Is Japan Open to Tourists?

Is Japan open for international individual travelers? Are borders open as normal in 2024? What are testing, face mask, and vaccine requirements for visitors? These are questions among those planning trips to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and this covers the answers.

The good news is that we now have an answer to questions we’ve been asking for nearly two years! First, after reopening to guided tour groups, Japan reopened to individual tourists on October 11, 2022. In the year-plus since, additional changes have occurred to the extent that it’s basically business as usual for visiting Japan in 2024.

We’ve already returned to Japan, spending about a month in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and elsewhere. In various updates here, we’ve been sharing our experiences and what it’s like as a foreign visitor, what has changed, crowd conditions, expenses of visiting Japan with the weaker yen, and much more. The big one for most of you is likely going to be Japan Face Mask Rules v. Reality in 2024.

Those two posts cover essentially everything you need to know about visiting Japan as of 2024. The short version is that it is possible to enter, regardless of whether you’re vaccinated or unvaccinated, albeit with a testing requirement for the latter. There are no quarantine requirements, and travel is visa-free for the vast majority of people reading this.

Please subscribe to our FREE email newsletter and stay tuned if you are curious about how things are on-the-ground for tourists in Japan post-reopening.

In terms of the latest news, the current vaccine and testing policies ended on May 8, 2023. This is because Japan has formally decided to downgrade the legal status of the novel coronavirus on May 8, 2023 to the same category as common infectious diseases, such as seasonal influenza, thereby easing COVID-19 prevention rules.

This is a major policy shift and will relax–if not eliminate entirely–Japan’s intensive COVID-19 countermeasures, including limiting the movements of infected people and their close contacts. Japan’s reclassification of COVID-19 to Class 5 came after a panel of experts under the health ministry agreed on the plan earlier in the day.

The downgrade would pave the way for a normalization of social and economic activities in Japan, and should mean that non-residents are able to enter the country without PCR tests or additional paperwork. Essentially, there will be no (legal) basis for the current border protocol effective May 8, 2023. Of course, things could change between now and then, but it’s likely the border will revert to late 2019 status as of that date.

We typically spend a couple of months in Japan each year, and are ecstatic to be returning after nearly 3 years away. We are eager to revisit our favorite places, see friends in Japan for the first time in over two years, and continue creating this site’s wealth of free planning resources. We’re excited about this great (but overdue) news, but also go in knowing that things will be different, in ways both good and bad.

For these two-plus years, we’ve been closely monitoring the situation in Japan, watching several hours of NHK each day and reading multiple Japanese news sources. All of this in the hope for some clarity as to when the country will fully reopen and Japan will begin allowing international tourists to enter once again.

What follows is based on that research and fixation with the on-the-ground situation in Japan. We’re preserving this for posterity, but everything that follows is now (thankfully!) obsolete information.

Japan is now allowing foreign nationals to enter Japan for purposes other than tourism so long as they have a sponsor in the country. This includes business travelers on short stays, students in study abroad programs, participants in technical internships, both guided & unguided tour groups, spouses or children (and other relatives) of a Japanese national/permanent resident, others with special exceptional circumstances, and those who would provide a “public benefit” to Japan.

With that in mind, let’s cover how we got here, why Japan maintains the strictest among the Group of Seven developed nations, and what could cause that to change…

Again and again, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said that Japan “will continue to consider how the measures should be by taking into account the infection situations at home and abroad, border control measures taken by other nations, and progress in the rollout of vaccine boosters.”

Kishida has also acknowledged that Japan’s border control measures are the strictest among Group of Seven nations, and expressed a desire/need to bring Japan in line with its counterparts. “This is the first step in our gradual easing of the [border] restrictions,” Kishida has said.

As for why Japan’s border is still closed over a year after most democracies reopened, that can largely be explained by the country’s apprehensiveness of outsiders.

For better or worse, Japan is an insular and culturally conservative country–a characteristic that is often valued by visitors. Not so much in the last couple of years, as this has been reflected in policy-making. Japan has vilified and scapegoated foreigners and had an overly aggressive approach to its borders.

Due to this and other policies, Japan has lagged behind economically, seeing slower recovery than the United States and other counterparts that have more aggressively reopened. Economic benefits of international tourists is one big reason why Japan is expected to reopen its border.

Boosting tourism was core to the late former Prime Minister Abe’s economic revitalization, and both subsequent prime ministers have indicated their intentions to maintain continuity with those plansHowever, the number of foreign visitors to Japan dropped to 245,900 last year, the lowest since 1964, as the country enforced tighter border controls. Compared with the pre-pandemic level in 2019, it dropped 99.2 percent. That’s the sharpest fall on record according to the Japan Tourism Agency.

Economists fear a “double dip” recession in Japan due to the prolonged closures and restrictions. Decreased tourism plus falling exports, an increased consumption tax, reduced consumer spending, weak yen, and growing national debt. Japan’s economy has serious issues and inbound tourism was previously a bright spot.

In other words, reopening to international visitors will be important to the health of Japan’s consumption-driven economy at some point in the not too distant future. This becomes increasingly true as the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan continuing to pursue its loose monetary policy while the United States Federal Reserve, European, and other central banks raise interest rates. Quite simply, Japan is inflicting pain on itself by remaining closed.

There are also signs that stringent travel measures, including the border closure, are having a greater impact on Japan’s economy than previously believed. This is despite Japan’s “Go to Travel” campaign that subsidized domestic travel, which was offered at various times during the last two years.

According to data from the Japan Tourism Agency, stays at hotels and other accommodation facilities hit another record low in Japan last year–breaking the previous record set in 2020. The total of guests at hotels and inns was 315.75 million, down 4.8% from 2020 and 47% from 2019. (This number includes hotels used as government quarantine facilities, not just leisure stays.)

The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party recognizes these problems and realizes it needs to rebuild Japan’s economy. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that his top priority was formulating new economic measures and implementing these goals. The government will also take measures to stimulate and jump-start the economy.

Despite the aforementioned numbers, Japan is maintaining its goal of attracting 60 million foreign visitors by 2030. Additionally, the Japan National Tourism Organization has set 2024 as its goal for recovering to 2019 international travel levels. Both of these statements are reassuring given the current border closures, and indicate that Japan will unwind its travel ban in months, not years.

Against that economic backdrop, let’s take a look at the latest changes to Japan’s reopening plans…

We have more good news! Multiple media outlets, including NHK, Kyodo, Nikkei, and Fuji TV are all reporting that Japan’s government is planning to further relax restrictions and border measures with an eye to implementing the revisions by the start of October.

The specifics are not consistent among outlets, so let’s start with where they’re in agreeance.

First, there is consensus that the daily arrival cap, which is currently set at 50,000, will be eliminated entirely.

