Is Japan Open to Tourists?
Is Japan open for international individual travelers? Are borders open as normal in 2024? What are testing, face mask, and vaccine requirements for visitors? These are questions among those planning trips to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and this covers the answers.
The good news is that we now have an answer to questions we’ve been asking for nearly two years! First, after reopening to guided tour groups, Japan reopened to individual tourists on October 11, 2022. In the year-plus since, additional changes have occurred to the extent that it’s basically business as usual for visiting Japan in 2024.
We’ve already returned to Japan, spending about a month in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and elsewhere. In various updates here, we’ve been sharing our experiences and what it’s like as a foreign visitor, what has changed, crowd conditions, expenses of visiting Japan with the weaker yen, and much more. The big one for most of you is likely going to be Japan Face Mask Rules v. Reality in 2024.
Those two posts cover essentially everything you need to know about visiting Japan as of 2024. The short version is that it is possible to enter, regardless of whether you’re vaccinated or unvaccinated, albeit with a testing requirement for the latter. There are no quarantine requirements, and travel is visa-free for the vast majority of people reading this.
Please subscribe to our FREE email newsletter and stay tuned if you are curious about how things are on-the-ground for tourists in Japan post-reopening.
In terms of the latest news, the current vaccine and testing policies ended on May 8, 2023. This is because Japan has formally decided to downgrade the legal status of the novel coronavirus on May 8, 2023 to the same category as common infectious diseases, such as seasonal influenza, thereby easing COVID-19 prevention rules.
This is a major policy shift and will relax–if not eliminate entirely–Japan’s intensive COVID-19 countermeasures, including limiting the movements of infected people and their close contacts. Japan’s reclassification of COVID-19 to Class 5 came after a panel of experts under the health ministry agreed on the plan earlier in the day.
The downgrade would pave the way for a normalization of social and economic activities in Japan, and should mean that non-residents are able to enter the country without PCR tests or additional paperwork. Essentially, there will be no (legal) basis for the current border protocol effective May 8, 2023. Of course, things could change between now and then, but it’s likely the border will revert to late 2019 status as of that date.
We typically spend a couple of months in Japan each year, and are ecstatic to be returning after nearly 3 years away. We are eager to revisit our favorite places, see friends in Japan for the first time in over two years, and continue creating this site’s wealth of free planning resources. We’re excited about this great (but overdue) news, but also go in knowing that things will be different, in ways both good and bad.
For these two-plus years, we’ve been closely monitoring the situation in Japan, watching several hours of NHK each day and reading multiple Japanese news sources. All of this in the hope for some clarity as to when the country will fully reopen and Japan will begin allowing international tourists to enter once again.
What follows is based on that research and fixation with the on-the-ground situation in Japan. We’re preserving this for posterity, but everything that follows is now (thankfully!) obsolete information.
Japan is now allowing foreign nationals to enter Japan for purposes other than tourism so long as they have a sponsor in the country. This includes business travelers on short stays, students in study abroad programs, participants in technical internships, both guided & unguided tour groups, spouses or children (and other relatives) of a Japanese national/permanent resident, others with special exceptional circumstances, and those who would provide a “public benefit” to Japan.
With that in mind, let’s cover how we got here, why Japan maintains the strictest among the Group of Seven developed nations, and what could cause that to change…
Again and again, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said that Japan “will continue to consider how the measures should be by taking into account the infection situations at home and abroad, border control measures taken by other nations, and progress in the rollout of vaccine boosters.”
Kishida has also acknowledged that Japan’s border control measures are the strictest among Group of Seven nations, and expressed a desire/need to bring Japan in line with its counterparts. “This is the first step in our gradual easing of the [border] restrictions,” Kishida has said.
As for why Japan’s border is still closed over a year after most democracies reopened, that can largely be explained by the country’s apprehensiveness of outsiders.
For better or worse, Japan is an insular and culturally conservative country–a characteristic that is often valued by visitors. Not so much in the last couple of years, as this has been reflected in policy-making. Japan has vilified and scapegoated foreigners and had an overly aggressive approach to its borders.
Due to this and other policies, Japan has lagged behind economically, seeing slower recovery than the United States and other counterparts that have more aggressively reopened. Economic benefits of international tourists is one big reason why Japan is expected to reopen its border.
Boosting tourism was core to the late former Prime Minister Abe’s economic revitalization, and both subsequent prime ministers have indicated their intentions to maintain continuity with those plans. However, the number of foreign visitors to Japan dropped to 245,900 last year, the lowest since 1964, as the country enforced tighter border controls. Compared with the pre-pandemic level in 2019, it dropped 99.2 percent. That’s the sharpest fall on record according to the Japan Tourism Agency.
Economists fear a “double dip” recession in Japan due to the prolonged closures and restrictions. Decreased tourism plus falling exports, an increased consumption tax, reduced consumer spending, weak yen, and growing national debt. Japan’s economy has serious issues and inbound tourism was previously a bright spot.
In other words, reopening to international visitors will be important to the health of Japan’s consumption-driven economy at some point in the not too distant future. This becomes increasingly true as the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan continuing to pursue its loose monetary policy while the United States Federal Reserve, European, and other central banks raise interest rates. Quite simply, Japan is inflicting pain on itself by remaining closed.
There are also signs that stringent travel measures, including the border closure, are having a greater impact on Japan’s economy than previously believed. This is despite Japan’s “Go to Travel” campaign that subsidized domestic travel, which was offered at various times during the last two years.
According to data from the Japan Tourism Agency, stays at hotels and other accommodation facilities hit another record low in Japan last year–breaking the previous record set in 2020. The total of guests at hotels and inns was 315.75 million, down 4.8% from 2020 and 47% from 2019. (This number includes hotels used as government quarantine facilities, not just leisure stays.)
The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party recognizes these problems and realizes it needs to rebuild Japan’s economy. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that his top priority was formulating new economic measures and implementing these goals. The government will also take measures to stimulate and jump-start the economy.
Despite the aforementioned numbers, Japan is maintaining its goal of attracting 60 million foreign visitors by 2030. Additionally, the Japan National Tourism Organization has set 2024 as its goal for recovering to 2019 international travel levels. Both of these statements are reassuring given the current border closures, and indicate that Japan will unwind its travel ban in months, not years.
Against that economic backdrop, let’s take a look at the latest changes to Japan’s reopening plans…
We have more good news! Multiple media outlets, including NHK, Kyodo, Nikkei, and Fuji TV are all reporting that Japan’s government is planning to further relax restrictions and border measures with an eye to implementing the revisions by the start of October.
The specifics are not consistent among outlets, so let’s start with where they’re in agreeance.
First, there is consensus that the daily arrival cap, which is currently set at 50,000, will be eliminated entirely.
This is a necessary prerequisite for further reopening and the resumption of more inbound international flights, but this alone was not an obstacle dissuading most international visitors. While the daily number of arrivals was higher pre-closure, we assumed that 50,000 is the level at which this cap becomes immaterial with China still sidelined. Regardless, it’s good to have this removed as it eliminates an element of uncertainty and could have been an issue during peak travel times for the Japanese.
