with the border reopening.
Frankly, the miscalculation here by the Kishida administration is thinking that this will have an immediate impact on inbound travel. Those reading regular updates on Japan’s reopening are not representative of international travelers at large. Most people need months of time between booking and traveling; very few plan and take last-minute trips–especially international ones.
Obviously, the easing has to occur at some point and this lag will always play out, but the notion that this moves the needle for fall is misguided. Autumn is already a lost cause. At best, this helps with winter. More likely, the impact won’t be fully felt until next year’s cherry blossom season.
One wildcard is the downgrade of COVID’s legal status. Several recent updates have centered around Japan’s internal debate over whether to strip COVID-19 of its special status and downgrade it to the same level as the flu in Japan’s infectious disease categories.
It’s been our perspective that this was a necessary prerequisite to welcoming individual tourists as there would no longer be a need for a responsible receiving party to monitor travelers and act as a liaison for infected individuals. Given that none of the recent reports have even mentioned COVID’s status in regard to reopening, it’s possible our perspective was wrong. Or, that this barrier does still exist and Japan will have to create a “solution” for it (travel insurance?) for individual tourists. Either way, that’s something to continue keeping in mind.
Also as previously mentioned, recent poll data also shows the public is now far less concerned with COVID than the economy, Unification Church scandal, Abe’s state funeral, and other issues. It’s entirely possible that Kishida sees this polling and his sagging approval numbers and realizes that it’s time to move forward. That there’s more upside than downside risk in reopening and encouraging more economic activity.
As we’ve stressed repeatedly, Japan’s populace has been among the most cautious in the world with regard to COVID-19. Human behavior and sentiment don’t change overnight, even if it’s economically advantageous and objectively safer to do so. Statements by politicians and medical advisors, gradual border relaxation measures, and other changes could be interpreted as Japan laying the groundwork for a resumption of normalcy and the country’s eventual reopening. It now appears that the time is here–or coming very soon.
With all of this said, I’ll present my revised best, worst, and base-case scenarios for Japan’s reopening to individual tourists…
Let’s start with the best-case scenario. This assumes that Japan downgrades COVID-19 from its special status to Category 5 literally any day now or that this is not a necessary prerequisite to an individual tourist reopening. (With the possible workaround of travel insurance or some other awkward “fix.”)
Critically, this would eliminate the legal requirement of a responsible receiving party for visitors to Japan. In such a scenario, the borders could almost immediately return to their normal pre-closure status in early October. With this, the visa exemption would be reinstated, making that a non-issue. The arrivals cap would also be eliminated in this scenario.
Then there’s the middle ground or base case. This is now the same as the best-case scenario. In short, the early October reopening is not just our most optimistic view–it’s now what we expect to happen.
To differentiate the two, I’ll also allow for a middle ground possibility of a bifurcated decision with the individual tourist reopening a few weeks after the entry cap elimination. Let’s say that happens in early November.
This is would allow a bit of wiggle room for Japan’s slow and belabored decision-making process that involves a lot of “careful consideration” and “evaluating the situation.” If anything has been well-established during the last two-plus years, it’s that inaction is Japan’s baseline, and anything that does happen occurs gradually and in stages.
Finally, the worst-case scenario is that Japan instead opts to revive its “Go to Travel” campaign just in time for fall colors season, and uses that to buoy the tourism sector through December. It’s possible the country views this as sufficient for tourism businesses to stave off bankruptcy or other financial hardship for another few months.
If/when there’s another winter resurgence in cases, the reopening can would effectively be kicked down the road for a few more months. That would mean individual tourists would not be welcomed back to Japan until sometime in the first half of 2023. I’m inclined to say Spring 2023, but it’s easy to envision a worst-case that isn’t until summer.
Our view is that the worst-case scenario is now highly unlikely. Japan relaxed its border measures earlier in September while still being #1 in the world for new cases. This indicates that Japan is finally ready to move forward and sets the precedent for future changes during waves. Who knows–it still may take until early 2023 to fully downgrade the legal status of COVID. But whatever winter wave occurs (and one will happen), that’s unlikely to be an obstacle to reopening progress, as was the case last year.
