Is Japan Open to Tourists?
Is Japan open for international individual travelers? Are borders open as normal in 2024? What are testing, face mask, and vaccine requirements for visitors? These are questions among those planning trips to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and this covers the answers.
The good news is that we now have an answer to questions we’ve been asking for nearly two years! First, after reopening to guided tour groups, Japan reopened to individual tourists on October 11, 2022. In the year-plus since, additional changes have occurred to the extent that it’s basically business as usual for visiting Japan in 2024.
We’ve already returned to Japan, spending about a month in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and elsewhere. In various updates here, we’ve been sharing our experiences and what it’s like as a foreign visitor, what has changed, crowd conditions, expenses of visiting Japan with the weaker yen, and much more. The big one for most of you is likely going to be Japan Face Mask Rules v. Reality in 2024.
Those two posts cover essentially everything you need to know about visiting Japan as of 2024. The short version is that it is possible to enter, regardless of whether you’re vaccinated or unvaccinated, albeit with a testing requirement for the latter. There are no quarantine requirements, and travel is visa-free for the vast majority of people reading this.
Please subscribe to our FREE email newsletter and stay tuned if you are curious about how things are on-the-ground for tourists in Japan post-reopening.
In terms of the latest news, the current vaccine and testing policies ended on May 8, 2023. This is because Japan has formally decided to downgrade the legal status of the novel coronavirus on May 8, 2023 to the same category as common infectious diseases, such as seasonal influenza, thereby easing COVID-19 prevention rules.
This is a major policy shift and will relax–if not eliminate entirely–Japan’s intensive COVID-19 countermeasures, including limiting the movements of infected people and their close contacts. Japan’s reclassification of COVID-19 to Class 5 came after a panel of experts under the health ministry agreed on the plan earlier in the day.
The downgrade would pave the way for a normalization of social and economic activities in Japan, and should mean that non-residents are able to enter the country without PCR tests or additional paperwork. Essentially, there will be no (legal) basis for the current border protocol effective May 8, 2023. Of course, things could change between now and then, but it’s likely the border will revert to late 2019 status as of that date.
We typically spend a couple of months in Japan each year, and are ecstatic to be returning after nearly 3 years away. We are eager to revisit our favorite places, see friends in Japan for the first time in over two years, and continue creating this site’s wealth of free planning resources. We’re excited about this great (but overdue) news, but also go in knowing that things will be different, in ways both good and bad.
For these two-plus years, we’ve been closely monitoring the situation in Japan, watching several hours of NHK each day and reading multiple Japanese news sources. All of this in the hope for some clarity as to when the country will fully reopen and Japan will begin allowing international tourists to enter once again.
What follows is based on that research and fixation with the on-the-ground situation in Japan. We’re preserving this for posterity, but everything that follows is now (thankfully!) obsolete information.
Japan is now allowing foreign nationals to enter Japan for purposes other than tourism so long as they have a sponsor in the country. This includes business travelers on short stays, students in study abroad programs, participants in technical internships, both guided & unguided tour groups, spouses or children (and other relatives) of a Japanese national/permanent resident, others with special exceptional circumstances, and those who would provide a “public benefit” to Japan.
With that in mind, let’s cover how we got here, why Japan maintains the strictest among the Group of Seven developed nations, and what could cause that to change…
Again and again, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said that Japan “will continue to consider how the measures should be by taking into account the infection situations at home and abroad, border control measures taken by other nations, and progress in the rollout of vaccine boosters.”
Kishida has also acknowledged that Japan’s border control measures are the strictest among Group of Seven nations, and expressed a desire/need to bring Japan in line with its counterparts. “This is the first step in our gradual easing of the [border] restrictions,” Kishida has said.
As for why Japan’s border is still closed over a year after most democracies reopened, that can largely be explained by the country’s apprehensiveness of outsiders.
For better or worse, Japan is an insular and culturally conservative country–a characteristic that is often valued by visitors. Not so much in the last couple of years, as this has been reflected in policy-making. Japan has vilified and scapegoated foreigners and had an overly aggressive approach to its borders.
Due to this and other policies, Japan has lagged behind economically, seeing slower recovery than the United States and other counterparts that have more aggressively reopened. Economic benefits of international tourists is one big reason why Japan is expected to reopen its border.
Boosting tourism was core to the late former Prime Minister Abe’s economic revitalization, and both subsequent prime ministers have indicated their intentions to maintain continuity with those plans. However, the number of foreign visitors to Japan dropped to 245,900 last year, the lowest since 1964, as the country enforced tighter border controls. Compared with the pre-pandemic level in 2019, it dropped 99.2 percent. That’s the sharpest fall on record according to the Japan Tourism Agency.
Economists fear a “double dip” recession in Japan due to the prolonged closures and restrictions. Decreased tourism plus falling exports, an increased consumption tax, reduced consumer spending, weak yen, and growing national debt. Japan’s economy has serious issues and inbound tourism was previously a bright spot.