Another possibility is that Japan will allow individual foreign tourists to enter the country and exempt them from visas if they have been vaccinated three times or submit a pre-arrival test result.
This is where there is disagreement among the major outlets. Kyodo, Nikkei, and NHK are reporting that this is to be determined, with government officials still deciding whether to proceed with this plan or start with lifting the daily arrival cap. By contrast, Fuji TV is treating this as a done deal, using less ambiguous language.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly plans to make a decision as early as the end of this week, according to the news outlets’ sources.
These “leaks” came after Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara spoke on Fuji TV over the weekend and stated that Japan will consider easing all three restrictions–the daily arrival cap, ban on individual tourists, and visa requirements. “We will review all three restrictions together. We have to carry it out in the not-so-distant future,” he said.
“Japan has seasonal attractions in fall and winter. We know there are a lot of people overseas who want to come to Japan,” Kihara added. “Amid the weakening yen, inbound travelers will have greatest economic effect…There are many foreign visitors who want to come visit Japan.” Kihara added that eliminating the arrival cap alone was not enough.
Kihara isn’t the only one who has been vocal about fully reopening to tourists recently. During the Bloomberg New Voices panel, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said she would open the country’s doors “tomorrow” if it were her decision. “Tourism is a big industry in Tokyo, as well as in all Japan, so this is the time to greet more foreign tourists by using this advantage of the depreciation of the yen,” she said.
Koike said that Japan’s borders would fully reopen soon. “The national border is under the management of central government,” Koike said. “As governor of Tokyo, that would be tomorrow.”
The yen has fallen to a 24-year low of ¥144 to the dollar, likely contributing to the sense of urgency in the aforementioned interviews.
Japan eased its border restrictions last week, raising the daily arrival cap from 20,000 to 50,000 and dropping the requirement for pre-arrival PCR testing for vaccinated travelers.
Japan also began allowing unguided tours, meaning ones not accompanied by tour conductors. This is specifically for “unguided tour groups” or “non-escorted visitors on package tours” and not individual tourists.
In Unguided Tours in Japan – Reopening Phase Rules, we cover what this entails and the recently-released guidelines and FAQ for these tours. Prior to those guidelines being released, we speculated on how this would work given basic logic and past precedent with prior groups who had been allowed to enter Japan. We were wrong–the unguided tours offered two steps forward but one step backwards.
We mention this in part to own past mistakes, but also as a cautionary tale. While it certainly sounds like the end is near for the Japan travel ban, it’s premature to have a high degree of confidence.
Kishida’s government has been trying to take advantage of the weak yen and accelerate growth by attracting more foreign visitors. It thus stands to reason that opening to individual tourists necessarily needs to occur–that raising the entry cap will do nothing in furtherance of their stated goal. However, as we have seen time and time again, the patently obvious conclusion often is not the outcome reached by Japan.
Moreover, how this played out with Japan’s last announcement is also instructive.
On August 23, specifics of the September relaxation measures were leaked to the same media outlets. At that time, it was unclear whether unguided tourists would be allowed to enter. On August 31, Kishida made an official announcement encompassing all of the rumored changes, including unguided tourists. (It took a few more days for the guidelines to be released, and the clarifying FAQ is still being updated.)
While presenting the above as a cautionary tale against optimism or over reliance on logic when assessing Japan’s decisions, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. (I’m sorry, I can’t help myself. Like a moth to a flame.)
First, there’s already the realization that unguided tours–like guided tours before them–will not move the needle on inbound tourism in any meaningful way. It’s another symbolic measure, and coming at a time when an increasing number of international visitors have already moved on to other destinations and pent-up demand has begun fizzling out. The number of people anxiously awaiting Japan’s reopening is shrinking, not growing.
Second, there’s awareness within the Kishida administration that the window of opportunity to reopen the border is closing. This is something we’ve pointed out in our best and worst case scenarios in prior updates, but there’s only a limited amount of time between waves.
Over two years into this, the seasonality of COVID transmission is well-established. Cases are currently in freefall and will continue decreasing next month before bottoming out sometime between late October and early November. There will be a winter resurgence. It could start as soon as late November, but is more likely in December.
Reopening to individual tourists in October presents minimal (political) risk and maximum (economic) upside. Public opinion polls show that most voters have already moved on from COVID to assorted scandals; the minority who still care will see no immediate increase in cases correlating with the border reopening.
Frankly, the miscalculation here by the Kishida administration is thinking that this will have an immediate impact on inbound travel. Those reading regular updates on Japan’s reopening are not representative of international travelers at large. Most people need months of time between booking and traveling; very few plan and take last-minute trips–especially international ones.
Obviously, the easing has to occur at some point and this lag will always play out, but the notion that this moves the needle for fall is misguided. Autumn is already a lost cause. At best, this helps with winter. More likely, the impact won’t be fully felt until next year’s cherry blossom season.
One wildcard is the downgrade of COVID’s legal status. Several recent updates have centered around Japan’s internal debate over whether to strip COVID-19 of its special status and downgrade it to the same level as the flu in Japan’s infectious disease categories.
It’s been our perspective that this was a necessary prerequisite to welcoming individual tourists as there would no longer be a need for a responsible receiving party to monitor travelers and act as a liaison for infected individuals. Given that none of the recent reports have even mentioned COVID’s status in regard to reopening, it’s possible our perspective was wrong. Or, that this barrier does still exist and Japan will have to create a “solution” for it (travel insurance?) for individual tourists. Either way, that’s something to continue keeping in mind.
Also as previously mentioned, recent poll data also shows the public is now far less concerned with COVID than the economy, Unification Church scandal, Abe’s state funeral, and other issues. It’s entirely possible that Kishida sees this polling and his sagging approval numbers and realizes that it’s time to move forward. That there’s more upside than downside risk in reopening and encouraging more economic activity.
As we’ve stressed repeatedly, Japan’s populace has been among the most cautious in the world with regard to COVID-19. Human behavior and sentiment don’t change overnight, even if it’s economically advantageous and objectively safer to do so. Statements by politicians and medical advisors, gradual border relaxation measures, and other changes could be interpreted as Japan laying the groundwork for a resumption of normalcy and the country’s eventual reopening. It now appears that the time is here–or coming very soon.
With all of this said, I’ll present my revised best, worst, and base-case scenarios for Japan’s reopening to individual tourists…
Let’s start with the best-case scenario. This assumes that Japan downgrades COVID-19 from its special status to Category 5 literally any day now or that this is not a necessary prerequisite to an individual tourist reopening. (With the possible workaround of travel insurance or some other awkward “fix.”)
Critically, this would eliminate the legal requirement of a responsible receiving party for visitors to Japan. In such a scenario, the borders could almost immediately return to their normal pre-closure status in early October. With this, the visa exemption would be reinstated, making that a non-issue. The arrivals cap would also be eliminated in this scenario.
Then there’s the middle ground or base case. This is now the same as the best-case scenario. In short, the early October reopening is not just our most optimistic view–it’s now what we expect to happen.
To differentiate the two, I’ll also allow for a middle ground possibility of a bifurcated decision with the individual tourist reopening a few weeks after the entry cap elimination. Let’s say that happens in early November.