With all of that in mind, we remain cautiously optimistic that individual tourists will be allowed to enter Japan sooner rather than later. The political and economic appetite for fully relaxation now clearly exists, and there’s a vocal chorus of politicians in Japan–including those who were previously in favor of closed borders–championing reopening. It’s now the popular position being advanced publicly by politicians, not just being advocated by Keidanren or Japan’s business lobby.
Japan fully reopening in full is all but inevitable at this point. It will happen soon. The end is near.
It’s thus our view that Japan reopening in some capacity to individual tourists in October is a very realistic scenario. As improbable as it might’ve seemed even a week ago, Japan welcoming back international visitors who are not part of tours (guided or unguided) sometime before November is likely. It’s pretty clear the government is focused on moving forward. As frustrating as this whole process has been, Japan is not still (completely) stuck in March 2020.
As always, Japan is cautious and conservative, with a slow and belabored decision-making process that often embodies “analysis paralysis” and usually defies logic. That’s a wild card that could further extend any timeline. However, Japan is now joining the rest of the world as people are ready to move on with life.
We’ll keep watching the news and keep you posted if/when there are further developments about Japan reopening and allowing entry to travelers from the United States, Canada, Europe, and beyond. Again, if you’d like to be notified as soon as more details are released or rumored, subscribe to our free email newsletter for ongoing updates and alerts:
If you’re planning a visit to Japan, our recommendation at this point is to target sometime in November at the earliest. In our view, koyo (autumn leaves) season is a good bet, and that takes place from mid-November through December. That’s simply a good time to visit Japan and, hopefully, the country will be open to individual tourists by then.
Speaking of which, check out our Japan Fall Colors Forecast & Autumn Foliage Viewing Guide to get started on planning your trip to visit Japan’s popular fall foliage cities, including Kyoto, Tokyo, Mount Fuji, Miyajima, Hiroshima, Himeji, and Nara. That also offers tips for avoiding crowds and strategy for visiting the best temples, shrines, and evening illuminations.
If you’re planning a trip to the Japan, check out our other posts about Japan for ideas on other things to do! We also recommend consulting our Ultimate Guide to Kyoto and Ultimate Guide to Tokyo to plan.
Your Thoughts
Would you consider visiting Japan later this year, or is international travel out of the question for you anytime soon? How do you view the news about guided tours? Think those will stick around for several months, or are simply theater to shift public opinion? Think the need to adapt and live with the endemic virus will outweigh fear when it comes to Japan’s reopening plans? Any thoughts or tips of your own to add? If you’re planning your trip to Japan, what do you think about these itineraries? Any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
This is probably the most pessimistic article I have seen, basically saying don’t expect any decisions until after July parlimentary elections, so it sounds like Summer 2022 is out:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/04/04/national/japan-tourism-opening-coronavirus/
Agree, at best expect North Korea-style group tours in Summer but for anything resembling pre-Covid travel we have to wait until 2023 imho.
The whole Japanese situation is just ridiculous. I have had half a dozen trip (UK) based all over the world in the last 6 months or so. Even South Korea opened last Friday:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/01/south-korea-coronavirus-reopening-quarantine/
I guess there is no “cure” for stupid when it come to Japan.
Good piece in Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-04/japan-s-covid-isolation-has-gone-on-too-long-it-should-open-up-to-tourism
Countries around the world should treat Japanese citizens exactly as foreigners trying to study or work in Japan are treated. Japanese should be denied entries, not be allowed to see their family memebers, partners or friends living abroad, not being allowed to enter other countries for study and under no circumstances be allowed to go abroad for traveling. Why? Only then will they understand the harm they do to others. Or… maybe it’s fine, let them be as they are and destroy their reputation worldwide. Maybe it will teach them how to be a bit more humble.
I do agree. Actually, I wonder why reciprocity is not required among Countries…
Germany pushed for it from Japan early on in the pandemic. They’ve been strangely quiet since. I assume this is because the exemptions for business travellers.
I believe Japan agreed to normalise travel at a G7 meeting last year, yet they aren’t being held to the same standard as the others. Perhaps this will change in the coming months as Japan becomes increasingly isolated globally.
It’s unfortunate that you believe such false information about Japan, but what’s worse is that you are spreading it.