This is a necessary prerequisite for further reopening and the resumption of more inbound international flights, but this alone was not an obstacle dissuading most international visitors. While the daily number of arrivals was higher pre-closure, we assumed that 50,000 is the level at which this cap becomes immaterial with China still sidelined. Regardless, it’s good to have this removed as it eliminates an element of uncertainty and could have been an issue during peak travel times for the Japanese.

Another possibility is that Japan will allow individual foreign tourists to enter the country and exempt them from visas if they have been vaccinated three times or submit a pre-arrival test result.

This is where there is disagreement among the major outlets. Kyodo, Nikkei, and NHK are reporting that this is to be determined, with government officials still deciding whether to proceed with this plan or start with lifting the daily arrival cap. By contrast, Fuji TV is treating this as a done deal, using less ambiguous language.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly plans to make a decision as early as the end of this week, according to the news outlets’ sources.

These “leaks” came after Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara spoke on Fuji TV over the weekend and stated that Japan will consider easing all three restrictions–the daily arrival cap, ban on individual tourists, and visa requirements. “We will review all three restrictions together. We have to carry it out in the not-so-distant future,” he said.

“Japan has seasonal attractions in fall and winter. We know there are a lot of people overseas who want to come to Japan,” Kihara added. “Amid the weakening yen, inbound travelers will have greatest economic effect…There are many foreign visitors who want to come visit Japan.” Kihara added that eliminating the arrival cap alone was not enough.

Kihara isn’t the only one who has been vocal about fully reopening to tourists recently. During the Bloomberg New Voices panel, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said she would open the country’s doors “tomorrow” if it were her decision. “Tourism is a big industry in Tokyo, as well as in all Japan, so this is the time to greet more foreign tourists by using this advantage of the depreciation of the yen,” she said.

Koike said that Japan’s borders would fully reopen soon. “The national border is under the management of central government,” Koike said. “As governor of Tokyo, that would be tomorrow.”

The yen has fallen to a 24-year low of ¥144 to the dollar, likely contributing to the sense of urgency in the aforementioned interviews.

Japan eased its border restrictions last week, raising the daily arrival cap from 20,000 to 50,000 and dropping the requirement for pre-arrival PCR testing for vaccinated travelers.

Japan also began allowing unguided tours, meaning ones not accompanied by tour conductors. This is specifically for “unguided tour groups” or “non-escorted visitors on package tours” and not individual tourists.

In Unguided Tours in Japan – Reopening Phase Rules, we cover what this entails and the recently-released guidelines and FAQ for these tours. Prior to those guidelines being released, we speculated on how this would work given basic logic and past precedent with prior groups who had been allowed to enter Japan. We were wrong–the unguided tours offered two steps forward but one step backwards.

We mention this in part to own past mistakes, but also as a cautionary tale. While it certainly sounds like the end is near for the Japan travel ban, it’s premature to have a high degree of confidence.

Kishida’s government has been trying to take advantage of the weak yen and accelerate growth by attracting more foreign visitors. It thus stands to reason that opening to individual tourists necessarily needs to occur–that raising the entry cap will do nothing in furtherance of their stated goal. However, as we have seen time and time again, the patently obvious conclusion often is not the outcome reached by Japan.

Moreover, how this played out with Japan’s last announcement is also instructive.

On August 23, specifics of the September relaxation measures were leaked to the same media outlets. At that time, it was unclear whether unguided tourists would be allowed to enter. On August 31, Kishida made an official announcement encompassing all of the rumored changes, including unguided tourists. (It took a few more days for the guidelines to be released, and the clarifying FAQ is still being updated.)

While presenting the above as a cautionary tale against optimism or over reliance on logic when assessing Japan’s decisions, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. (I’m sorry, I can’t help myself. Like a moth to a flame.)

First, there’s already the realization that unguided tours–like guided tours before them–will not move the needle on inbound tourism in any meaningful way. It’s another symbolic measure, and coming at a time when an increasing number of international visitors have already moved on to other destinations and pent-up demand has begun fizzling out. The number of people anxiously awaiting Japan’s reopening is shrinking, not growing.

Second, there’s awareness within the Kishida administration that the window of opportunity to reopen the border is closing. This is something we’ve pointed out in our best and worst case scenarios in prior updates, but there’s only a limited amount of time between waves.

Over two years into this, the seasonality of COVID transmission is well-established. Cases are currently in freefall and will continue decreasing next month before bottoming out sometime between late October and early November. There will be a winter resurgence. It could start as soon as late November, but is more likely in December.

Reopening to individual tourists in October presents minimal (political) risk and maximum (economic) upside. Public opinion polls show that most voters have already moved on from COVID to assorted scandals; the minority who still care will see no immediate increase in cases correlating with the border reopening.

Frankly, the miscalculation here by the Kishida administration is thinking that this will have an immediate impact on inbound travel. Those reading regular updates on Japan’s reopening are not representative of international travelers at large. Most people need months of time between booking and traveling; very few plan and take last-minute trips–especially international ones.

Obviously, the easing has to occur at some point and this lag will always play out, but the notion that this moves the needle for fall is misguided. Autumn is already a lost cause. At best, this helps with winter. More likely, the impact won’t be fully felt until next year’s cherry blossom season.

One wildcard is the downgrade of COVID’s legal status. Several recent updates have centered around Japan’s internal debate over whether to strip COVID-19 of its special status and downgrade it to the same level as the flu in Japan’s infectious disease categories.

It’s been our perspective that this was a necessary prerequisite to welcoming individual tourists as there would no longer be a need for a responsible receiving party to monitor travelers and act as a liaison for infected individuals. Given that none of the recent reports have even mentioned COVID’s status in regard to reopening, it’s possible our perspective was wrong. Or, that this barrier does still exist and Japan will have to create a “solution” for it (travel insurance?) for individual tourists. Either way, that’s something to continue keeping in mind.

Also as previously mentioned, recent poll data also shows the public is now far less concerned with COVID than the economy, Unification Church scandal, Abe’s state funeral, and other issues. It’s entirely possible that Kishida sees this polling and his sagging approval numbers and realizes that it’s time to move forward. That there’s more upside than downside risk in reopening and encouraging more economic activity.

As we’ve stressed repeatedly, Japan’s populace has been among the most cautious in the world with regard to COVID-19. Human behavior and sentiment don’t change overnight, even if it’s economically advantageous and objectively safer to do so. Statements by politicians and medical advisors, gradual border relaxation measures, and other changes could be interpreted as Japan laying the groundwork for a resumption of normalcy and the country’s eventual reopening. It now appears that the time is here–or coming very soon.