This is would allow a bit of wiggle room for Japan’s slow and belabored decision-making process that involves a lot of “careful consideration” and “evaluating the situation.” If anything has been well-established during the last two-plus years, it’s that inaction is Japan’s baseline, and anything that does happen occurs gradually and in stages.
Finally, the worst-case scenario is that Japan instead opts to revive its “Go to Travel” campaign just in time for fall colors season, and uses that to buoy the tourism sector through December. It’s possible the country views this as sufficient for tourism businesses to stave off bankruptcy or other financial hardship for another few months.
If/when there’s another winter resurgence in cases, the reopening can would effectively be kicked down the road for a few more months. That would mean individual tourists would not be welcomed back to Japan until sometime in the first half of 2023. I’m inclined to say Spring 2023, but it’s easy to envision a worst-case that isn’t until summer.
Our view is that the worst-case scenario is now highly unlikely. Japan relaxed its border measures earlier in September while still being #1 in the world for new cases. This indicates that Japan is finally ready to move forward and sets the precedent for future changes during waves. Who knows–it still may take until early 2023 to fully downgrade the legal status of COVID. But whatever winter wave occurs (and one will happen), that’s unlikely to be an obstacle to reopening progress, as was the case last year.
With all of that in mind, we remain cautiously optimistic that individual tourists will be allowed to enter Japan sooner rather than later. The political and economic appetite for fully relaxation now clearly exists, and there’s a vocal chorus of politicians in Japan–including those who were previously in favor of closed borders–championing reopening. It’s now the popular position being advanced publicly by politicians, not just being advocated by Keidanren or Japan’s business lobby.
Japan fully reopening in full is all but inevitable at this point. It will happen soon. The end is near.
It’s thus our view that Japan reopening in some capacity to individual tourists in October is a very realistic scenario. As improbable as it might’ve seemed even a week ago, Japan welcoming back international visitors who are not part of tours (guided or unguided) sometime before November is likely. It’s pretty clear the government is focused on moving forward. As frustrating as this whole process has been, Japan is not still (completely) stuck in March 2020.
As always, Japan is cautious and conservative, with a slow and belabored decision-making process that often embodies “analysis paralysis” and usually defies logic. That’s a wild card that could further extend any timeline. However, Japan is now joining the rest of the world as people are ready to move on with life.
We’ll keep watching the news and keep you posted if/when there are further developments about Japan reopening and allowing entry to travelers from the United States, Canada, Europe, and beyond. Again, if you’d like to be notified as soon as more details are released or rumored, subscribe to our free email newsletter for ongoing updates and alerts:
If you’re planning a visit to Japan, our recommendation at this point is to target sometime in November at the earliest. In our view, koyo (autumn leaves) season is a good bet, and that takes place from mid-November through December. That’s simply a good time to visit Japan and, hopefully, the country will be open to individual tourists by then.
Speaking of which, check out our Japan Fall Colors Forecast & Autumn Foliage Viewing Guide to get started on planning your trip to visit Japan’s popular fall foliage cities, including Kyoto, Tokyo, Mount Fuji, Miyajima, Hiroshima, Himeji, and Nara. That also offers tips for avoiding crowds and strategy for visiting the best temples, shrines, and evening illuminations.
If you’re planning a trip to the Japan, check out our other posts about Japan for ideas on other things to do! We also recommend consulting our Ultimate Guide to Kyoto and Ultimate Guide to Tokyo to plan.
Your Thoughts
Would you consider visiting Japan later this year, or is international travel out of the question for you anytime soon? How do you view the news about guided tours? Think those will stick around for several months, or are simply theater to shift public opinion? Think the need to adapt and live with the endemic virus will outweigh fear when it comes to Japan’s reopening plans? Any thoughts or tips of your own to add? If you’re planning your trip to Japan, what do you think about these itineraries? Any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
“Conveniently” the press is reporting the “record cases” of Osaka instead of Tokyo. I’d say it’s telling…
Perhaps its because Tokyo didn’t report a record in cases today.
Yesterday they were quick to point out that the cases were lower than expected because people didn’t test as much on Monday due to the long weekend. Today, they’ve completely forgotten that fact while reporting on the more significant spike countrywide. How convenient.
JAL to add a Narita-Los Angeles route in August, as well as some others scheduled for September.
https://www.jwing.net/news/54441
Perhaps this is what Japan is concerned about:
“Australians urged to work from home as winter Omicron wave swamps hospitals”
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/australians-urged-to-work-from-home-as-winter-omicron-wave-swamps-hospitals
If Japan is concerned about the winter in the middle of the summer, then we all might as well agree they will indeed never reopen.
No doubt it is, but unlike Australia, Japan has never been zero covid. Not really a realistic comparison for multiple reasons, with population immunity via infection being the main one.
If that’s the case then they need to justify letting in their own citizens that come back from vacations from these countries and quarantine them accordingly. The infections they are reporting on now are home-grown or imported by their own citizens. Covid doesn’t check the passport on arrival.
I fully agree they aren’t the same, I was just trying to point out that a heavy outbreak of Omicron is not as inconsequential as most would like to believe. (though hospitals overall in Japan have a low percentage of covid patients, in Okinawa they are currently nearing 70%)
As far as population immunity achieved through infection, I also agree that Australia is rather different. As it stands, Australia has a confirmed overall case rate of about 34 per 100 people. In Japan its about 8 per 100. Yes, many Japanese cases have probably not been identified due to limited testing (though, it is also likely many Aussie cases have slipped through the testing as well), but even assuming its double than reality, then it is indeed still quite a difference.
Axel, did you mean Japan, or Australia? Because that could apply to both.
Comparisons between recorded case rates is pointless because of Japan’s awful testing.
Not sure if it was on here, but someone posted an article regarding estimates from a Japanese scientist, and it was around 40-60%, unfortunately I can’t remember off the top of my head.
Regardless, we’ll have to wait and see, but I would bet heavily on Japan avoiding a similar situation without the need to bring in restrictions (regardless if they do or not).
I like how Andy manages to distort what people say.
First, “.” is saying about the population immunity in Japan, not Australia. Japan has a much higher population immunity, yet Andy tries bringing numbers stating the opposite. Australia was zero covid for a long time so many of its population are just now coming in contact with the virus.
Second, well I think it’s pretty obvious what Axel is referring to here.
Sorry Leo, please re-read “.”s comment. I distorted nothing. He made a comparison between the two countries without any data, so I just provided the stats. Please explain with available data how Japan has a higher population immunity than Australia. I would be very open to see it.
As far as Australians only now coming into contact with the virus, I agree, Omicron is affecting them way way more than anything previous. But in this, are you suggesting that it is a vastly different situation in Japan?
As of January 1st this year, about 0.5% of Australians had ever caught Covid. It’s now 34%. On Jan 1, about 1.2% of Japanese had ever caught Covid. It’s now 8%.
(so this data says that Japan would have a population immunity via infection of 8% compared to Australia’s 34%. I will fully agree that the Japanese numbers are probably considerably off, but there is no data other than random sampling that is extrapolated with assumptions which says otherwise.)