As it currently is, foreign people who are immediate family members of Japanese citizens and permanent residents (i.e. Green Card holders) are allowed to get a visitor’s visa to come meet their family in Japan.
Also, foreign students who have student visas are allowed to enter Japan.
Additionally, foreign workers who have work visas are allowed to enter Japan.
(btw, much of this was explained in the article above, if you cared to read the actual thing you are commenting on.)
And though you didn’t mention it, foreign business people can also enter under invitation, as well as foreign academics, people for foreign cultural exchanges, refugees from Ukraine, and (lest you forgot about the Olympics) foreign sports players. Not to mention diplomats and any foreign resident.
Yes, there is a daily cap on the number of entrants, but by not allowing tourists it specifically allows all these people to enter (you know, the people who you thought couldn’t). And since there are so many people trying to get in, the daily cap (currently 7,000/day) is quickly filled, making it hard for Japanese to freely go abroad themselves. So please don’t believe that millions of Japanese people are flooding abroad to be tourists elsewhere.
Furthermore, Japan restricts their own citizens from entering without quarantine unless the J-citizens have a 3rd booster shot, which is something only about 45% of people currently have (it rises about 0.5 to 1% per day). And this low number is not by choice, but rather its because the government administers all the shots and the other 55% of the country hasn’t been allowed and/or isn’t currently eligible to get their booster (myself included since we need to wait 7 months to get a booster shot, but I was not allowed to get my first 2 shots here in Japan until last October).
As for why there is a daily cap on the number of entrants? This is a logistical issue. Japan (just like many if not most countries) gives PCR tests to all entrants on arrival, whether they are Japanese or foreign.
However, Japan does not have the capacity to test as many people per day as pretty much every other country on earth. Why? I have no idea, but most likely bureaucratic ineptitude. It’s been 2 years but getting a test in Japan is particularly difficult. Just ask anyone in Japan. In Tokyo (which is where nearly all people fly from abroad into) the maximum number of tests given on any single day in the past 2+ years has been 34,000… in a city of 14 million. And this was done just a handful of times at the height of the most recent outbreak. But on any given day in back in 2019, 120,000+ people entered Japan.
Also, for the past several months, about 100 people test positive at the airport on arrival EVERY DAY into Japan despite both the daily cap (again, just 7,000 entrants per day, up from 5000 just a few weeks ago) and despite the fact that all of them somehow must have tested negative within a couple days before their departure.
All of those people will be quarantined (paid by the government) and if tourists were suddenly let in, those numbers would quickly multiply to the point of collapse.
Is this a good method? Can’t Japan have itself more organized by now? Isn’t Japan super-modern? All those questions have much deeper answers (and in Japan, they’re probably answered by fax, which is sadly no joke.), but none have anything to do with Japan trying to annoy impatient and flippant would-be foreign tourists.
As always, Japan is “different” from the rest of the world and the “foreigners” cannot understand it…hmmm kinda annoying.
You say visitors can get in to see family, but I am not seeing how. My kids are on a military base and they are calling any family a “tourist” so we are being denied entry. If you have a way it will work, please share details.
As US military, they are not considered “long-term residents” and the are actually there under DoD.
As I explained, visiting is available for family of Japanese citizens and long-termers who have their version of a “Green Card” (such as spouses of J-citizens, or those with Permanent Resident status).
But you’d be able to visit if your kids are married to a Japanese citizen.
My takeaway from Japanese border shananigan is to remember behind their “mostly” superficial politeness Japanese are as heartless, cruel, stupid and disagreeable as they come. Unfortunately most people have very short memories but lets try to remember this period of utter stupidity and cowardice next time we think of investing our time and energy in Japan. Lest we forget.
To get a better picture of what Japan is doing, go to this site: https://www.kayak.com/travel-restrictions
Select the US for good measure.
Now you can see. With NZ scheduled to not being red anymore next month, Japan will be left alone with either dictatorialships or countries in war, both which were never tourist attractions to begin with (I can assure you not many people would love to check Yemen or Myanmar in 2019)
The question is, do they care.
With a slow cap by cap increase, no plan in sight and little pressure from inside aside of Keidanren, no it doesn’t look like they do.