In other words, reopening to international visitors will be important to the health of Japan’s consumption-driven economy at some point in the not too distant future. This becomes increasingly true as the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan continuing to pursue its loose monetary policy while the United States Federal Reserve, European, and other central banks raise interest rates. Quite simply, Japan is inflicting pain on itself by remaining closed.
There are also signs that stringent travel measures, including the border closure, are having a greater impact on Japan’s economy than previously believed. This is despite Japan’s “Go to Travel” campaign that subsidized domestic travel, which was offered at various times during the last two years.
According to data from the Japan Tourism Agency, stays at hotels and other accommodation facilities hit another record low in Japan last year–breaking the previous record set in 2020. The total of guests at hotels and inns was 315.75 million, down 4.8% from 2020 and 47% from 2019. (This number includes hotels used as government quarantine facilities, not just leisure stays.)
The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party recognizes these problems and realizes it needs to rebuild Japan’s economy. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that his top priority was formulating new economic measures and implementing these goals. The government will also take measures to stimulate and jump-start the economy.
Despite the aforementioned numbers, Japan is maintaining its goal of attracting 60 million foreign visitors by 2030. Additionally, the Japan National Tourism Organization has set 2024 as its goal for recovering to 2019 international travel levels. Both of these statements are reassuring given the current border closures, and indicate that Japan will unwind its travel ban in months, not years.
Against that economic backdrop, let’s take a look at the latest changes to Japan’s reopening plans…
We have more good news! Multiple media outlets, including NHK, Kyodo, Nikkei, and Fuji TV are all reporting that Japan’s government is planning to further relax restrictions and border measures with an eye to implementing the revisions by the start of October.
The specifics are not consistent among outlets, so let’s start with where they’re in agreeance.
First, there is consensus that the daily arrival cap, which is currently set at 50,000, will be eliminated entirely.
This is a necessary prerequisite for further reopening and the resumption of more inbound international flights, but this alone was not an obstacle dissuading most international visitors. While the daily number of arrivals was higher pre-closure, we assumed that 50,000 is the level at which this cap becomes immaterial with China still sidelined. Regardless, it’s good to have this removed as it eliminates an element of uncertainty and could have been an issue during peak travel times for the Japanese.
Another possibility is that Japan will allow individual foreign tourists to enter the country and exempt them from visas if they have been vaccinated three times or submit a pre-arrival test result.
This is where there is disagreement among the major outlets. Kyodo, Nikkei, and NHK are reporting that this is to be determined, with government officials still deciding whether to proceed with this plan or start with lifting the daily arrival cap. By contrast, Fuji TV is treating this as a done deal, using less ambiguous language.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly plans to make a decision as early as the end of this week, according to the news outlets’ sources.
These “leaks” came after Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara spoke on Fuji TV over the weekend and stated that Japan will consider easing all three restrictions–the daily arrival cap, ban on individual tourists, and visa requirements. “We will review all three restrictions together. We have to carry it out in the not-so-distant future,” he said.
“Japan has seasonal attractions in fall and winter. We know there are a lot of people overseas who want to come to Japan,” Kihara added. “Amid the weakening yen, inbound travelers will have greatest economic effect…There are many foreign visitors who want to come visit Japan.” Kihara added that eliminating the arrival cap alone was not enough.
Kihara isn’t the only one who has been vocal about fully reopening to tourists recently. During the Bloomberg New Voices panel, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said she would open the country’s doors “tomorrow” if it were her decision. “Tourism is a big industry in Tokyo, as well as in all Japan, so this is the time to greet more foreign tourists by using this advantage of the depreciation of the yen,” she said.
Koike said that Japan’s borders would fully reopen soon. “The national border is under the management of central government,” Koike said. “As governor of Tokyo, that would be tomorrow.”
The yen has fallen to a 24-year low of ¥144 to the dollar, likely contributing to the sense of urgency in the aforementioned interviews.
Japan eased its border restrictions last week, raising the daily arrival cap from 20,000 to 50,000 and dropping the requirement for pre-arrival PCR testing for vaccinated travelers.
Japan also began allowing unguided tours, meaning ones not accompanied by tour conductors. This is specifically for “unguided tour groups” or “non-escorted visitors on package tours” and not individual tourists.
In Unguided Tours in Japan – Reopening Phase Rules, we cover what this entails and the recently-released guidelines and FAQ for these tours. Prior to those guidelines being released, we speculated on how this would work given basic logic and past precedent with prior groups who had been allowed to enter Japan. We were wrong–the unguided tours offered two steps forward but one step backwards.
We mention this in part to own past mistakes, but also as a cautionary tale. While it certainly sounds like the end is near for the Japan travel ban, it’s premature to have a high degree of confidence.