And before anyone starts comparing vaccination or booster rates, the two countries are practically the same (actually, Australia is higher with boosters)
AndyO, you need to look at South Africa, not Australia, whose Zero Covid strategy caused much more problems than Omicron (among others, a resurgence in RSV infections in children).
In South Africa the wave caused minimal problems, and the “oscillations” point to a transition to the a some sort of endemic phase.
The outlet news (can we get a primary source instead of something like this?) does not report something that became important with Omicron: incidental admissions (which in the UK are around 30% of the total admissions).
“As of January 1st this year, about 0.5% of Australians had ever caught Covid. It’s now 34%. On Jan 1, about 1.2% of Japanese had ever caught Covid. It’s now 8%. ”
Please, do not post data which has no meaning. Without a serious seroprevalence investigation, which only UK managed to do, it’s impossible to know.
All I see is a strong cognitive bias.
Right now, if there’s a problem with hospitals, it’s not foreigners or citizens, it’s the government problem.
zazza, I have repeatedly said that the data in Japan is flawed. I’m happy you agree. So maybe you will also stop staying that the same flawed data on which your glorious Indicator 3 is based suggests that “It’s slowing down, and a pretty fast rate.”
But what can not be skewed through the limited testing is the death rate. This could be a better metric to judge overall infection immunity within the population. In Japan its about 2.5 total deaths per 10,000. In Australia its about 4.1. South Africa is 16. In the UK its 26. And the US is 30.
Today’s numbers are looking to explode two-fold or more all across Japan… except in Tokyo (which is from where you get the data for Indicator 3). Tokyo is maxxed out with its testing capacity, so of course it will look like its slowing (its just now being reported that Tokyo is just a bit higher than last week’s high). That is one of the logistical issues I always noted, and now even NHK confirms it:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20220720/k10013727581000.html
(this article also says that hospitals are rapidly filling, particularly pediatrics)
Andy, if you admit that Japan’s testing has been awful for the entire pandemic, why do you use it when it suits your argument? As Zazza says, Without seroprevalence investigation, it is redundant for reasons you already know.
Actually, Osaka is expected to report higher numbers today than Tokyo. This is because Osaka has a higher testing capacity, even though it has one-fifth the population.
I use the testing data because, as flawed as it is, it isn’t completely worthless. It does indicate when waves occur, and what factors may be in play to cause/reduce numbers.
It is also the only data metric available, so without it, its only complete speculation on the covid situation (as opposed to just partial speculation). The data should not be completely ignored, nor should it be measured with grains of accuracy. It is a general indicator, so minor sways day-to-day (like Indicator 3) say very little.
Perhaps more importantly, even though you and I see issues with the data, the larger population of Japan probably doesn’t, including the policy-makers. They will be using this data to determine many things, including border control. So no discussion that seeks to determine when Japan will re-open should ignore the available data (as flawed as it is) which will be a main factor in this determination by those in control.
But as noted, deaths can be a better indicator of overall spread. (yes, there can be comparative issues here too, especially with places that had way more deaths pre-Omicron like the US and EU, but with a place like Australia, it could be comparable)
Then I would ask how Covid deaths in both Japan and Australia are recorded, because there are major variations from country to country. I ask out of genuine interest because I’ve found it hard to actually find a protocol for Japan.
But yes, you’re right about the data in Japan mattering for a border reopening, but as you know, policy makers, and even a lot of Japanese scientists, don’t really seem to be taking anything outside of Japan into consideration. So should we also avoid making comparisons?
Yes, I completely agree not to make comparisons with other countries. I wish others would too.
But you (and others, including concepts cited in within the article update) also need to stop the speculation of what Japan’s natural immunity level actually is and what the “real” infection numbers may actually be. And then stop extrapolating from that what the policy should be.
Time and again the comments shift into “what Japan SHOULD do based on this and that expert analysis and what other countries are doing”. That’s all pointless and ultimately worthless.
People ought to be staying within the focus of “this is most-likely what Japan WILL do based on they way THEY see things.”
(hence the article title “when will Japan reopen” instead of “when should Japan reopen”)
AndyO, I already said the curve is slowing down. This has nothing to do with testing, but with simple biology and it’s consistent with what’s happening in the rest of the world.
Limited testing has nothing to do with this. How many times do I have to repeat it? Again, nothing points to the government just looking at “cases”.
“So no discussion that seeks to determine when Japan will re-open should ignore the available data (as flawed as it is) which will be a main factor in this determination by those in control.”
Omi’s comments point to an analysis to data that is not what the outlets are reporting.
The low excess death in Japan cannot be used as a proof that the measures were working, as it’s likely linked to other factors, which are not known.
zazza, that “curve” is based the number of reported infections, correct? The number of reported infections is based on the number of positive tests. Limited tests = limited positive cases = limited curve. This is not complex bio-mechanics.
Or are you just speculating? How else would this curve be determined in Japan? A crystal ball?
Andy, I assume you’re counting yourself in those who should stop the speculation and comparisons? Look at your comments in this thread. You’re excusing others of something you’re guilty of yourself. Personally, I say speculate away, but at least don’t be a hypocrite about it. I think it’s pretty useful to compare BA5 waves in other countries, personally, but yes, ultimately it is worthless, if you choose to look at it that way.
Be fair. I’ve never speculated that Japan has an immunity rate at all comparable to most other developed countries, which has been done routinely on here.
If anything, I’ve specifically stated the opposite, in that despite the inaccurate testing data, Japan still lags considerably behind most countries as far as natural, infection-based immunity. And usually I get attacked for saying it. But I’ve repeatedly tried to note the death rate instead, and then get castigated for doing that too.
Sure, I’ve speculated on many things (most importantly, on when Japan may indeed re-open) but I do not try to claim that Japan has multiple times more actual cases than reported, which would be what is necessary for Japan to be in the same league as most other developed countries.
So referring to me as a hypocrite on that is unjust.
I don’t actually completely disagree with you on that (although I do think prior infection is much higher in the major cities than reported), as I don’t with most things. It was said more in reference to the comparisons and conclusions we’ve all been making, but apologies if I came off a bit rude. I don’t mean to be!
I’ve been reading a lot in relation to this and I’d like to be optimistic about my chances of getting over there by the 1st of October (if no news or plan a month prior it’s off to South Korea instead).
I’ve also heard a comment – and I hate that I can’t find the source anymore – about the EU deadline of visa-free reciprocation which is the 10th of August. If that’s true then I think there will be more push back from Japanese citizens to open the borders as it’d be directly impacting them otherwise.
The only other thing that I can see which may influence Japan’s policy making is the G7 Summit due to be held on the 19-21st of May 2023. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/19/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-2023-g7-hiroshima-may/
I’m assuming they wouldn’t want to lose face with all the world leaders trying to explain why their citizens are free to travel as tourists whereas other citizens are barred for “covid” reasons.
Love Japan but their policy making is really grinding my gears.
I am doing the exact same. I have a trip plannend for the First of october. However, if gov does not give any exit strategy by mid august, i will go to korea instead 😀 I am little worried by Korea’s triple testing requirements through.