With all of this said, I’ll present my revised best, worst, and base-case scenarios for Japan’s reopening to individual tourists…

Let’s start with the best-case scenario. This assumes that Japan downgrades COVID-19 from its special status to Category 5 literally any day now or that this is not a necessary prerequisite to an individual tourist reopening. (With the possible workaround of travel insurance or some other awkward “fix.”)

Critically, this would eliminate the legal requirement of a responsible receiving party for visitors to Japan. In such a scenario, the borders could almost immediately return to their normal pre-closure status in early October. With this, the visa exemption would be reinstated, making that a non-issue. The arrivals cap would also be eliminated in this scenario.

Then there’s the middle ground or base case. This is now the same as the best-case scenario. In short, the early October reopening is not just our most optimistic view–it’s now what we expect to happen.

To differentiate the two, I’ll also allow for a middle ground possibility of a bifurcated decision with the individual tourist reopening a few weeks after the entry cap elimination. Let’s say that happens in early November.

This is would allow a bit of wiggle room for Japan’s slow and belabored decision-making process that involves a lot of “careful consideration” and “evaluating the situation.” If anything has been well-established during the last two-plus years, it’s that inaction is Japan’s baseline, and anything that does happen occurs gradually and in stages.

Finally, the worst-case scenario is that Japan instead opts to revive its “Go to Travel” campaign just in time for fall colors season, and uses that to buoy the tourism sector through December. It’s possible the country views this as sufficient for tourism businesses to stave off bankruptcy or other financial hardship for another few months.

If/when there’s another winter resurgence in cases, the reopening can would effectively be kicked down the road for a few more months. That would mean individual tourists would not be welcomed back to Japan until sometime in the first half of 2023. I’m inclined to say Spring 2023, but it’s easy to envision a worst-case that isn’t until summer.

Our view is that the worst-case scenario is now highly unlikely. Japan relaxed its border measures earlier in September while still being #1 in the world for new cases. This indicates that Japan is finally ready to move forward and sets the precedent for future changes during waves. Who knows–it still may take until early 2023 to fully downgrade the legal status of COVID. But whatever winter wave occurs (and one will happen), that’s unlikely to be an obstacle to reopening progress, as was the case last year.

With all of that in mind, we remain cautiously optimistic that individual tourists will be allowed to enter Japan sooner rather than later. The political and economic appetite for fully relaxation now clearly exists, and there’s a vocal chorus of politicians in Japan–including those who were previously in favor of closed borders–championing reopening. It’s now the popular position being advanced publicly by politicians, not just being advocated by Keidanren or Japan’s business lobby.

Japan fully reopening in full is all but inevitable at this point. It will happen soon. The end is near.

It’s thus our view that Japan reopening in some capacity to individual tourists in October is a very realistic scenario. As improbable as it might’ve seemed even a week ago, Japan welcoming back international visitors who are not part of tours (guided or unguided) sometime before November is likely. It’s pretty clear the government is focused on moving forward. As frustrating as this whole process has been, Japan is not still (completely) stuck in March 2020.

As always, Japan is cautious and conservative, with a slow and belabored decision-making process that often embodies “analysis paralysis” and usually defies logic. That’s a wild card that could further extend any timeline. However, Japan is now joining the rest of the world as people are ready to move on with life.

We’ll keep watching the news and keep you posted if/when there are further developments about Japan reopening and allowing entry to travelers from the United States, Canada, Europe, and beyond. Again, if you’d like to be notified as soon as more details are released or rumored, subscribe to our free email newsletter for ongoing updates and alerts:

If you’re planning a visit to Japan, our recommendation at this point is to target sometime in November at the earliest. In our view, koyo (autumn leaves) season is a good bet, and that takes place from mid-November through December. That’s simply a good time to visit Japan and, hopefully, the country will be open to individual tourists by then.

Speaking of which, check out our Japan Fall Colors Forecast & Autumn Foliage Viewing Guide to get started on planning your trip to visit Japan’s popular fall foliage cities, including Kyoto, Tokyo, Mount Fuji, Miyajima, Hiroshima, Himeji, and Nara. That also offers tips for avoiding crowds and strategy for visiting the best temples, shrines, and evening illuminations.

If you’re planning a trip to the Japan, check out our other posts about Japan for ideas on other things to do! We also recommend consulting our Ultimate Guide to Kyoto and Ultimate Guide to Tokyo to plan.

Your Thoughts

Would you consider visiting Japan later this year, or is international travel out of the question for you anytime soon? How do you view the news about guided tours? Think those will stick around for several months, or are simply theater to shift public opinion? Think the need to adapt and live with the endemic virus will outweigh fear when it comes to Japan’s reopening plans? Any thoughts or tips of your own to add? If you’re planning your trip to Japan, what do you think about these itineraries? Any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!

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  1. saera
    saera says:

    Thank you for continuing to update this so diligently.

    ““While international travel won’t make or break the economy, it’s an easy-to-observe metric that may shape public sentiment,” said Kenneth Mori McElwain of the University of Tokyo. It’s also a signifier of normalcy and recovery, and after 2 years of this, people are ready to get on with life.”

    Note that the general Japanese public largely has NO idea borders are closed to tourists. This is not a thing that affects their lives at all and they are mostly completely unaware of it. I’ve talked to so many friends telling me to come back for a visit (I lived in Japan for 7 years) and when I inform them I’d love to but I can’t, they are all surprised. Other friends report similar things. So any speculation based around “People want things to go back to normal [therefore the borders should reopen soon]” is false, as unfortunately no one knows or cares.

    The rumor/general thinking now is that it might (MIGHT) reopen after the elections. Until then, they don’t want to risk bad press keeping politicians from getting reelected.

    Reply
    • .
      . says:

      Why would opening risk keeping politicians re-elected if the population already thinks the border is open to tourists?

      I agree with you on your timeline, but your point makes no sense.

    • AndyO
      AndyO says:

      As a foreign resident of Japan, I can agree that many people are clueless about tourism being fully banned. Some may think their country is probably open at least to a degree because foreigners can be seen going around (but they fail to realize these are all foreign residents). Also, most foreign tourists congeal in the same handful of places (Tokyo, Kyoto, etc) so the vast majority of the country never really came upon them much even during the boom years before Covid.

      Yet I’m sure that if you ask most people in most other countries they too won’t know the current immigration situation on foreign tourists to their own country.

      Many people here ask if I will visit my family abroad and when I say its still too difficult, they assume I mean for entering foreign countries, but they are shocked to hear that going abroad is easy (“What? Europe and the US have no restrictions?”) and that the problem is with my return back to Japan (as many here are aware, only in the past 6 weeks or so has Japan phased out quarantine on arrival, but only if someone is boosted with a 3rd shot. I got my paperwork in the mail last week and I am now scheduled to finally get my 3rd booster on June 8th. According to the schedule sheet, people in my town will still be getting boosters well into July, with kids after that. Big cities have different schedules, but my town is no different than others of similar size, and I assure you Japan will not re-open until all people nationwide have at least been given the opportunity to get boosted).