Kishida’s government has been trying to take advantage of the weak yen and accelerate growth by attracting more foreign visitors. It thus stands to reason that opening to individual tourists necessarily needs to occur–that raising the entry cap will do nothing in furtherance of their stated goal. However, as we have seen time and time again, the patently obvious conclusion often is not the outcome reached by Japan.
Moreover, how this played out with Japan’s last announcement is also instructive.
On August 23, specifics of the September relaxation measures were leaked to the same media outlets. At that time, it was unclear whether unguided tourists would be allowed to enter. On August 31, Kishida made an official announcement encompassing all of the rumored changes, including unguided tourists. (It took a few more days for the guidelines to be released, and the clarifying FAQ is still being updated.)
While presenting the above as a cautionary tale against optimism or over reliance on logic when assessing Japan’s decisions, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. (I’m sorry, I can’t help myself. Like a moth to a flame.)
First, there’s already the realization that unguided tours–like guided tours before them–will not move the needle on inbound tourism in any meaningful way. It’s another symbolic measure, and coming at a time when an increasing number of international visitors have already moved on to other destinations and pent-up demand has begun fizzling out. The number of people anxiously awaiting Japan’s reopening is shrinking, not growing.
Second, there’s awareness within the Kishida administration that the window of opportunity to reopen the border is closing. This is something we’ve pointed out in our best and worst case scenarios in prior updates, but there’s only a limited amount of time between waves.
Over two years into this, the seasonality of COVID transmission is well-established. Cases are currently in freefall and will continue decreasing next month before bottoming out sometime between late October and early November. There will be a winter resurgence. It could start as soon as late November, but is more likely in December.
Reopening to individual tourists in October presents minimal (political) risk and maximum (economic) upside. Public opinion polls show that most voters have already moved on from COVID to assorted scandals; the minority who still care will see no immediate increase in cases correlating with the border reopening.
Frankly, the miscalculation here by the Kishida administration is thinking that this will have an immediate impact on inbound travel. Those reading regular updates on Japan’s reopening are not representative of international travelers at large. Most people need months of time between booking and traveling; very few plan and take last-minute trips–especially international ones.
Obviously, the easing has to occur at some point and this lag will always play out, but the notion that this moves the needle for fall is misguided. Autumn is already a lost cause. At best, this helps with winter. More likely, the impact won’t be fully felt until next year’s cherry blossom season.
One wildcard is the downgrade of COVID’s legal status. Several recent updates have centered around Japan’s internal debate over whether to strip COVID-19 of its special status and downgrade it to the same level as the flu in Japan’s infectious disease categories.
It’s been our perspective that this was a necessary prerequisite to welcoming individual tourists as there would no longer be a need for a responsible receiving party to monitor travelers and act as a liaison for infected individuals. Given that none of the recent reports have even mentioned COVID’s status in regard to reopening, it’s possible our perspective was wrong. Or, that this barrier does still exist and Japan will have to create a “solution” for it (travel insurance?) for individual tourists. Either way, that’s something to continue keeping in mind.
Also as previously mentioned, recent poll data also shows the public is now far less concerned with COVID than the economy, Unification Church scandal, Abe’s state funeral, and other issues. It’s entirely possible that Kishida sees this polling and his sagging approval numbers and realizes that it’s time to move forward. That there’s more upside than downside risk in reopening and encouraging more economic activity.
As we’ve stressed repeatedly, Japan’s populace has been among the most cautious in the world with regard to COVID-19. Human behavior and sentiment don’t change overnight, even if it’s economically advantageous and objectively safer to do so. Statements by politicians and medical advisors, gradual border relaxation measures, and other changes could be interpreted as Japan laying the groundwork for a resumption of normalcy and the country’s eventual reopening. It now appears that the time is here–or coming very soon.
With all of this said, I’ll present my revised best, worst, and base-case scenarios for Japan’s reopening to individual tourists…
Let’s start with the best-case scenario. This assumes that Japan downgrades COVID-19 from its special status to Category 5 literally any day now or that this is not a necessary prerequisite to an individual tourist reopening. (With the possible workaround of travel insurance or some other awkward “fix.”)
Critically, this would eliminate the legal requirement of a responsible receiving party for visitors to Japan. In such a scenario, the borders could almost immediately return to their normal pre-closure status in early October. With this, the visa exemption would be reinstated, making that a non-issue. The arrivals cap would also be eliminated in this scenario.
Then there’s the middle ground or base case. This is now the same as the best-case scenario. In short, the early October reopening is not just our most optimistic view–it’s now what we expect to happen.
To differentiate the two, I’ll also allow for a middle ground possibility of a bifurcated decision with the individual tourist reopening a few weeks after the entry cap elimination. Let’s say that happens in early November.