I also find it useless when I read the new government cliche statement “taking into account the infection situation at home and abroad and border control measures taken by other major nations”
No they are not giving a fuck about control measures taken by other major nations. Tell me another major nation who needed an absurd amount of pressure to reopen for students/workers, as well as capped the number of entrants in a ridiculously low number. There isn’t.
Thank you very much for the monthly update 🙏
Next month it’ll be two full years since my boyfriend and I last met in person.
I sometimes read comments questioning what’s the urge and to just wait until they open, no need to rush, but for some of us, unmarried partners, distant relatives or any strong connection/relationship not recognized as such by Japanese law, entering as tourists is our only option.
Anyone with friends or family in Japan is also aware of how difficult it is for most working people to take even a week of vacation, so often going to Japan to see them is the only option.
I rescheduled my flight (again) for September. I hope it’s the last time I have to change dates 😓 Keeping my fingers crossed 🤞
I hope Japan will fully open the border for tourists on December, 2022, I am planning to travel to Hokkaido Japan this winter.
To all those who have upcoming flight reservations to travel to Japan this spring for tourism:
In mid-April Japan will raise its daily inbound cap to 10,000 per day (this includes Japanese citizens). As mentioned in the article, Japan has a huge line of students and new workers waiting to get in (aside from Japanese returnees), but securing a plane ticket is now particularly difficult. And now with flight restrictions over Russia, it confound the ticket problem even more.
So to all you optimistic would-be ticket-holding foreign tourists, you do realize that the longer it takes for Japan to let in all the students and workers, it means the longer it will take until Japan finally starts to allow tourists like yourself.
Therefore, fancifully holding a reservation for the upcoming couple months when tourist travel is unrealistic thereby further blocks a legitimate visa-holding person from being able to secure a ticket to enter, and this back-log only delays you ability to finally travel to Japan even further.
Selfishly, I’ll admit that I’ve rather enjoyed the lack of over-tourism, but I must also admit that I recognize the strain it has placed on many small businesses and other sectors of the economy built up in reliance on Japan’s growing international tourism machine. This sentiment is common in my circles; older Japanese voters undoubtedly put more weight on the former.
I won’t claim to know when border will or won’t reopen, although I do think the election will be crucial and have more of a role than is discussed here. Public opinion changes fast. Another wave could push reopening until August or later, whereas COVID fading and economic concerns increasing could accelerate it.
Anecdotally, I see much more activity this year for sakura season; most young Japanese appear eager to return to normal.
As someone living in Japan right now, I can tell you that your prediction of “If not by early May 2022, likely by June 2022.” is overly optimistic to the point of being extremely unlikely.
At best, fully monitored group tours may be let in by summer, but Japan has no method to handle a foreign tourist who contracts Covid while here. Sick people, including J-citizens, are considered persona-non-gratis everywhere and must isolate at home. This is obviously not possible for a foreign tourist to do, and hotels don’t want them nor can they travel on any public transport.
Also to consider is the availability of PCR tests for someone to exit Japan and be able to return to their home country. PCR tests are not easily available, particularly anywhere other than Tokyo, nor are they offered in foreign languages including English. And since they are only given at clinics and hospitals, they are extremely hard to get on a weekend or holiday, even for someone that is clearly sick.
And then there is the entry requirement for a 3rd booster shot. Most people have not gotten a booster yet in Japan, and though the number increases daily, millions won’t even be eligible for a booster until May or June (including myself) since the original vaccine rollout was particularly slow last year (I couldn’t get my shots till October) and boosters are only available after 7 months and only given by the government health department. I can not imagine Japan would let in foreign tourists to freely travel about until the whole population has at least had a chance to get boosted, which again, won’t be done till mid/late June. It would be a huge political folly, especially given the upcoming election that is slated for July.
So given these hurdles, Japan will probably first only allow fully monitored group tours, who will have their whole trip controlled from entry to departure, such that the tour companies will be responsible to arrange testing, transport, interpreters, and translations, as well as any quarantine or hospitalization and all the travel disruption this will create for the individual, their family, or the rest of the group.
And if all goes well, maybe in autumn (an optimistic maybe…) normal unrestricted travel shall resume.