      I think politicians in Japan, no matter which party they are in, just want to keep the entire border-opening concept out of the public eye, particularly in regards to the idea of changing the status quo. Since people don’t really give thought about immigration policies, any change will make it in the news and put it in people’s minds, which leads to people asking questions they hadn’t been considering, which leads to policy decisions being discussed in public, which then leads to responsibility and finger-pointing if anything at all goes sour from these changes.

      Remember, Covid fumbles already cost two Prime Ministers their jobs in Japan.

  2. trav2001
    trav2001 says:

    Check out the collapse of JPY, now approaching lowest level to USD since 1997. Imagine what your almighty Dollar could do if were allowed to roam freely in Japan, Imagine…

    Reply
    • Tom Bricker
      Tom Bricker says:

      I’ve been watching that and salivating. On the plus side, each week brings new lows–and unless the BoJ alters course on its easy money policy, it’ll likely only get better as the Fed and EU central banks raise rates.

    • trav2001
      trav2001 says:

      Yeah JPY has room to weaken further but the repo rate increase by Fed doesn’t bode well for the economy. I’m afraid we are on the brink of a long recession. Japan’s 2nd lost decade isn’t so far fetched imho

    • Frosty
      Frosty says:

      The fact that he finally mentioned tourism and wanting to take steps to relax the borders and jumpstart the economy is nice to see!

    • Tom Bricker
      Tom Bricker says:

      Between that and Shigeru Omi’s interview (among other things), it really appears like the government is trying to shift public sentiment and prepare people for a border reopening.

    • Frosty
      Frosty says:

      I hope so, god knows when they’ll act on it but it’s nice to see them finally taking steps (baby steps at that, but steps nonetheless)

    • Renzo
      Renzo says:

      Upon my return to the glorious and superior nation of Japan I shall prostrate myself and pledge to commit Hara Kiri if I fail to honor my responsibilities as a foreign devil tourist

    • AndyO
      AndyO says:

      Yeah, they really need to shift the public perception, and the timing of his statements are falling in line with the upcoming Golden Week holiday. Businesses desperately want people to travel, but people fear being ostracizing by co-workers, neighbors, and even family if they do so.

      I personally know many people, particularly those who have government based jobs such as city office workers, community organizers, and especially school teachers, who are either told not to go out-of-prefecture for vacation travel by their bosses and/or are just afraid to do so because of looking bad among their co-workers.

      As far as going abroad as a leisure tourist, for the vast majority of Japanese that is still incomprehensible (people would be shocked to hear “I’m going to Hawaii this Golden Week”), and this perception needs to massively shift before allowing back in foreign tourists.

      In Kishida’s quote he specifically mentions loosening border controls in conjunction with establishing “thorough treatment systems”, which refers to what I’ve been saying all along that the borders will only fully and freely open once there is a nationwide system set up to deal with testing and managing sick foreign tourists.

    • Tom Bricker
      Tom Bricker says:

      That’s a great point about mobility within Japan and changing public stigmas, as the domestic tourism industry also needs to recover.

      I still think you’re overthinking logistics of the border reopening. Japan never had a sufficient testing apparatus to begin with–why would that change at this late stage? It seems more likely the country will follow the recommendations of Keidanren, declaring COVID endemic, while improving treatment and self-testing options. At this point, most countries are dismantling public testing infrastructure–not improving it.

      Is Japan really that much different in this regard? It would seem that lower numbers in the official case counts would quietly help accomplish several goals at this point.

    • AndyO
      AndyO says:

      No, I don’t think Japan will increase its testing system, and already mentioned that before.

      And as far as “is Japan different?”, well, with the way that Japan is still closed, then obviously yes.

      Yet, again, Japan does not have the logistical capacity to test a substantial increase of inbound arrivals, and also can’t manage the quarantine of an increased number of positive cases among new entrants either. Japan also has no system to manage and/or treat foreign tourists who get sick while within the country.

      So then, what’s the solution in regards to allowing inbound foreign tourists?

      -Either fully scrap testing of arrivals and just turn a blind eye if they get sick while in Japan (this will only happen once Covid is considered a non-concern, despite what science says. Science doesn’t matter with “the way” things are done in Japan),

      -or (for an initial step until Covid is a non-concern) allow foreign tourists within managed groups with the tour agencies responsible for managing any testing, quarantine, or illness issues. This lets in tourists, particularly rich ones, and satisfies businesses, particularly high-end ones, and those are they main 2 groups Keidanren cares about.

      Right now to enter any hotel in Japan (as well as any gov’t building like a city hall or library) you need to get a temperature check at the door. Got a fever? Then no entry. They literally have staffed checkpoints.

      If this system doesn’t change, yet foreign tourists are freely allowed to travel around, then there will be a lot of gaijin sleeping on the street just because they have a slight fever due just a common cold or from eating a bad piece of sushi.

      And changing that system and/or perception will not just suddenly happen the day after the July election.

    • .
      . says:

      Andy, literally everything you have mentioned in your comment has had to change in every other developed nation. Nothing you listed is unique to Japan, other than the fact they’re still doing it. Change the government narrative tomorrow and watch how quickly opinion changes for the young and working age groups.

      For the record, the science says Omicron, and all variants of omicron are less deadly than the flu for vaccinated people. Issues are caused when there are mass outbreaks by pure numbers alone, of course.

    • Frosty
      Frosty says:

      I agree with “.” If the country were to announce an opening of borders the shift in public opinion would be crazy. People are only so frightened of covid because they are told they should be (not saying its not scary). Japan has already put out a statement saying that Omicron is far weaker and should not halt public activities. I believe that if Japan announced a return to tourism after golden week it wouldn’t take long for the public to be ok with it.

  3. AndyO
    AndyO says:

    Until now I would have said that its overblown for someone to complain that Japanese are allowed to enter anywhere as tourists yet not vice-versa.

    Despite being allowed to enter many countries, outbound tourism from Japan hasn’t really been possible in significant numbers due to the daily entrant cap, which included Japanese nationals (now at 10,000/day), and the (*supposed*) focus of the government to prioritize entry for all the waiting visa holding new students, as well as new workers, and other business people, all of which number in the 100s of thousands. They hoped that the backlog (just for students) would clear up by the end of May since securing an inbound ticket was so hard.

    Well, as of April 15 out-bound tourism is now being actively promoted for Golden Week (which is late April to early May) and Japanese tour companies are now taking bookings for places like Hawaii, while the airlines (JAL and ANA) will be increasing their flights to/from Honolulu for that time.