4/19/22: This latest update is extensive and most appreciated. Japan remains #1 on our list of countries to visit. It is very helpful to understand the more conservative nature of Japan and reluctance to re-open to individual tourists too soon, particularly with the ongoing “spikes” in cases coupled with changing COVID variants. To that end, we are planning to visit in March-April of 2023, if Japan is then open. As long as air & hotel reservations remain forgiving and flexible, there is little, risk other that further delays We therefore, will continue to book and plan our 14-day first time immersion/adventure to Japan.
I have tickets for November 10-18th 2022.. my 30th birthday.. i have my entire trip planned and I’m getting so anxious and worried. I was a covid nurse and going to Japan really helped me get through it. (Japan has always been my travel dream). I check back here so frequently to see if y’all will update good news. I so hope it opens in September.. it would mean everything to me and i know so many!
I firmly believe Japan will downgrade Covid to level 5 next month.
As zazza keeps saying, by early next month the wave will be subside and cases will go down. There’s no ifs to that, and Japan is no different, that’s how long Omicron wave lasts in every country.
After that, and after Omi’s speech, the government will simply have no excuse anymore to not reduce covid risk.
Soon after that, international tourism will return by the end of August.
I mean, how will they keep restrictions in place for a disease they now classify same level as flu? Has flu ever been responsible for banning travel? Has flu ever been responsible for having to stay silent in concerts? And so on.
Every restriction inside and at the borders would have to fall with the reclassification.
That’s why they are silent about it for now, because they know the importance and the impacts of this change.
Downgrade? Meaning individual travel?!
The border restrictions are in place to prevent the spread of infection (as it says on MOFA site) of a level 2, and thus potentially risky disease, which spread should be prevented.
Theorically, when the government accepts reducing it to the same level as flu, it would make the argument invalid, because diseases like the normal seasonal flu never reached a level of attention where spread should be prevented.
Thus, at least for me, despite the analysis-paralysis, careful consideration and everything Japan got very known for in the last 2 years, there would be no careful consideration needed anymore, which would lead to a normalcy both inside the country and the borders. They simply wouldn’t be able to come up with any logical reason to keep the borders shut.
The only thing that can still happen that would delay the reopening is if they start the national campaign while insisting on Covid class 2. That would make absolutely no sense and would go against what Omi said.
My daughter is in the Navy . Stationed in Yokosuka.
Trying to get info from Seattle Japanese consulate as to whether or not she is considered a long term resident.
In which ,I might be granted a travel visa. This would be fir travel this mid November.
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
Hi Rita. I was stationed at Yokosuka for six months and returned in March 2022. My wife tried the consulate and embassy to see if she could come over for Christmas. No joy at either place. You may have better luck.
Just updated the analysis. (Mentioning that for those who scroll past on their way to the comments. Not that I mind–having a thoughtful comments section here is fantastic.)
Reasonable minds may differ, but what really sticks out to me more than anything else is Shigeru Omi’s comments about downgrading COVID. Both that he would say this (he’s been ‘easing’ the public into changes recently prior to Japan making official announcements) and the timing during the seventh wave.
Maybe I’m just overly-inclined towards optimism, but that’s a huge development. Only took a few months after Keidanren’s proposal, but still nice to hear.
Now, what that means for the border reopening obviously remains open to interpretation…
As I said Tom, the cynic in me thinks they’re just trying to find an exit strategy that would make them look good.
I think this does that–declare the policies a success at reducing COVID-19 to a severity/negative outcome level on par with the seasonal flu.
Perhaps more importantly, that gives the public a relevant benchmark or frame of reference to assess ongoing mitigation efforts. Everyone knows what life with the flu was like, and what precautions they did or did not take. That’s probably the easiest way to encourage going back to normal, and in turn, economically-productive behavior (which matters more now than COVID, anyway).
JATA has started a campaign asked to remove the border restrictions as soon as possible.
https://www.jwing.net/news/54403
As for the SK issue, according to some Korean sources, the timing couldn’t be decided “due to cases” (pointless discussion).
Do you guys realize how pitifully obsessive y’all sound? Following every trickle of lame japanese politics and COVID data for what? What’s so important? Who cares seriously
Youd care too if you were waiting 2 years to travel and were waiting to find out if you have to cancel another 5k vacation
I have friends I would like to see, and I’m in the position where I can afford to travel and they can’t as easily. I’d also like to return to a country I hold a great deal of affection for.
Why are you still checking the comments, if you don’t care at all?
I think most people are aware that is the best privileged problem that one could have. The happiest moments I experienced in Japan, and want to experience those again, is that simple.
Wow, way to judge people, even though you’re too checking the comments. You don’t know everyone’s situation so you shouldn’t criticize like that.
I lived in Japan for a bit over a year, just before covid. I met someone, fell in love, lived together and dated for 3 years. He was japanese and the plan was for him to come visit a couple of times in 2020 and 2021 to get to know my country, me visiting him often as well, until we both had a clearer vision where to live.
Long story short, due to COVID his job became remote, barely seeing anyone everyday. He lives alone and barely talks to his family. He changed his job midway because of those conditions and because pandemic also affected the company’s profit. The fact that we couldn’t plan anything due to him not being able to take vacations and me not being able to enter Japan took a toll on both: I’m visiting a psychologist weekly for over a year now and he, being alone all the time in top of that, fell into depression, without consulting a professional because that’s not much of a thing in Japan.
I spent almost two years watching him fall apart, powerless. It became too much and we broke up. It seemed the only way to remove that stress from both of our lives. I still have the ticket I bought two years ago to see him, for September this year now.
So for me going to Japan means my last chance to meet with someone very precious to me, who’s going through a tough time, getting some things back that I left in the apartment we shared together, and saying goodbye to that place and to that person in a proper way, after two years of waiting. And of course, also not losing the money I’ve invested in that ticket, for which I had to use part of my savings since I was barely making any money during the hardest part of COVID.
Still sounds “pitifully obsessive” to you? Still not so important? Don’t be so judgy when you have no clue what each person here and everywhere else has been going through
Hi Vichy,
You message touch me
Let me tell you about my story, there is hope.
19 years ago I felt in love with a Japanese girl, I was deeply in love, she loved me but not enough for me.
After 3 years of difficult relation we broken too…
We made our way, separately, and for 16 years we never be in touch anymore
But love was there, hidden, in his heart and in mine.
Last October she found me on social network, I was on social network since few weeks
She told me that she was looking for for me for years because she still loves me.
We want meet again, love each other again and continuous our love story where we stop it.
Good luck
Sorry to hear that Vicky. Same here, my fiancé right now is in Japan as a research student. We were planning to get married, but COVID made all our plans impossible to do. We want to get married in Japan, before I will go to Germany as a researh student too, but my application for visiting fiancé visa was denied. We are so disappointed, I have put so much effort and money for the application, and yet they denied it without stating any reason.
Now, it is starting to tear as apart. Depression is now slowly setting in both of us. That is why I am obsessed with all of these foolish actions of the ought to be smart japanese.
I am so disappointed on how observations and studies from other countries does not help them in their policy making.
Hoping for your very fast recovery, Vicky.
I care because the love of my life is in Japan and I can’t see her when I want. I’m care about her, I’m care about Japan. So yes it is important for me…
People are seriously interested in going to Japan. Don’t you have anything better to do..?