This is would allow a bit of wiggle room for Japan’s slow and belabored decision-making process that involves a lot of “careful consideration” and “evaluating the situation.” If anything has been well-established during the last two-plus years, it’s that inaction is Japan’s baseline, and anything that does happen occurs gradually and in stages.
Finally, the worst-case scenario is that Japan instead opts to revive its “Go to Travel” campaign just in time for fall colors season, and uses that to buoy the tourism sector through December. It’s possible the country views this as sufficient for tourism businesses to stave off bankruptcy or other financial hardship for another few months.
If/when there’s another winter resurgence in cases, the reopening can would effectively be kicked down the road for a few more months. That would mean individual tourists would not be welcomed back to Japan until sometime in the first half of 2023. I’m inclined to say Spring 2023, but it’s easy to envision a worst-case that isn’t until summer.
Our view is that the worst-case scenario is now highly unlikely. Japan relaxed its border measures earlier in September while still being #1 in the world for new cases. This indicates that Japan is finally ready to move forward and sets the precedent for future changes during waves. Who knows–it still may take until early 2023 to fully downgrade the legal status of COVID. But whatever winter wave occurs (and one will happen), that’s unlikely to be an obstacle to reopening progress, as was the case last year.
With all of that in mind, we remain cautiously optimistic that individual tourists will be allowed to enter Japan sooner rather than later. The political and economic appetite for fully relaxation now clearly exists, and there’s a vocal chorus of politicians in Japan–including those who were previously in favor of closed borders–championing reopening. It’s now the popular position being advanced publicly by politicians, not just being advocated by Keidanren or Japan’s business lobby.
Japan fully reopening in full is all but inevitable at this point. It will happen soon. The end is near.
It’s thus our view that Japan reopening in some capacity to individual tourists in October is a very realistic scenario. As improbable as it might’ve seemed even a week ago, Japan welcoming back international visitors who are not part of tours (guided or unguided) sometime before November is likely. It’s pretty clear the government is focused on moving forward. As frustrating as this whole process has been, Japan is not still (completely) stuck in March 2020.
As always, Japan is cautious and conservative, with a slow and belabored decision-making process that often embodies “analysis paralysis” and usually defies logic. That’s a wild card that could further extend any timeline. However, Japan is now joining the rest of the world as people are ready to move on with life.
We’ll keep watching the news and keep you posted if/when there are further developments about Japan reopening and allowing entry to travelers from the United States, Canada, Europe, and beyond. Again, if you’d like to be notified as soon as more details are released or rumored, subscribe to our free email newsletter for ongoing updates and alerts:
If you’re planning a visit to Japan, our recommendation at this point is to target sometime in November at the earliest. In our view, koyo (autumn leaves) season is a good bet, and that takes place from mid-November through December. That’s simply a good time to visit Japan and, hopefully, the country will be open to individual tourists by then.
Speaking of which, check out our Japan Fall Colors Forecast & Autumn Foliage Viewing Guide to get started on planning your trip to visit Japan’s popular fall foliage cities, including Kyoto, Tokyo, Mount Fuji, Miyajima, Hiroshima, Himeji, and Nara. That also offers tips for avoiding crowds and strategy for visiting the best temples, shrines, and evening illuminations.
If you’re planning a trip to the Japan, check out our other posts about Japan for ideas on other things to do! We also recommend consulting our Ultimate Guide to Kyoto and Ultimate Guide to Tokyo to plan.
Your Thoughts
Would you consider visiting Japan later this year, or is international travel out of the question for you anytime soon? How do you view the news about guided tours? Think those will stick around for several months, or are simply theater to shift public opinion? Think the need to adapt and live with the endemic virus will outweigh fear when it comes to Japan’s reopening plans? Any thoughts or tips of your own to add? If you’re planning your trip to Japan, what do you think about these itineraries? Any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
I think it’s time for the US to implement reciprocal travel restrictions. Basically reinstate the US travel ban as it was, with only “Japan” named.
While arguably “unfair”, inconveniencing Japanese citizens so they apply pressure on their own governments is the only option left at this point that is likely to be effective.
Interesting article here articulating the frustration of many Japanese tourism-related businesses
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/japan-ryokans-empty-country-keeps-tourists-out-covid-fears-1781881
They absolutely should, but I think it will take much longer for them to take action. Maybe years. In a similar vein, the EU has a process in law to suspend visa waivers in this situation, but whether we will see anything happening in practice is another matter. Reciprocity is important to the EU, so they will take action at some point, but it could take a long time. They have already said that they prefer to seek a solution through diplomacy. Japan seems to still be getting away with the COVID excuse at the moment, and they could probably drag it out for another year at least if they want to with no repercussions.
I said the same thing here several months ago. At that time it was *already* time. US, EU (where I am) and other countries like Australia or UK should reciprocate immediately. Basically all the places where the japanese like to go. Would like to see japanese public reaction when they find out the cannot go to Hawaii or Europe.