    Read about it in English:
    https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14600121

    So if the daily cap is still being imposed, that means there is a definitive shift in priority for entry from would-be foreign students and workers to Japanese holiday-makers, especially since to increase the number of flights and/or tickets to/from Hawaii it would mean reducing the number from elsewhere in order to still fall within the daily cap.

    So be my guest to vent your anger.

    Reply
    • Peter
      Peter says:

      If Japan decide not to raise the daily traveller limit (and this further restricts entry to Japan for businesses and those studying in Japan) then absolutely you are right to be angry, and I fear ‘Cruel Japan’ will be the reality and an unwanted label they are stuck with, instead of the ‘Cool Japan’ they wish to promote, themselves to be. 😢

    • Michael
      Michael says:

      Im not worried. Within hours of July Upper House elections they will not only announce full reopening to all tourists but may also give each and every foreign tourist 10,000 JPY voucher to spend as a good will gesture. Tennoheika Banzai!!

    • .
      . says:

      As long as the 7th ‘wave’ isn’t too bad, I have hope that it’ll help change some minds regarding opening further sooner rather than later.

      I really hope they announce some sort of road map in the coming months. Would them just announcing a plan really lead to that many votes lost?

    • Tom Bricker
      Tom Bricker says:

      Are seats on international flights to and from Japan particularly difficult to obtain? At least out of Los Angeles, that doesn’t appear to be the case. (To the contrary, there continue to be deals on flights to Japan, whereas domestic itineraries have exploded in price.)

      I was actually pretty pleased to see that 30,000 students had already entered as of last week. I know that’s a small fraction of the number the Japanese government claims is waiting to enter, but the true number is unknown.

      Don’t get me wrong–I’m not defending this approach. More suggesting that I think processing the backlog has played minimal role in decisions regarding tourists.

      It does seem like the Japanese government is attempting to slowly shift public sentiment. Even Shigeru Omi is softening: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/04/a64274dd863e-no-need-to-stop-social-activities-with-omicron-japan-covid-adviser.html

  4. Peter Horsfield
    Peter Horsfield says:

    With Kishida planning to travel overseas during the golden week, his recent overseas travel to India as well as other foreign leaders planes to travel to Japan in May i.e. Biden (USA), Arden (NZ), this will start to lay the dialog and foundations that it’s safe to travel, and covid can be managed. On top of this news of leaders visits that wil be published far and wide throughought Japan, the news is that Japanese travel agents gearing up to sell tour packages to the Japanese public, and the more Japanese nationals that travel, the more the presure the wider Japanese community will put on the government to also reopen their own borders to international tourism, citing lower covid risks to hospital numbers and the economic benefits to the Japanese economy of doing so.
    All that said, I agree with the commenters that say Japan will remain closed to international tourists until after the election, however I’m confident that soon after the election we will see some major anouncments opening Japan back up and returning to normal vias free travel for tourist by fall/ October 2022. GLTA and safe travels.

    Reply
  5. Joseph
    Joseph says:

    Just curious. I already have tickets to Japan for last week of July 2022. What would happen if they don’t allow tourists entry? Could I land in Tokyo and then take a flight to a neighbor country, say Korea? Since airlines are still flying from US to Tokyo, I would imagine we would only be stopped from entry outside of airport. I am just thinking of backup plan should we fly there and be denied entry. Thanks

    Reply
    • Shinn
      Shinn says:

      You will have to talk to your airline.

      Normally, in such case, they won’t let you board the plane for Japan at all, if the flight is not already cancelled before that. You cannot add another connecting flight yourself, as that’d be a separate booking and you’d have to go through Japan customs first after the first flight, which means you will have to be technically “in Japan” (which you cant be) before getting on another flight to Korea.

    • Ian
      Ian says:

      I’m in the same situation, having tickets to go to Australia in the third week of July with a 48 hour stopover in Tokyo. I secured these for a very cheap price. I’m now in the process of changing these to go to Australia via a different route. We’re still aiming to come back via Japan in August and we’ll wait and see how that goes.

  6. Michael
    Michael says:

    The problem is that the JPGov continues to put heavy emphasis on infection rate and we now know vaccines do not prevent infection and neither does prior infection as we are now seeing increasing cases of reinfection in the West so that leaves us with 2 scenarios: JPGov suddenly grows a pair and decides to reeducate their population to live with the virus OR keep pushing the same narrative and hope for a magic infection-stopping vaccine to be developed. I am betting on the latter until at least Spring 2023.

    Reply
  7. Shinn
    Shinn says:

    I just wanted to say that, a few weeks ago when I searched for direct flights to Tokyo from either Sydney or Melbourne, there was nothing until November. But when I searched today, suddenly there are regular flights starting in Jul, with both JAL and Qantas, direct from major Australian cities to Tokyo. Maybe these airlines got the government’s directions? I do hope..

    Anyway..Been following this blog since last year. Thanks for the great info and updates. No one can predict how things will go during an ongoing pandemic, but educated guesses can at least keep us busy if not always helpful.

    Reply
  8. JohnB
    JohnB says:

    I intend to make reservations for cherry blossom season 2023. With the idea that the chance of going is 50/50. What the Japanese do not realize is that the percentage of travellers willing to visit Japan, is not large. Most Americans have no interest in Japan. So the chances that they will get 40 million visitors is very much unlikely. The whole border closure thing does not make people think they even want visitors. Then we have the people who have made endless reservations and cancelations, eventually these people will give up. Chances are Japan will not get back the visitor volume they had in 2019.

    Reply
  9. AndyO
    AndyO says:

    For those who think the reason for the tourism closure is more political than logistical, then consider this:

    More so than for tourists, Japan is desperate for new foreign workers, new foreign students, and business exchange (as mentioned in the article). The lack of these people being able to enter for 2 years has effected many many sectors including farming, universities, the teaching industry, IT, engineering, finance, and a host of others in Japan Inc.

    Letting these people in is not a political concern and has strong backing from the population because these people pick their fruit, staff retirement homes, teach their children (or grandchildren) English at school, and make business deals to enliven the economy.

    So then why does Japan still have the daily cap on these specific entrants? Why not just let them all in ASAP, and just block out the tourists (if allowing tourists is so politically scary?)

    Seriously, why? Nobody would object to it.

    Perhaps, as I noted, if the cap is eliminated, even if its just for visa-holding new students/workers, then they can not test the increased numbers of arrivals, as well as then manage the quarantine of the inevitable portion who will test positive.

    Furthermore, all those student/workers who are currently let in must go through wads of red tape in being “sponsored”. This starts to explain it more. Prior to Covid, a new student or worker entered Japan and just figured things out. Housing, registration, health insurance… this was often done on their own. But now the sponsor is obliged to be responsible for all this, and if the new foreigner gets sick, its on the sponsor to be responsible for this too.