I do care about it and care a lot because my boyfriend lives there. Yes, I do check the news related to Japan reopening its borders “obsessively” and that’s because I haven’t seen him in person for 2.5+ years and I’m trying to find hope that sooner or later we’ll be able to meet again. As you know (I hope), it’s not that easy for Japanese people who have a full time job to take a long vacations and travel abroad, that’s why me visiting him and staying there for a short while sounds easier for us.
We’ve been in a relationship for about 6 years now, almost half of which it was only a long-distance relationship due to the Covid-related restrictions. Many people wonder how come we’re still together, but love is love, and as painful as this situation is, we can’t just suddenly stop having feelings for each other, or erase all the memories we have together.
If all I wanted was visiting Japan as a tourist, I would definitely be much more patient. But it’s not only that in my case. This situation is directly affecting my boyfriend and I, and staying up to date with the latest news is very important for us.
I find this article very informative and helpful and I appreciate (most of) people’s comments here because they share useful additional information. What I don’t understand is why people like you who apparently have no interest in this topic still visit this site, however.
The OP is a clear troll and I don’t feed trolls, but because others are using this as a chance for sharing, so will I.
My interest in Japan’s re-opening is clear from my username. My livelihood has been wiped out for over 2 years now. My friends’ livelihoods have been wiped out. As for the depression that others are mentioning, I can definitely relate to that.
Taiwan, one of the very few Nihon companions in closed borders, announced that they will “proceed with careful evaluation of a schedule to lift waterfront measures”. No other info was given, in the same way they act on sunrise land.
Taken from the media (I didn’t even bother to do some math):
“The seven-day average of new infections in Tokyo jumped 101.3% from a week earlier to 16,216.4.”
It was 133%ish a few days ago. The “indicator 3” in the Tokyo page is saying more or less the same thing. It’s slowing down, and a pretty fast rate. We’ll see how the government reacts.
Thank you Tom for this great forum! And ZAZZA for your realistic comments. It suck a relieve to find a forum like this, especially when you have a trip plannend in October 😀
I think a few people on this comment section would say October is unrealistic. Personally, I still think October is possible, depending on how this wave goes, but there’s a real chance you may not know until last minute. Please plan accordingly to avoid any major disappointment.
I’d be interested to hear everyone’s updated opinions on when they feel the reopening will happen. Obviously, our opinions don’t ultimately matter but I still find it interesting.
Honestly, the reaction on the JP media and government is very similar to the country where I live… So it’s easy to make comparisons. Japan’s “waves” are just around a month late compared to the rest of the world (much like in EU it usually starts from Portugal then appears in the rest of the countries).
In other news, while there was no explicit mention of visa waiver between SK and Japan, the news reported a small snippet (the biggest part was the comfort women discussion) that said that Japan and South Korea agreed to “improve the bilateral ties”. I’m pretty sure the visa was included in the discussion.
., I believe there will be a discussion after the wave disappears (early August, I’d say). Depending on how the government frames what happened the reopening could start early or later.
As I said, now it’s a matter of money, more than belief. For example, Denmark spent around 0.2% of its GDP in testing (an insane amount of money), and with the current economic climate it’s absolutely unrealistic that any other state can keep this trend going.
I personally expect a partial reopening by Sept/Oct and a full reopening in 2023 (as in no more States divided by color). That depends, of course, on how fast the government decides to act.
I think the national campaign will restart in August and individual tourism for the “Blue” countries will restart in September.
It’s increasingly looking like it with the amount of routes returning to operation between Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as well.
There is no point in posting opinions on here . Because if your opinion isn’t as positive and in line with other people you just get told you are wrong and are being over dramatic. My opinion is that Japan starts to re open further in Spring 2023. There is absolutely no sign there will be any change anytime soon and we are running out of months this year. Like I’ve said many times I hope I am wrong and people get to enjoy their vacations this year but I just don’t see it at this point.
“there is no point in posting opinions on here”
*posts opinion*
Next year isn’t some sort of extreme opinion at all, or even overly pessimistic.
My optimism of a reopening this year comes from what the Government covid panel said last week, but Kishida acts so slowly with everything it’s still hard to imagine him actually acting on it. He has the political leverage to do it after the election, which is the frustrating thing.
The WHO data shows new infections have almost exceeded the previous maximum with continued upward momentum. Total cases topped 10 million and if the maximum is exceeded that will be fodder for the press to make a lot of drama out of the situation and sway sentiment away from opening.
https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/jp
I would not book anything not totally refundable for the next three months at this point .
Does anyone know why Reuters stopped updating their per 100,000 data since three days ago?
Who is(are) using the press, in swaying the sentiment away from opening?
Their industry wont melt down, because the border is open for working immigrants and for bussiness. Their citizens go in and out of there country to and from other countries with very open borders. This keeps their economy still working. What does this mean?
Here’s an article from last week. ” The central government is delaying the start of its promotion and subsidy program for the tourism industry due to the latest wave of COVID-19 cases, tourism minister Tetsuo Saito announced on July 14.”
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14669926
It is odd how the Asahi and Nikkei, matter of factly, without any drama, announced Monday, today, in the Japanese versions, that the total infection exceeded 10 Million and surpassed the previous peak. I guess “1,000 man” to the Japanese is not as engaging as “one million” would be to foreigners. I guess Austin Powers, International Man of Mystery wasn’t such a hit in Japan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJR1H5tf5wE
The japanese themselves are also tired of the drama by the media.
Just look at Yahoo and Twitter comments and it’s easy to see that most people are getting tired of restrictions and just want to move on with their lives.
Japanese already noticed that despite a billion cases, vast majority are mild and hospitals are doing just fine. They are asking for reduction to class 5.
So yeah, despite what press and media insists on doing, tides are turning not exactly for a reopening but for a normalcy, which will result in a reopen indirectly, which in fact most japanese won’t really care since most of them think the country is already open. (which was what the government intended anyway)
There was also a (Yahoo I believe? I don’t remember) article saying most people are traveling even without the postponed government financial aid.
While SNS are polarized and not representative, I remember a lot of angry tweets at NHK when they “conveniently” removed, in Kishida’s first interview after the elections, the part about not going backwards with restrictions.
It’s normal behaviour, after all.
Full update coming early next week, but I’ll just echo what Andy is saying about cases and other data. It’s premature to attempt to glean anything about trajectory at this point, because testing is constrained.
Those positivity numbers alone suggest that actual infections are being dramatically undercounted, which is remarkable given that Japan just hit a new daily record. I’d assume the case data is going to get worse–or plateau for a while–before getting better. We’ve been down this road before. (All of this is also why actual immunity–to the extent conferred by prior infections or vaccinations–in Japan is also dramatically underestimated.)
If Japan really wanted to move forward, one obvious step would be to push for at-home testing (that doesn’t get recorded in official data) rather than scaling-up infrastructure. Otherwise this pattern is going to repeat itself a few times each year indefinitely.