Is there going to be an August update or did nothing happen in this regard?
@Tom, I was also wondering about the same thing. In one of the earlier comments, you mentioned about releasing a new update. I’m assuming you’re in progress for that?
Either way, thank you for the detailed analysis. Definitely appreciate it!
I’m working on it as we speak. Had planned on doing it last week, but then decided to pause when the government health panel advised downgrading COVID’s status immediately. Didn’t want to do an update one day, and then have to follow-up with another a day or two later.
In hindsight, I never should’ve been so naive to think “immediately” means within days. After all, that doesn’t allow nearly enough time for “careful consideration” and “evaluating the situation.”
I have a question for those readers who tried to apply for the visa already. 🙂
Did you buy your airplane ticket prior to applying for the visa or after receiving the result? I noticed that the form (https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000124525.pdf) requires info about the date of arrival, port of entry into the country and name of airline, which makes me think that I need to hold a ticket at the moment of applying.
Of course, I’m going to call and ask the local embassy about it, but I’m just curious what other people did or were required to do. I wouldn’t like to spend money on a ticket then find myself in the situation to have to cancel the flight.
I’d like to mention that I’m not applying for tourist visa, the purpose is for visiting my partner.
I got the impression when I asked the LA consulate some time ago that if you already have a booking they take it more seriously and might speed up the process.
I have a Tourist reservation for early September that I made 6 months ago. It seemed then that the Tourism visa would surely open up by September! Looks like I’ll have to postpone it. Not sure how accommodating JAL will be to change the ticket.
I’d like to apply for the Kinship Visa as we have some relatives as well as a house in Kansai. The process of getting an invitation letter, Koseki etc is cumbersome, and even then you can’t be sure they’ll grant it! And you have to mail in your passport which means you’re stuck until they decide. They say it takes 4-6 weeks for them to approve or disapprove the Visa.
Has anyone had any actual experience with this. I’d like to understand how long the Visa process takes? Is it better to try for the Visa knowing it might be declined or wait for Tourism to open up?
I’m presuming you are going to try for the fiancé visa as if your partner was your husband/wife you would pretty much be guaranteed entry as the process is much easier. Personally I wouldn’t book a flight until you know they will definitely give you the visa as from my own experience speaking to the London consulate its really tough to get and there are also some people who have posted failed attempt experiences on here. When I spoke to the consulate they said you would need proof that you are engaged such as photos from an engagement party, social media announcements of the engagement, utility bills from time living together, a booking for the venue where you will get married. Also you would need a reason why your trip to Japan is essential and you are not just visiting to spend time with your partner (which they class as tourism). I hope you are able to get a visa and have a great trip! Good Luck!
My kid has studied Japanese since he was small and was so looking forward to being an exchange student during high school but it was all dashed by COVID. Now that the country is reopened to students he’s too old for the various programs and needs to complete his senior year at home anyhow. I have been hoarding my airline miles during the pandemic, however, and just used them to book a trip to Japan for May/June 2023 to celebrate the kid’s graduation at the end of this coming academic year. Fingers crossed that it opens and remains open by next summer, but if not, I’m no dummy: I made sure the tickets are refundable!
http://www.ryoko-net.co.jp/?p=108709
Maybe I’m over analyzing but don’t you guys think it’s a bit worrying the fact that they are already showing up ERFS entrance numbers for “October onwards”?
From “October onwards” ERFS should be dropping its existence if we expect regular tourism to return.
I probably wouldn’t worry about that too much. They’re probably just stating how many ERFS applicants want to tour in Japan under the assumption that the current system is still implemented in “October and beyond”.
From what I read the SK government issued a temporary visa-free entry from Japan, Macau (and somewhere else) for a month, I think, for tourism.
I think it was a grave mistake from the SK government, as I doubt Japan would do the same for now.
From 4th-31st August for Japan, Macau and Taiwan. They are being added to the visa-waiver list so can enter South Korea without a visa for that period.
I agree, it’s a shame they have chosen to do this with no reciprocation from Japan.
Seems like the only country in the world who had balls… lost such balls.
Man, what obscure power Japan has over all other countries that let them silently succumb to their wishes while never getting anything back? lol
What exactly is the reason for that specific time frame? Is it some sort of trial, to be reevaluated after the 31st?
Also, last I heard Taiwan wasn’t letting anyone in, and Macau being a SEZ of China they probably aren’t either. It seems like a really strange plan for South Korea to be doing these non-reciprocal visa waivers.
Sad thing is Japan has no reason to open (I’m sure someone will argue the economy will collapse without us) Domestic tourism is back to 95% of pre pandemic levels. Everybody is loving that they are able to go to tourist hotspots and the best restaurants without any crowds and Japanese nationals can now travel to wherever they like and return home with no issues. They have no reason the reciprocate anything because no other country has the balls to do anything.