    This sponsorship application and responsibility is even put on a company like Sony who just wants to have a French client visit for only 2 or 3 days just to do a business deal.

    So as I explained, the tourism issue can not be solved merely through political pressure. In an awkward form of uniquely Japanese hospitality (seriously) they seek to answer “How do we safely handle a sick independent foreign tourist who has no residence, can not speak Japanese, may be located somewhere in the countryside, and (under current law) is not required to have health insurance?”

    Hence, this is why I think only group tours (sponsored by a tour company that is responsible for all contingencies) shall be the first tourists to be let in, maybe by late summer, and that system will continue for several months at least.

    Reply
    • .
      . says:

      This has been discussed before by the Japanese government, albeit the one in 2020. Health care insurance was a prerequisite to being allowed into Japan. Testing was to be done at home and uploaded onto the specific tourist app. If I were paying Japsnese taxes, I would be asking where the hell my tax money went considering all mention of this app disappeared in early 2021. I believe it cost a pretty penny to develop.
      Yes, this requires testing on arrival to be dropped, which is a complete political choice. There is no science to back up that tourism causes serious waves of infection.
      To think that no other countries has not thought about the issue of having tourists contract coronavirus in their country is naive at best. Do you think a country like Italy, for example, that was hit hard early in the pandemic, didn’t have the same thoughts?

      Do you really think the rural elderly population don’t have an issues with international students and business people arriving in their country? I assume your Japanese is better than mine, go read some comments on news websites and social media. It is the younger and working generations that are more accepting of it. There was also the recent Kyodo poll showing around 60ish percentage thought the current border measures (including daily caps) were either acceptable or not strict enough.

      I’m not saying you’re wrong, and I agree that it is more likely that tour groups will be allowed in before regular tourists. This was always the timeline, dating back to 2020 for 2021, but let’s not pretend the measures at the border aren’t political, because the virus doesn’t affect the Japanese population differently to any other.

    • AndyO
      AndyO says:

      First, a health insurance requirement for tourists may have been discussed a couple years ago, but it was never implemented. The fact that there is no movement or further discussion means allowing tourists either isn’t on the agenda or this requirement on non-residents isn’t as easy to require as it seems (their constitution can be weird).

      Yes, the Covid App is an utter waste. Just like the Abe-no-mask. Goes to show how “advanced” things are here. Perhaps they should have set the App up based on FAX.

      And you speak of Covid science being understood? In a place where mask use is still ubiquitous, even at kindergartens? Where hand wash is religiously used at every single building entrance? Where widespread and easily available testing of the public was never adopted? Where now a 4th booster is about to be implemented because the science says all these shots work so well?

      And no, I do fully understand other countries have systems in place for sick tourists. OTHER more logical countries, which don’t have massive communication gaps, or which rely more heavily on foreign tourists, or which had real waves of Covid and now wide-spread natural immunity.

      Japan has its own “way”. Whether or not its logical or understandable is not my choice. I scratch my head all the time in the absurdity of many many non-Covid things. But its their way, and they allow it and they agree, so I just adhere and observe (but it can often be quite interesting sociologically).

      I live in a city of 25,000. There has been a total of 345 confirmed cases here in 2 years. Foreign tourists (used to) like to visit this area, yet I can count on my fingers and toes how many people here can speak a foreign language in more than a sub-par way. If Japan dropped its Covid protocols on tourism that infection number would probably change. People don’t like change, especially when there is no contingency, and I personally have no idea how they would handle it.

      So yes, these things all have a political link, every decision ultimately does, from hiring a competent company to correctly make a App, to not funding development for increased testing, to not properly educating the youth of yester-year in how to actually speak English, to constantly instilling widespread fear and trepidation about an increasingly benign virus, and to not having a plan on what to do.

    • Leonidas
      Leonidas says:

      Off topic but I feel like I need to add.

      I got into Japan mainly through games since childhood and anime, and more recently I got into the seiyuu world.

      And that world, oh boy, is full of stuff that makes you scratch your heads in the absurdity.

      From extremely unfair lottery events based on how much you spent yet not a single japanese complain, passing through magazine prizes that require you to manually send a postal card with a stamp like if we were in the 90’s, ending with radio programs based on a digital antenna where you pay a quite high monthly fee, Japan seems stuck in time and its population sure doesn’t follow the logic from the rest of the world.

    • JJJ
      JJJ says:

      OK, but at the end of all the considerations and explanations the result is always the same: better to stay among Japanese and leave out the foreigners who, at best, cannot understand Japanese society.

    • .
      . says:

      I really do appreciate your sentiment, and agree with the majority of your comments. My response was only because you said in your original comment that it was an issue of logistics, not a political one, then went on to list problems caused by the government, not the virus, whether it be because of incompetence, or because they are scared of the electorate. Most of the world is in agreement, it is the Japanese government that is the outlier.
      My point about the polling showing support for the current border measures, or wanting tougher ones, to me, shows that the government are unable to quickly drop testing on arrival quickly, as election season is coming up and the border measures are popular. Again, you know the science doesn’t back up the need to test on arrival, as catching the virus between testing prior and upon arrival is unlikely to show on a test in the vast majority of cases.
      Your point on not knowing what to do with infected tourists stands, but this is still a political/government issue, because it has been solved in the majority of the world.

      I believe the government is having a meeting on tourism, on Thursday. Perhaps the awful group tours will happen this summer after all, or maybe it’ll just be about the Go-To travel scheme.

  10. Renzo
    Renzo says:

    If you guys need to satisfy your Asia cravings then why not visit Singapore? Its even for Takashimaya or take your pick from South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia etc… All of them much than happy to take your hard earned cash. Dont let stupidity of a backward nation bring you down.

    Reply
    • Kayla
      Kayla says:

      As someone who has travelled the region extensively – the only two places that have some similarities to the parts of Japan I enjoy (Harajuku, Osaka) are Taiwan and South Korea. As a Canadian I still can’t go to either of those (Americans and Europeans can go to South Korea, but not Canadians 🙁 ) I will probably go to Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia this winter. I like them all. But they aren’t remotely similar to most of Japan, they don’t have the kawaii culture or fashion I enjoy. They don’t have the same foods I love. It’s like telling someone who wants to go to San Francisco to just go to Texas because they are both warm.

  11. JJJ
    JJJ says:

    I agree with the level of “underdevelopment” of which you speak that I know well since my family is Japanese and I lived there for a few years. Anyway, I think that this disorganization is also complementary to the atavistic diffidence towards foreigners and to its isolationist attitude.