Oh, and to Linda Brown (comment above), you can indeed visit your son in Japan if his wife is a J-citizen and/or he is a Permanent Resident. You need to apply for a visitor’s visa at your country’s Japanese Embassy. Immediate family of citizens or PRs are allowed to enter Japan (this includes mother-in-laws).
Thanks Andy really appreciate your realistic take and as long term Japanophile I agree with your assessment. Sadly this is going to take far longer than many are continuing to hope but hey Japanese have a very different idea of time than us. Couple of years to them is blink of an eye.
Whilst I agree with you timeline, your point about tourists not having anywhere to isolate is (well, was, for a lot of countries) no different from everywhere else in the world. Europe has been allowing tourists entry on and off since summer 2020, and it was no different, mostly. You isolate in your hotel room and hope for the best when it comes to finding food. Not many countries had specific isolation accommodation, especially if they contracted covid during their trip (most was saved for airport arrivals, if they had any at all).
Testing is becoming less needed for arrivals in most of Europe, and I suspect the US will follow soon. Asian countries, other than Japan, have either dropped this as of 1st April, or will be soon, for vaccinated tourists.
Soon, Japan will be the only major democratic nation left with borders closed. Quite how they’re getting away with it, I have no idea. They were even part of an agreement to allow international traffic between G7 nations to be as free and mutual as possible last summer, I believe, yet Kishida is using the closed borders as a bragging point to win votes for July’s elections. I hope in the coming months, as the rest of the world opens, there is more pressure put on him by outside sources, as there is literally none currently, and we all know it won’t be coming from inside Japan.
As I said, I agree with your timeline, but let’s not pretend it is justified in any way whatsoever.
Thanks for the consideration, but as you may realize, Japan has their own “way” for domestic issues that is not easily swayed by “foreign” pressure (just ask South Korea). To Japan, whether things are justified in the opinion of the world matters little.
And as far as “isolate in your hotel room and hope for the best when it comes to finding food”, that doesn’t happen in Japan. My wife works in a hotel, and aside from the cleaning protocols if an infected person had been on the premises and then left (and now think of a large-scale hot-spring hotel…), there is zero chance they will let an infected person stay in a room while the rest of the hotel functions normally, particularly if the infected a potentially unruly foreigner they probably can not communicate with. Perhaps in Europe, the US, or elsewhere in Asia this occurs, but not Japan. The stigma of covid infection is still too strong among the public to willingly allow such proximity (people here do not protest in the streets over the restrictions and masks are worn everywhere with uniform compliance)
Furthermore, can you even imagine the disruption it would cause to the booking system if someone had to overstay multiple days, all while the whole staff would need to be continually monitored and undergo costly testing? Again, other countries may allow for it, but Japan is generally not that desperate for foreign customers yet to begin such work-arounds.
Hotels take pride in the “omotenashi” honor to customers, and its unthinkable to allow a guest (particularly a Japanese one) to stay in a room next to an infected person under quarantine (particularly a foreign one), not to mention the idea of potentially cancelling a healthy repeat customer so that a sick foreigner can overstay.
People remember the Diamond Princess mess from the first days of the pandemic and don’t want to allow it on their premises if they can avoid it, and I suppose this is something that I think we can both agree is justifiable
Oh, I agree with you, my point was more how ridiculous Japan is being, not that you were wrong. Apologies, I probably wasn’t clear enough.
Regarding the hotels, I very much doubt they would be told when they had a positive case staying in one of their rooms, if the infected person took the test after arriving in the country for a number of days. You could argue this isn’t right because of the risk of infection to others, but considering the virus is currently (and I stress currently) less deadly than the flu in the UK (feel free to look that up), I think it should be treated as such once the booster rollout is completed in the older age groups in Japan.
Appreciate the thoughtful comment and analysis, but I still have a hard time imagining that Japan will want to be in the same company as China, North Korea, etc. when it comes to borders. International reputation matters, and all of the on-the-ground circumstances you mention are not much different anywhere else (aside from perhaps parts of Europe and US).
At some point, border closures go from politically advantageous to untenable. We’ve seen exactly that happen literally everywhere else in the world (again, save for China) and in a relatively swift manner. Japan might be unique, but let’s not pretend it’s that unique and doesn’t have the exact same political, social, and economic motivations as every other advanced nation.