Why would South Korea shoot itself in the foot economically over Japan being stupid. This is literally only for Seoul festa. If anything, taking it away from the Japanese after it is over is going to make more of a difference, as the covid pretense will be completely removed.
See;
https://t.co/G6f9aoDJNQ
“Korea-Japan National Assembly “Efforts to revive visa waiver after October”
Thanks @”.” for the link. It’s good to see that South Korea is making this an issue in public, unlike everywhere else.
It seems unlikely that Japan would reinstate visa waivers for only South Korea and nobody else, because this suspension is still ostensibly about COVID, and it would be completely illogical from that point of view (although I wouldn’t put anything past them at this point). Perhaps we can hope they will reinstate all visa waivers “after October” as per the article.
That kind of timeline would also tie-in with potentially legally reclassifying COVID in Japan at a similar time in the Autumn.
I don’t feel this is particularly good news. It’s almost confirmation that November is the earliest we might see open borders again. And as we know, things almost never happen at the earliest possible date in Japan.
The article isn’t about official government talks, just a cross party/national alliance. Nothing to say that things couldn’t happen sooner, or later.
Another reason More and more Japanese people going for domestic traveling is the devaluation of yen while high inflation every where. It makes traveling abroad less attractive.
We will be in the early innings of new COVID variant/wave around October.
I’ve also seen a news floating around (not sure how reliable though) that a SK delegation (arrived in Japan the other day – it wasn’t announced beforehand, apparently) is having “confidential discussion” with the JP counterpart to reinstate the waiver “earlier” – whatever that means.
Of course, if they reinstate it just for one country, it’ll bring up a domino effect, wether they like it or not…
Trav, and…? That will happen every year. Like the flu.
@zazza – If they only allow visa waiver for SK it will also make it plainly clear to everyone that the visa waiver suspension is nothing to do with COVID at this point (that’s if anyone is even paying attention apart from us!)
You dont have to sell me on it. Yeah it happens but what Im saying is if there is a new variant JGov will shut the door and ask questions later. Again you dont have to convince me Im just going on how JGov thinks. They will scapegoat foreigners even if its for theatrics or have we not learned anything people?
South Korea is doing it primarily for the purpose of promoting Seoul Fiesta ’22 and associated casino hotels. Taiwan isn’t open either. There was no expectation of reciprocity.
Full update incoming later today, but thought this was interesting: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/08/cd3992518379-japan-health-experts-urge-govt-to-speed-up-review-of-covid-measures.html
Perhaps I’m overly optimistic, but it would be great to see phase 1 implemented immediately, before the decrease in cases starts.
It’s stupid, but throughout this, we’ve seen correlation confused for causation. The reclassification happening and then reported cases/hospitalizations dropping would likely be viewed in a positive light, and facilitate the second phase.
Obviously, no direct or immediate bearing on the border reopening, but a potential step in the right direction.
I’m not sure if this is a good forum to ask this question or not but you all seem to be very informed on and following Japan specifically.
My son is a senior in high school and loves everything Japan. I booked a fully guided tour for the two of us over fall break Oct 10th ’22. I can’t describe how excited he’s been!!
I got word last week that the tour was canceled. This seems extremely premature to me since a lot can happen in 3 months but is there any hope of rebooking for that time once covid finally gets downgraded to flu category which is what it is or should I just get a refund and forget about it?
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks!!
Suzette, the cancellation sounds about right. A tour operator that I know called off its September tour in June. Companies need lead time to plan things, people need assurances, etc. Most people don’t want to be waiting until the week before the trip to find out if they can go or not. The operator’s deposits also can’t be returned once a certain date is passed. October is certainly possible for a re-opening, but the operator can’t take it down to the wire. My advice is to not book anything, or spend any time and energy planning anything, until Japan has announced their opening. Plan to go somewhere else for this year. I honestly can’t figure out why people are booking things for a country that is closed. If your tour operator is offering you a refund with no penalty, I’d take it. You can always re-book when something is known for certain.
Hey Suzette, information of the Covid roadmap would be extremely clear in the next week or two. Stay calm like me and my friends who I told that our destination would be Japan for our winter meetup and I always told them give Japan till end of august. Everything is looking extremely positive right now. Just be patient for a week or two and trust me. Individual tourism is just so so nice.
“information of the Covid roadmap would be extremely clear in the next week or two”
“Everything is looking extremely positive right now”
Wow, I don’t know if I’d say that, but I hope you’re right. I certainly don’t feel that positive. I don’t think we’re going to hear anything for a while longer, maybe September at the earliest just for news about the plan or the next step.
Land, where are you getting your information that things will be announced in the next week or two?
Calum, Land wrote to just trust him (her?). So trust.