    Reply
  12. Lofty
    Lofty says:

    I think you underestimate the fear of the older generation and the towns outside the major cities to re opening too soon.My wife is Japanese and some of her friends who also live abroad(we are based in UK) are still getting ‘Please dont come home to visit ,its too soon still’ I believe that autumn this year we will see restrictions start to ease and then open for Spring 2023.From the UK experience ,once things ease ,numbers will explode ,but the effects should not be so severe.I think New Zealand will see an explosion of cases as so few people have had it,The vaccine does not necessarily stop you catching it ,just the severity of effects.Its whether the country decides to live with it.If Japan looks at New Zealand and decides they dont want to take the risk,I have real concerns about repopening.

    Reply
    • .
      . says:

      I think you’ve made some good points and may well be right about your reopening timeline.

      What I would ask is what is more valuable to politicians after July’s election, the opinions of small town and countryside populations, or big business and international reputation?

      As you’re from the UK, I’ll remind you what the polling said before beginning to drop restrictions last Spring. Over 20% wanted a permanent 10pm curfew, and permanent government quarantine at the border. The government didn’t have to worry about an election, so public opinion wasn’t an issue. Yes, there are big differences between the UK and Japan, but my point was to show that public opinion has quickly changed almost everywhere once restrictions are eased and things go (mostly) smoothly. Population immunity in Japan is closer to the UK than it is New Zealand. Andy has pointed out why that is multiple times in other comments below. Controlling omicron and other variants with low effort quasi-state of emergencies are also evidence of that. I do appreciate that doesn’t really matter if the government aren’t willing to admit that to themselves though.

      I don’t know the answer as what matters more to the Japanese government, but I doubt they are really that different from everywhere else. There has been more articles on Japan’s borders restrictions this week than the entirety of the past 3 months. Both Japanese and international. Pressure will continue to increase, bit by bit, the longer the world is open.

      I genuinely think the government contuning to mention monitoring border controls in other countries (it was mentioned again today) is a signal to the public they will need to reciprocate at some point. Why continue to spout this line otherwise? Perhaps someone more familiar with Japanese politics can comment.

  13. Al
    Al says:

    Tom, thanks for your excellent update and analysis. My Japanese wife and I were happy to learn of the apparent “opening” on April 8 but then found out by today, April 10, that it was only in theory. The communication by the Japanese government was very misleading, but the reporting by journalists was also disgracefully inaccurate. Fortunately it won’t prevent our upcoming trip in mid-May, but we were hoping it might mean a relaxation of the quarantine and testing restrictions. Alas, it seems there was really no opening at all. There was apparently no need to rush and book a hotel room in Kyoto as I did to beat a rush of other overseas visitors. I guess that will not happen until at least late summer or fall. Despite that, I would caution other travelers with a “special visa” or Japanese citizenship that the best ryokans in Kyoto are already fully booked in late May, presumably almost entirely by Japanese domestic tourists.

    Reply
  14. Elon Reeve Musk
    Elon Reeve Musk says:

    Let’s see how long this survives censorship. “Truth sounds like hate to those that hate truth”.
    In 2011, after the March earthquake, Japan hotels were refusing people from Fukushima. Why? They feared the people from Fukushima would “infect” their guests with radiation. That was the fear, it wasn’t a fact. For a nation that prides itself on “science” Japan is very timid. COVID merely confirms that observation.
    Fear of COVID is a Cult. I had Delta. Yes, tested positive twice and had all the symptoms. I’m 60. Kanreki! However, despite the hype from the media and those that are not in medicine or with a real degree (e.g. math) it was merely inconvenient, not fatal. For 5 days I had a 101+ F (38.5 C) temperature. Very tired, cough and so on. Stayed home (duh). Stayed in bed (also duh). All alone. But I was prepared. I can completely self-isolate (quarantine) for TWO WEEKS. Zero contact with anyone. I waited it out. I’ve survived NINE pandemics in my lifetime. It takes a little, not much, thought and effort. All of Japan (the world for that matter) could do this. COVID kills those already weak and elderly (but MANY things do). We’ve raised a generation of timid slaves that curl up into a ball ON COMMAND. Or they protest things they don’t understand — again, ON COMMAND. Notice how Japan news only gives “new infections” but never recovery rates. Notice you get deaths but with no reference point. Example: according to Japan’s own data, you are far (100s of times) more likely to die in a car crash than from COVID. YET, people keep driving — because the media hasn’t told them the comparative risk (and they aren’t educated enough or have the initiative to discover these facts on their own). So, remain ignorant, remain vocal, and ensure everyone is as helpless and pathetic as you. For me, it’s a gold mine. My company sends me all over Japan because my co-workers are hiding under their desks. Life won’t wait for you. You’ve wasted two years. How many more will you throw away out of fear? PUSH BACK on fear or it will rule you forever. Do it now!

    Reply
    • Renzo
      Renzo says:

      Absolutely agree. You know how the Japanese refer to 90s as the lost decade? Well that’s nothing compared with how this current decade will be remembered. The fear genie is out of the bottle…

    • Marky Mark & Funky Bunch
      Marky Mark & Funky Bunch says:

      Bravo Elon! I agree 100%. There is certainly a virus fear “cult” mentality here in San Francisco USA as well. Life has risks, everyone’s time is up eventually, time to live life. I hope Japan changes its tune soon. Best wishes to you all.

  15. Michael
    Michael says:

    Folks instead of second guessing Kishida or some other old irrelevant Japanese bureaucrat or reading endless opinions there is one way to force their hands and its quite simple.
    The Japanese take a lot of pride in the status of their passport and how its ranked as one of the highest passports in the world in terms of visa-free travel. Well visa-free travel is supposed to be based on the principle of reciprocity and since these a**holes are making it damn near impossible for the rest of the world we can go after their cherished passport. If you are from one of the G7 countries then write to your government and ask them to suspend visa waiver for Japanese passports. If you’re American write to your congressman and State Department. I guarantee you the Japanese government will start to take it seriously if their visa-free privilege is threatened. This is the only way folks we need to act now! Stop whining and guessing and lets act together to end this nonsense.

    Reply
    • .
      . says:

      Pressure will happen on it’s own once the US allows testing free travel for vaccinated travellers, which will more than likely happen sometime this Spring/Summer. The West will pretty much be full open at that point, as Europe already is. More and more articles are being written about Japan being closed to tourists, and provided the virus situation stays somewhat controlled globally, there will be more.

      It will become untenable for Japan to stay closed for the entirety of the year, provided nothing major changes with the virus situation, and I would rather the world stay open for everyone rather than resorting to petty politics. The Japanese that are currently travelling and the political elite will want the borders open, they know the border measures aren’t doing much ultimately, and the value of them reopening. They’re playing for votes for July’s election. Once it’s over there’s nothing left to play for.