Hello, I am now back in Japan. All smooth at the airport with “Mysos” app. Everything looks pretty much the same as before but, how should I say, a little less shiny with a few hotels, restaurants and shops closed and obviously very few foreigners. I also spotted one of the “famous” organized small group of foreign tourists…Disinfectant gel dispensers are literally everywhere and everyone wears face masks even outdoors (although they seem less protective than the ffp2/n95). People seem as nice as ever and life flows normally with virtually no restrictions and full of domestic tourists. This makes closing the borders to foreigners even more incomprehensible and frustrating. In this regard, I have the impression that many people are not aware that the borders are closed or think that it is the foreign countries that do not allow traveling. Media talks about new peak of infections and 7th wave but people do not seem so scared since stations, restaurants etc are full booked and very crowded.
That’s normal. After two years, it’s impossible to keep the “fight or flight” mentality. Not to mention the economic problems are considered far more important.
Case data will definitely continue to get worse. We can make pretty well informed guesses to the trajectory. Zazza summed this up well further down in the comments.
Luckily, the link between cases and hospitalisations has been massively weakened. One thing that may extend or prolong this wave compared to other countries, to an extent, is something Andy pointed out a few weeks ago. Whilst cases in Japan have been massively undercounted throughout the pandemic, areas such as the one Andy lives in are probably still quite immunologically naïve when it comes to prior infection. Around 70% of cases in this BA4/5 wave in the UK were made up of people that have never had Covid, regardless of vaccination status. The media makes a huge deal about repeated infections because it sounds scary, but reality doesn’t quite reflect how they portray it.
Ultimately, this wave could end up being a good thing (provided deaths remain low, obviously), as if Japan gets through it without bringing back restrictions, and the Government actually listen to their panel’s advice and reduce Covid’s classification to a level 5 after this wave is over, things could go back to some sort of normal relatively quickly. Perhaps that is being too logical for this administration, but here’s hoping.
It’s a good summary, but I think AndyO is wrong about prevalence. Given the limited testing and the fact that the infection in the not at risk categories is mostly without symptoms, I doubt there are immunologically naive areas. For a simple reason: no individual behaviour can stop this virus.
Ahh, I understand zazza. My mistake. I guess I was wrong about prevalence because I said that the data isn’t accurate due to limited testing. Yet you’re correct because case growth can be accurately determined, as you just said, with limited testing. Makes sense.
Indeed, even though the case positive rate gets closer and closer to 100%, if the number of overall tests stops to increase, then this must be an indicator that there is clear slowing in the growth rate. Yes, limited testing has no effect at all on determining growth rate. Just like how only data from Tokyo can determine the growth rate for all of Japan.
Buy seriously, you do seem to have lots of knowledge and are able to extrapolate details with your deep attention on covid, Japanese policy and overall health care. Sadly, unless you have a PhD in Biochemistry, a Japanese passport, and have a direct line with Kishida himself (apparently being a Moonie might help with that) then unfortunately all this analysis and advise you’ve given on an open-comment English language travel website will never be utilized. So perhaps its better then to just be patient, go out to enjoy your own day where you are, and not be upset when Japan once again defies logic (they perfected that ability long before covid).
AndyO, instead of sarcasm, try to reply with facts. The rest of the world got the virus as well. Japan isn’t a special case (save for excess deaths). It has made the same mistakes as the rest of Asia.
Closing the borders was stupid. Koike attacking the people going to hostess bars was stupid. Sanitizing everything was stupid. Asking restaurants to limit times was stupid. I could go on. None of this had any impact on anything.
I have a background in science but that’s not important. I refuse to forget what I know about biology and statistics just because someone says so. Reading that certain Japanese experts have been “surprised” by this wave while the seasonal pattern of R was clear since two years ago says a lot…
My country got all that Japan is experiencing now (minus border closures). The omicron wave passed without closures, masks, NPI in general. In fact, none of the NPIs used had any effect.
But now money is more important. EU countries discovered all this testing is simply financially unsustainable, especially with the energy crisis and the Ukraine war. Same with quarantines etc. Do you really think Japan can do differently? I doubt it, and the polls, despite the limitations, are showing that.
“Win”? This is not a contest.
“Facts”? The truth can only be determined if the data is accurate, and with limited testing, it is not.
Your posts as well as most post on here (including mine) all have one common element: Japan is ignoring facts, and they are doing their best to not even gather facts so that it is easier to ignore them.
Ignoring problems is what they do best, not just with Covid. It is the time honored way of dealing with issues, whether within families, among friends, inside companies, and even as government policy. So complaining about it and/or trying to say what Japan “should do” is an act of futility. Regardless of any virus, the list of what Japan should do is very very very long.
Therefore, only once you accept this can you maybe start to understand what Japan “will do”, which is the actual point of this article.
How they manage their COVID-19 crisis is sure to fail, but I want them to fail misserably. Failure that will awaken their citizen, a riot will be a good sign.
Just like Australia and New Zealand who are at first so proud of “containing the spread” of the disease, until the citizens realized that all of that are none sense and riots are the result.
If the government fails misserably, then it will be very good for their ordinary citizens and to the lowly immigrants, while it will be bad for their xenophobic elites. If not missebraly, then maybe some changes in their thinking, that they are not a unique or special race as they thought they are. That they are just normal people.
I will just wait and see.
AndyO, I understand perfectly what the government does. That doesn’t mean I will stop criticizing them. And if you haven’t noticed, they ARE repositioning themselves, to avoid saying they were wrong. Just by reading the news you can see that.
“The truth can only be determined if the data is accurate, and with limited testing, it is not.”
Please, what I’m saying has nothing to do with limited testing. The testing in my country revealed probably less than 10% of the actual infections during the latest wave. Yet, the 7 day rolling average and the comparison of the growth of the curve were perfectly valid means to understand what was going on. It’s not magic.
The press is feasting on the cases, too bad it’s not going as “planned”.
Using Tokyo’s own monitoring system (https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/monitoring) it’s pretty easy to see the infection is slowing down – according to the data, Day-over-day change: -7.8 % points. It’s significant and it’s going to get bigger.
In other news, the mayor of Narita took a shot at the government as well:
「（旅行を控えることが）感染抑制にどれだけ効果があったのかがいまだに明確でない。延期するには根拠やデータを示してほしい」
Pretty brutal.
zazza what u think happened between the last wednesday announcement “Class 5 is unrealistic” and friday’s Omi “we should start a class 5 approach for Covid”?
Weren’t they supposed to announce the date for the national tourism campaign this friday? Is the government confused about what to do at the moment?
The pressure has been sky high, Tokyo Industry and Commerce asked for ease of restrictions (mentioning the September expo, not only the obnoxiously far 2025 Osaka thing), and there seems to be a crescent movement in favor of economic measures instead of preventing the spread given the low hospitalizations.
Not really confused. Aside the usual “analysis paralysis”, I’ve seen the same approach in the country where I live. The government is starting to reposition itself but at the same time it’s trying to avoid saying “Sorry,we were wrong”.
Testing has leveled off in Tokyo.
But the testing data on the link you gave is not updated in a timely manner. (actually, its says the number of tests has gone down in the past week…) And it says the number of positive cases shown within the testing data (Indicator 4) is vastly different from the actual number of positive cases (Indicator 1), which therefore gives skewed data.
This data (currently) says there is a case positive rate of 39%. It’s actually more like 70+%.