Seriously though, I’ve seen a string of very disappointed people over the last 2+ years, who invested time and money on the optimism that Japan would be opening soon, and it hasn’t. Even when I urge people not to book anything until there is clarity, they want to do it anyway. So I get to reluctantly work to take the booking (out of a desire to not lose the customer forever), then get to do the work on the cancellation.
If they keep saying that Japan will be open within a couple of months, eventually they’ll be right.
Okay I will trust Land. I will book my flight for next week!
I trust Land harder, I already booked non-refundable flights just now. Doing it raw
. Joke aside, I hope these positive opinions are true. Booked a trip for Nov (fully refundable). Good news need to come soon
Calum, I see, but your logic is beyond the supposed coronavirus risk and could apply for eternity.
Reclassification to Class 5 (or similar) seems just a matter of time.
The big giant enormous question that remains is how long the government will take between the reclassification itself and updating the stupid border measures to drop the ERFS and restart issuing visas as it was before so tourism can reborn.
We are all assuming that once covid gets lowered, it won’t take more than another month for a reopen, but the outstanding slowness + lack of common sense by the government never ceases to amaze me.
On this topic, someone sarcastically commented Kishida’s 300 days as PM speech as “300 days of ‘I will take into consideration'”.
Does the reclassification have to be done through a change in the Infection disease law ? I’m doubtful for Oct but hopefully you are right in assuming that once it does pass the foreign travel provisions would be the first to take effect.
Sort of related to the entire blog:
COVID in Japan shuts one in 10 hotels and travel agencies
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Travel-Leisure/COVID-in-Japan-shuts-one-in-10-hotels-and-travel-agencies
Except that COVID didn’t go anything. The government did. So much for “Japan’s success”.
Judging by today’s data, looks like cases should peak this week. Hopefully the decline is as rapid as the assent was. Unlikely, of course, but they did drop off pretty quickly elsewhere.
Last week, one of Japan’s universities did modeling that predicted the peak would be August 6. Can’t speak to the credibility or past accuracy of the particular model, but several U.S. universities did the same last year, and they were often accurate within 1-2 days.
Tom, I find the “modeling” laughable. You can use a spreadsheet and copy the data and you can more or less make a good approximation of how it works.
Right now the epidemic curves are pretty much the same around the world.
So much for the “AI” used to predict 100,000 cases in Tokyo alone in August! Too bad no one will call these guys out for their stupidity.
Are you assuming this is the last wave? Dont you think we will get a pretty horrible Omicron (probably new variant) in Fall/Winter? I dont give a rat’s fury a** about COVID but if you guys are so interested in waves and peaks then it seems too easy to assume this is the last wave/variant
Also one thing you guys are underestimating is because Japan has been pretty much underexposed to COVID (relative to population) it is primed for more severe cases and hospitalization. Just take a look at Australia and NZ. In NZ’s case the vaccination rate is pretty high but because of their lockdowns and strict measures relatively small percentage were exposed to alpha/delta/omicron and so the immunity is mostly vaccine induced (ie not as robust) and so they are seeing nasty spikes in hospitalizations and even deaths during the current BA.5 wave. Again assuming this is the last variant and wave then we are all golden but if there is another more serious variant or same just influenza/COVID meatball from hell in Winter then Japan WILL see pretty dramatic increase in serious cases this Winter and if you think Kishida will just smile and pretend nothing is happening then you need reality check.
@trav2001, Nobody is suggesting that this is the last wave. We are likely to see repeated waves of COVID and new variants for the long term, although there’s no reason to suppose they will be more deadly ones.
Japan has to either accept that and move on, like most of the rest of the world has already. Or stick with their current ridiculous system which doesn’t actually do anything to help, but causes a huge amount of headaches and inconvenience.
trav, Japan wasn’t a Covid Zero country, so the situation isn’t like NZ o AUS.
Despite what some people say here, at this point it’s extremely unlikely that there are immunologically naive areas.
Also, other waves will come. But the point is that from July 2021 for Japan there was no point in imposing any kind of restriction on both the citizen AND the borders. Actually, scratch that, no restriction made any sense from the beginning (read the pandemic response plans from most countries pre-2020).
Also, the next variant may more virulent, deadly or not. But the prior immunity (vaccination + prior infection) will avoid, for most people, serious consequences.
Agreed with what Gav and zazza have said–no one thinks this will be the last wave. Human behavior around the winter holidays alone likely means another wave then–potentially a “worse” one in terms of reported cases (unless the nationwide testing and reporting apparatus is dismantled by then, which very well might occur).
Another reason why all of this is meaningful is timing. Japan has shown repeatedly that plans are paused or derailed during waves. There’s going to be a window between this month and roughly late November for Japan to make changes before the next wave occurs. If the border doesn’t reopen by mid-November…it’s probably not happening until March 2023, at the earliest.