From our Western perspective it sure as hell doesn’t make sense but to them Japanese it’s not that crazy to keep foreign tourists out for couple of years. No big deal. Andy rightly pointed out stigma and that’s the key in Japan. So long as there is this much stigma (ie shame) attached to Covid they will remain cautious. And do we really think there wont be a new wave or variant come Fall/Winter? Do we really think JPGov wont immediately shut the door if they discover new variant in winter? The mentality needs to change not case numbers and thats exactly why it’s going to take far longer than we even date to imagine.
I truly commend your efforts and optimism with trying to analyze and predict Japan’s future. You have a deep grasp and made many valid points, and while what you said may seem logical to anyone who probably reads this, do realize that the Luddite political class of Japan does not usually operate with such conventional logic.
Many commenters here share your beliefs to the point of still hoping Japan will suddenly change gears and announce a full-scale re-opening in the next couple weeks so they can still travel in May or June, but anyone on the ground in Japan knows that is extremely unlikely.
Yet I don’t want to be pessimistic, I just want to point out the logic of logistics.
Until the 3rd booster shot is fully administered, do not expect any unrestricted re-opening. This will not happen until mid/late June.
Until after the election in July occurs, do not expect any talk of unrestricted re-opening. It’s a political no-go, which no candidate wants to be attached to.
Because until the following 2 questions can be answered to the Japanese public, do not expect any unrestricted re-opening:
-What do we do with an infected gaijin?
-How do we uniformly PCR test all these people in multiple languages within 48-72 hours of their flights so they can go home?
I tried to answer the logistic difficulty with question 1 with my reply to Mr “.” above, but question 2 is another pandora’s box that just can’t be tritely ignored.
Again, ask anyone here about testing and you will only get grumbles. In February, when Japan experienced its worst ever outbreak of Covid, Tokyo could only manage to test just over 30,000 people per day (and with a positive rate of 70%+). This was by far the most they ever tested in 2 full years of the pandemic, and on weekends/holidays that testing number was cut in half. This was the best Tokyo could do for its 14 million people, and they maintained it for about 2 weeks.
But in 2019 well over 100,000 people exited Japan on any given day, both foreigner and Japanese, and the vast majority departed from Tokyo. Simply put, Japan does not currently have the logistical ability to provide PCR tests for all those who seek to depart on top of all those actual citizens who may be sick and seeking a test, let alone to test in multiple languages, and do it 7 days a week so as to have results within a couple day time-frame. And if by now they haven’t been able to ramp up testing for the health and safety of its own people, I doubt they will be compelled to somehow do so for foreign tourists.
So until the vast majority of countries drop their pre-departure PCR test entry requirement, do not expect any unrestricted re-opening.
I fully agree that at some point border closures become untenable, but untenable for who? For the wold stage, border restrictions on business or academia or sport or cultural exchange hurt both sides. Pressure did indeed mount from abroad on this and Japan is now responding with finally letting many of those people in, in a restricted way.
But this pressure become lopsided with tourism. Take the US and Japan as an example. When a couple million Americans travel to Japan this does benefit some US based travel agents and some US airlines, but it is a huge loss for the US economy as a whole when these people take billions of dollars and literally give it to Japan. This is only offset when millions of Japanese conversely travel to the US and give over all their yen.
So while individual travelers and some travel related companies may want Japan to re-open, the world really doesn’t care, especially if business and education travel is allowed and Japanese people can freely travel abroad and bring all their yen with them. This scenario of Japan being closed to inbound tourism yet open for outbound tourism is actually a win-win for everyone… except Japan.
So the only meaningful pressure to fully re-open can only come domestically, and it just isn’t here yet in any substantial way. To be honest, most people kinda like not having crowds of foreigners cluttering up Kyoto, jabbering loudly on trains, and generally bedeviling the efficient calmness of Japan. And again, until those questions are answered, its gonna be a hard sell to convince them it’s somehow wise to change this.
Regarding question 2, as I pointed out before, most major economies either don’t or won’t require testing to enter for vaccined residents or tourists. Do we really think Japan will let it unvaccined tourists?