Japan and Tokyo have always had a logistical max with the number of tests it can (or at least is willing to) perform, which is way way lower than other countries. So if testing has a limit, so will the number of new cases.
And yesterday Japan as a whole hit a new record with new cases. It’s not leveling off just yet by any means, but with the upcoming 3 day weekend it will probably look like it. The actual (or at least, more accurate) numbers won’t return till next Wed or Thurs. But until then, I’m sure many will celebrate the upcoming drop in new cases since testing goes way down on weekends with holidays.
AndyO, with all due respect, you don’t seem to grasp what I was writing.
I wasn’t talking about cases (besides the case positive rate was, and always will be, meaningless) I was talking about the growth using the 7-day rolling mean average – which is a part of indicator 3. The growth HAS peaked, just look at the data (for a simple reason that, in the short-medium term, the population immunity creates less possibility for the virus to infect others). That doesn’t mean the cases will not go up. Simply that they curve is slowing down. Which happens regardless of what the government says or does. There is no way to control the infection of a virus like this (vaccines prevent the disease, not the infection). And it’s clear, from Omi’s comments, that the government realized this too.
Also the pattern is seasonal – it’s happening exactly like last year. In my country it already peaked now, Japan will soon follow (each wave lasts around 45-50 days, and Japan is around halfway).
Also, the cases are meaningless di per se. They won’t – like Kyodo wrongly suggested – mean there will be a lag between cases and hospitalization and deaths. This hasn’t been the case since Omicron arrived, due to its fast “generational time” (about 1.5 days). Right now, even Japan isn’t immunologically naive (due to vaccination or hybrid immunity). There’s no way there would be a collapse of the healthcare system. The T-cell immunity (acquired via infection or vaccination) doesn’t prevent the infection, but the prevents the serious disease.
Tom, Japan needs, like the rest of the world, to stop testing. Testing is a diagnostic tool to be used in hospitals to decide which treatment has to be used. It is not a screening. Not with a highly contagious betacoronavirus that has a presymptomatic part.
A fourth booster shot – expanded by the government as by Friday announcement – may help the at risk categories, but not the general population. Which is nothing new, considering the age stratification of the disease is known since May 2020.
Oh I’m from Brazil.
Our relationship with Japan is a weird one. We have the highest number of japanese descendants living outside Japan, as well as Japan has a extremely large number of brazilian immigrants.
The two countries share a long history of friendship.
Despite all this, when it comes to visa, we’ve no agreements whatsoever. We need visa for anything, and Brazil is excluded from most agreements Japan makes with other Latin American countries.
I think the “pure” japanese are afraid of the “half-breeds”. The pure are losing their numbers and half-breeds will eventually, (if they do nothing) over populate their country, so the half-breeds are kept in low numbers and in lower part of the hierarchy. Which is a truly weird kind of thinking. I don’t think, there are politicians or of power that are not considered pure by their society. This is reflected on how exlusivist they are . This is weird for me, because I came from a very mixed race, which I don’t believe that the japanese “race” are pure as they believe it to be.
This Pandemic fear is only a mask on how they want to control immigrants. They dont want us in their country.
Anyway, we can not do anything to it, but I want is “principles” should be practiced everytime. I thought Japanese have that, as to what is always told to us, but no most of them are hypocrites. Just like any other normal person. How naive I was. Ha ha.
Does anyone know if airlines (ANA & Lufthansa) cancel flights if the border is not open fully?
As they unwilling to change my flight or give a refund
I’m wondering the same. I have a flight with United airlines on September 1st.
Last time (April 2021) they cancelled the flight a week before so I didn’t have to do anything. But this time since technically people with certain visas can actually enter, I’m not sure they’ll cancel :/
Both of you should check your flight numbers and see if they’re currently flying. A lot of airlines planned an increased schedule from September onwards, which I assume may get cancelled if there isn’t demand due to the border situation.
“.” Great advice! Thank you!
I have moved mine for three years without canceling it. I’m planning to do the same this year as well.
Basing only on what the terrified media are reporting (I wish I had a more complete dashboard – not the John Hopkins one), the infections in Tokyo are already slowing down (growth percentage using 7-day rolling average was 133% , then 129% and now 117.7%). I read some insane predictions for Tokyo in August…not going to happen. In fact, doing nothing would have been the correct choice here.
As you stated yesterday, cases seem to peak after 5-6 weeks with this variant pretty much everywhere, which would bring us right to the end of July/beginning of August for Japan. I don’t believe any country has brought in any sort of real restrictions for it so far? Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, someone.
The exception are certain Latin America regions (Peru has like double-mask mandate if I recall correctly… not kidding) and there’s some hysteria in SK too, despite not closing the borders – right now the PCR test has to be taken 1 day before departure (performative nonsense, but I digress).
In EU, where I live? No one even tried. There are some leftovers *on paper* in France and Germany but… the compliance rate is sinking fast.
How lucky you guys are, you don’t need your visa to visit japan pre-pandemic and surely post-pandemic. Where as, we from 3rd world countries are exploited by them, and with severe restrictions in the application of visa. It is tough pre-pandemic for us to have a visa approved, right now it is impossible. They only allow us if we are to work there with there dirty jobs. Telling them that we are to visit relatives or even a fiancé is like “yeah, you can work as slave here too”.
Tiki123
I understand that you’re upset but I don’t think it has anything to do with being from a “3rd world country”.
I don’t where are you from, but I’m from Argentina. We didn’t need to apply to any visa to travel before COVID and I’m pretty sure we won’t have to in the future, when things get back to normal. There’s a visa-exception diplomatic agreement between both countries for trips that are 90 days or less (even though Japan isn’t keeping his end of the deal with ANY country right now). Visited four times with stays between one week and two months and had no issue.
I also worked in Japan for a year with a Working holiday visa and the procedure was super easy.
So, more than a “3rd world country” problem I think there might be a lack of diplomatic relations/agreements between Japan and your country.
I always appreciated the fact that Japan didn’t have such a different treatment when it came to USA/EU vs everyone else in this matter actually
I’m from a 3rd world country as well, I’m used to get a tourist visa every time I go to Japan. It’s a nuissance but the procedure is much simpler when compared to USA which is like 10 times more expensive and much more troublesome to get (tho it is valid for 10 years while Japan = each visit)
If there’s one single thing I can applaud about japanese border is that they never made any distinction based on how wealth/rich a country is, unlike many rich countries did like Denmark for instance, which for quite a long time only allowed people from OECD countries to enter for tourist reasons, one of the most absurd criterias I’ve seen this entire pandemic.
To Leo. I am from the Philippines. If you are interested you can see from here https://www.ph.emb-japan.go.jp/itpr_en/00_000035.html how absurd they are. And even prepandemic, the ristrictions are still too tight and many spouse or fiancé visa application visas are denied. They will surely approved your visa application if you work on their dirty jobs, that their citizens dont want to do. Which 3rd world country are you from?
For anyone who may be interested, including Tom, Disney Fantasy Springs construction is way behind. Insider Imagineer says opening in phases with all attractions open by 2026. I need that Captain Mickey Suite!!! Take care y’all.