    • Michael
      Michael says:

      We are the victims of pity politics propagated by Japanese government. Sure at some point they will relent but my suggestion was for those who keep watching hours of NHK looking for clues and cant move on and keep booking tickets and hotels and then act surprised when they opening prediction is pushed back again. Im just saying either move on and dont give a flying f**k or act and do something.

    • Michael
      Michael says:

      They need to be forced to either fully isolate or open. There has seen so many goalposts in the past and this July election is the latest one. We foolishly continue to think its the last one and as right after July election its all going to be hunky-doty yet the author of this article himself acknowledges all his predictions have turned out to be wrong. They need to be forced to open otherwise its clear as day light there will be more surges and perhaps different variants come Fall/Winter and again we will be moving the goalpost (4th or 5th shot or new vaccine?!)

    • .
      . says:

      Since Omicron came about, I’m afraid this July election was always the (new) main obstacle. Let’s hope we don’t have another come along. What will be different, if it does, is that the government won’t have an election to worry about, like they have for the past two years, so any political goodwill they lose by opening up will be easier to regain over time before the public next head to the polls.

      I truly believe the Japanese political class know the value in opening up fully. Unfortunately for us, they care more about staying in power. Take away the risk of them losing it, then I think the tide will turn in our favour.

    • AndyO
      AndyO says:

      First, visa-free travel is not necessarily based on reciprocity. I can think of many many countries which allow people from the US, Europe, and Japan to enter without a visa, but these countries have no such reciprocity for the reverse (don’t believe me? If you are in the US, just look south of your border, either to the country physically on it or nearly any other country beyond.)

      Next, this is not fully a political question, it is one of logistics. Until Japan removes its PCR testing on arrival then there will be no full-scale re-opening. Starting today 10,000 people will be able to enter Japan per day, and just like pre-Covid, nearly all come in via Tokyo. But in the past 2 years, at the height of the worst outbreak (which was just 2 months ago) Tokyo managed to test only about 30,000 people in a day. This was the best they could do (and it was 75%+ positive rate, and they tested that much for only 2 weeks). Yes, quite shocking low capacity considering how “advanced” Japan seems and how this is for a city of 13 million.

      Yet in 2019 well more than 100,000 people entered Japan per day, again mostly through Tokyo. Simply put, Japan does not have the capacity to test all who will enter if the border was fully open (even if there are no Chinese), and if they did not increase the testing capacity by now for their own population, it’s stupid to think they will do it for foreign tourists (also, all positive entrants are put into quarantine thats paid by the government, and the capacity and expense are already quite high with just the limited entrants who test positive on arrival, despite having a negative test within 3 days of departing)

      So the only realistic option would be for Covid to become so acceptable in Japan that testing (and quarantine) on arrival is eliminated, and from the general sentiment of the country (I live in Japan) it would be a hard sell regardless of any election.

      Oh yeah, and then there is the question of what to do with a foreign tourist who gets Covid while they are in Japan, and the protocols for quarantine, transport, communication, insurance, clean-up, and general management of them is more of a burden right now than the benefit of allowing them.

    • .
      . says:

      Yes, it is quite clear that minds will have to slowly be changed in the coming months, just as they have been everywhere else in the world. It is less risky for the political and business class to do this when there isn’t an election to worry about.

      Going by the logic in your comment, the border could never open. Out of interest, when would you predict the border opening to tourists?

    • AndyO
      AndyO says:

      My best guess would be a limited re-opening in late summer or Sept at the earliest, but probably only to group tours (fully managed from entry to departure), and/or there may be an opening to unrestricted tourists about that time instead but only to a limited number of entrants (like 40 or 50,000 per day, including Japanese and other residents).

      This assumes no new variants appear, and/or no new outbreaks beyond the one that is currently developing here as I type this (it will probably hit peak in mid-May).

      As far as fully unrestricted tourism like 2019? Maybe, if all goes well, in spring 2023 (unless some awesome new treatment medicine becomes available. If so, then sooner)

    • .
      . says:

      Definitely realistic and possible.

      My thinking is that a reopening to the previous visa free countries from autumn is possible, similar to what New Zealand will be doing. The Chinese not being able to travel halves the amount of usual tourists alone, so this would further control numbers. I’m not sure how easy to would be to have daily caps on tourists. Perhaps with an online tourist visa system it’s possible. Let’s not forget that Japan had plans to open to tourists using the app (where did that go, by the way?) back in 2020 for summer 2021, before Alpha put that to rest. I appreciate that was under a different PM though.

      I think it’s dependent on whether they slowly get rid of testing on arrival for business and student travellers this summer. Whether that’s likely, I don’t know, but there have been more and more articles on Japanese business related sites pushing for it.

    • JJJ
      JJJ says:

      I don’t get where your comment is going with this. Do you mean that Japan is so underdeveloped compared to other industrialized nations that it cannot handle the process of reopening its borders? Why should Japan have all these difficulties that other G7 countries don’t have? I think it is not a logistic issue but only merely a precise cultural choice of xenophobic isolationism.

    • AndyO
      AndyO says:

      “Do you mean that Japan is so underdeveloped compared to other industrialized nations that it cannot handle the process of reopening its borders?”

      -Yes, hence why the borders are currently not fully open and won’t be anytime soon.

      “Why should Japan have all these difficulties that other G7 countries don’t have?”

      -Because the older generation who is in charge have no idea of reality and are mostly incompetent, from nat’l government, to local government, to business, to public education. Ask anyone who ever lived here for at least a few years, they’ll fully agree.

      Here’s an example: for the first 8 months of Covid, the daily positive case total for the whole country was manually counted by having all testing centers individually print out a documented report for each and every new positive case and then FAX each report one by one to the national health department. It was madness but that was just “the way” and the underlings who had to do it all could not object. Finally on the 9th month of the pandemic (that was Sept 2020) they switched to e-mail.

      In realizing how antiquated this supposedly “advanced” country was due to Covid and a whole slew of other idiotic mis-steps, the government established the new Digitalization Agency a full year later in Sept 2021 in order to (among other high-tech thingys) convert to start using e-mail for government work instead of FAX. The facade of Japan being “ultra modern” is just a left-over false belief from decades past (when they actually once were at the time). Just like the mis-conception of it still being expensive.

  16. .
    . says:

    To me, the line that ” the government will make a judgment after examining the COVID-19 infection situation and border control steps taken by other nations.” Isn’t a throwaway, unimportant line. They are will be well aware of what other countries border measures are. It has been repeating it a lot over the past couple of months. It seems like this is a political method of slowing grooming the public to accept that they will need to reciprocate entry of tourists at some point in the future. Quite clearly, it will be after the elections, but it could come soon after.

    Reply
    • Koru
      Koru says:

      I am thinking exactly the same. It’s very japanese so let’s see. My guess is June, but announcement will be in May.

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