Question 2 isn’t a question that will need answering. Question 1, on the other hand…
Umm, I don’t know the current deal for today (April 3) but I think the US still requires a negative PCR test within 24 hours of travel for vaccinated citizens to return home, and for most of Europe (but not the UK) its a negative test within 48 to 72 hours of travel, as well as most of East Asia like Korea and Hong Kong (but starting April 1, not Thailand).
Canada stopped this requirement also on Apr 1, but for most people, question 2 is still very pertinent.
I appreciate you probably haven’t travelled much during the pandemic, being in Japan and all, but you are quite outdated.
The US, since reopening in November, has required a test, but this can be a rapid lateral flow test. Basically, you can bring these with you in your trip, then take them over video call with a “doctor”, and if you test negative, they will produce your certificate for you. This system was used for the majority of the EU last summer. I expect the US will get rid of the testing requirement for vaccinated travellers in the next couple of months, as most of the West is/has already.
You will also find that the majority of Europe doesn’t require any testing for most vaccinated individuals, and especially for nationals.
Hong Kong is still closed, but South Korea doesn’t require testing for vaccinated travellers.
Tom is very much correct when it comes to Japan being increasingly isolated when it comes to its border controls. How much that actually matters is the debate.
The summary of your interesting and realistic comment seems that Japan as always is “different” from the rest of the world. Everything is slow and complicated. This is surely also part of its undoubted fascination but sometimes it is irritating. Who knows where they will find the billions of yen that Abe hoped to get with the goal of increasing international tourism? Given the economic crisis affecting the Country, perhaps from further public debt? How long will the system without young people and immigrants hold up?
Australia currently requires *either* a PCR or rapid test within the 72 hours prior to departing for Australia, and the traveler to be double vaccinated.
This pre departure test requirement is being dropped in 2 weeks, with the only test required being within 48 hours of arriving.
Australian residents who aren’t vaccinated can still travel, but they enter hotel quarantine for 7 days.
Many countries are either dropping their pre travel test requirements entirely, or reverting to allowing rapid testing over PCR tests, even while many large airports all over the world have been increasing their on site rapid result PCR testing capabilities.
I entered Japan 6 times in 2019. I had just started planning a trip for Golden Week 2020 (and events which were later cancelled) when everything was shut down.
I was in Kyoto during the Rugby World Cup (my trip just happened to be at the same time, I had no interest in that event). Even I, as a foreigner, was annoyed by the loud arrogance of the “crowds of foreigners”, especially while visiting Fushimi Inari-taisha.
Claiming that all foreigners “jabber loudly on trains”, etc is rude and disrespectful to those that don’t. People who don’t make nuisances of themselves aren’t as noticeable as those who do. Just because many of the public nuisances in Japan are foreigners, it doesn’t mean that all foreigners are nuisances.
I respect your opinion and admire your optimism, but don’t you think the government is going to wait until after the elections in July to allow tourism? We’ve seen how high the border measures poll, albeit their approval is slowly decreasing.
On balance, I think the economic boost provided by a resumption of international travel (especially with a weakening yen) coupled with the signal that Japan has “conquered” COVID will have more political value than the border closure polling. There’s a reason every other country has accelerated reopening plans even amidst Omicron and it’s not entirely dictated by public health–it’s that people are ready to move on and COVID is receding as a primary concern among voters.
That is, unless another variant emerges and spikes case numbers significantly.
It is possible. This happened in the UK last summer. At one point, polling showed that roughly 20% of the population never wanted the borders to open ever again, as well as permanent 10pm curfews! Once the UK government ditched restrictions, public opinion did quickly change, however, they were in the position where there isn’t going to be an election until 2024, the Japanese government doesn’t have that luxury.
The JATA are still pushing the supervised group tour idea for this summer. It was mentioned as recently as two weeks ago. No idea why, as no westerner will want to take part, and the Chinese won’t be able to, but they seem to be pushing for it.
It’s all really still a guessing game at this point.
I’ve taken round the world holidays each year since 2006, and 1 or 2 short trips most years to Japan or the US (other then 2020 and 2021 for obvious reasons). Japan has been a stop on that yearly RTW holiday each time except once.
My current passport, issued SEP 2014, has 15 JP entry stamps.
I don’t like the idea of tour groups. I find the concept to be extremely limiting and quite boring. The only time I would consider joining a tour group would be for things that you can’t just go to otherwise as part of a larger trip. eg, going on a Korean DMZ tour while already in Korea for a longer “self guided” holiday.
If the option is joining a supervised group tour, and being stuck with some tour companies restrictive itinerary, or not going, I won’t go.
Japan never did and never will have a plan, it’ll just come as a surprise announcement out of nowhere from someone close to the government, as it has been.
Their silence kills us in expectaction but, yeah, I think more news will come only by the end of this month. I guess something like increasing the cap to 30000 daily maybe, but still no tourists.
And again, I don’t think that when they reopen for tourists will be a step by step thing, they will reopen the same way as Australia did.
But as always, we gotta wait in the dark, making guesses for a country that refuses to be more clear and refuses to show that they care. Much like their rivals China. But for completely different (and wrong) reasons.
Hi Tom,
Love skiing in Japan and have skied there since 2015. I have booked flights from Sydney to Japan in 2023 to go skiing, I love your updates about Japan reopening to tourists. Can’t wait to hear that tourists can come into Japan.
Hey tom. Could not find the new country list. Do know which ones are mentioned from latin america as possibly allowed?
Thanks
Japan airlines has just suspended the Melbourne Tokyo route until at least July.
I have grandchildren in Japan I haven’t seen in 2 years. Are grandparents visiting their grandchildren considered tourists? My heart is breaking!
How can you differientiate between a tourist and a visitor? I have a son who lives in Tokyo with his Japanese wife and 2 sons, my grandsons, one of which I have not yet met apart from video chats. I don’t count myself as a tourist any more, just someone desperate to visit and spend time with my family. Do you think getting my son or his in-laws to sponsor me, I could apply to enter now?
You can currently visit your son in Japan if his wife is a J-citizen and/or he is a Permanent Resident. They can sponsor you. You need to apply for a visitor’s visa at your country’s Japanese Embassy. Immediate family of citizens or PRs are allowed to enter Japan from just about any country (this includes mother-in-laws).
I have a holiday booked to visit Tokyo in the first week of September this year. I have everything crossed they will be open then and no need to quarantine on arrival (I am fully vaccinated). I thank you for your updates and hope that I will be able to go on my holiday. 🤞✈️
This does not sound promising. I’m wondering how close I should get to my travel date of May 12, 2022 before I give up hope and re-book to travel in June 2022.
The downside to a June travel date is the fact that the oil crisis has impacted fuel prices so my same flight the following month is currently listed at $815 higher than the current ticket.
I keep following your newsletters, and I admire your optimism! However as someone with tickets to leave the US the end of April, I wish there was more concrete information!
Totally agree. It’s odd that Japan hasn’t unveiled a reopening plan or exit strategy at this point, especially given that New Zealand and so many other countries have done so. The government has largely escaped international media and public scrutiny for its closed borders, but that won’t continue to be the case when it’s only Japan and China that are still closed to the world.
My best guess is that they’re taking a wait and see approach with sakura season and Golden Week, wanting to get past those and see a bit more of a decline in new cases. I guess that’s better than announcing something and then backtracking on it, as they did way back in late 2020.
Whats really surprising is you guys still getting surprised at what Japan does lol. The rest of the world has/is accepting to live with high case numbers not hoping to lower them thats why Thailand is dropping pre departure test and Singapore is not balking at folks flying in from UK (which is in the midst of 2nd Omicron wave as we speak). What you’re really asking for is for Japan to accept COVID and live with it and thats a hard sell for all the reasons you mention in your article least of which elderly and xenophobic population. They will open at some point but why not just chill and stop obsessing day and night about this one country out of all the places you can visit right now.
I know you think most of us are cray cray but some of us have family that live in Japan and we haven’t seen in years. It’s really heartbreaking.
If Japan population of more than 90% gets vaccinated with booster shots, I am guessing they will open up gradually just like any other countries and live with pandemic since Omicron variant is less severe. I am staying in Singapore and we have already open up to more countries as to us it’s like a common flu now as long as you are fully vaccinated with booster shots. We have reach nearly 92%. Thank you for your insight info and hopefully some important official will read your article as you make sense on your analyzation.