I dont know about you all, last week I felt like there was no hope left and that we could never make it to japan this year, however, this week, I am feeling quite postive that we will even be able to go in october! Hope those cases will die out quick!
Told you Twice 😀
I was always confident, never really take any political information at face value. The fact they never restricted shoes you the undertone plan throughout the whole wave. Now they are hinting to the public about lowering Covid to stage five. It’s gonna happen.
I don’t know about you all, last week I felt like it there was no hope that we could travel to japan in fall, however, this week, I somehow feel more postive about Japan opening in october. XD I really hope the urgency of opening borders will grow in augustus. Hopefully those case Numbers will drop fast.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/07/31/national/politics-diplomacy/kishida-approval-rating-drop/
Not really interested in the dynamics of the drop (mostly is about Abe’s funeral) but this part is interesting
“Amid the spike in COVID-19 cases, the survey showed 53.3% support the government’s coronavirus response, down 7.7 percentage points from the previous poll conducted on July 11 and 12. ”
As expected, the consensus is slowly eroding since the measures are shown to be totally useless (usual caveats due to the nature of the poll apply).
I forgot that “someone” may interpret it the other way (people wanting more restrictions) but given the anecdotal data that is floating around this seems unlikely.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/07/31/national/science-health/covid-protocols-reporting/
Even the “English-mainstream-Japan-must-be-closed-at-all-costs” outlets are reporting the discussion to lower it to level 5 or similar.
That is definitely saying something.
Cases are definitely peaking some time this week. The slow down is real. Lets hope it drops just as fast but I somehow doubt it.
https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/monitoring/
Look at the moving average from indicator 1 (forget about the cases, before anyone asks. Despite sampling issues, the moving average is a reliable indicator).
Same thing here if you select Japan and look at the June 24- July 29 period:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#explore-the-global-situation.
Seen anything strange?
Another thing somewhat related to point out is that despite letting in over 1000 times more tourists than Japan in June alone, South Korea’s cases per million are almost identical to Japan’s. Hospital data is better, too, with the usual caveats.
There really is no evidence that tourism increases cases or hospital admissions to any significant degree.
Of course if it is downgraded to Class 5 Japan won’t be able to have all the restrictions and entrance requirements of Korea ? Not that many of us are going to confuse this with seasonal flu or pneumonia anytime soon.
Give me a hint please — what ks ot you’re observing there?
*is it. Sorry for the typo. At work at the moment haha
Pat: the inflection of the curve changed (more or less) – a sign that there is a slowdown and the peak may not be that far off.
You’re right!! Here’s hoping.
The peak shouldn’t be far off. It’s been a fairly short and sharp peak elsewhere. The UK is already on a steep decline now – cases and hospitalisations were both lower than the previous Omicron wave there.
That’s what he was ordered to do
For those who thought change was on the horizon… sorry, but this is Japan we’re talking about:
-Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Goto: “The treatment under the New Corona Infectious Diseases Law should not be reviewed”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20220729/k10013741761000.html
Remember the Japanese Government’s Motto: Why change when you can stay the same.
Did you really expect him to say anything different whilst cases are at an all time high?
AndyO, I really wish you’d stop taking things at face value. I’m starting to think there’s ill will intended.
Matsuno said the same two weeks ago, remember? Yet people are saying the opposite. It’s just a facade. They won’t say anything else for now.
“The seven-day average of new infections rose 49.7% to 31,578, according to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.”
From a news source which wants everything closed. Around two weeks ago it was 163%. You see a pattern here? Or are we still believing the fantasy that Japan has immunologically naive areas?
Considering the speed of infections, the chain collapse will probably be rather abrupt.
I didn’t expect anything different during this wave that’s been building up all month, but it certainly seemed like others on here did.
As far as taking things at face value, well, with all the analysis and nitpicking done on here over then most minuscule details and obscure ministerial tweets, there is still only one value that matters:
Japan is not open.
Killing the messenger doesn’t kill the message.
Can’t say I saw any comments expecting anything until this wave is over, to be honest.
I assume you won’t be joining us in poring over the details, like you have been, in the future then? After all, the only thing that matters is that Japan isn’t open.
Ah yes, I admit I’ve re-posted tweets from the rumor mill saying that covid should be immediately downgraded as well as articles quoting others who say the same. Call me guilty.
Please lambast me.
An odd response from one of the only regular posters that often lambasts others for their views. You know full well what I mean. Don’t pretend you haven’t speculated, like the rest of us. You have literally done so in your original comment.
I appreciate you get a lot of unnecessary comments from some posters, but is that really an excuse to do the same to others? You make genuine points that get lost because of it.
So is this how the change will be determined ? Because deaths from Covid have been above the flu since 2019 pretty much everywhere.
AndyO, you think JP is the only risk-averse, analysis-paralysis country that experienced this virus? Well, nope.
I’ve seen the same happening in the country where I live.
The difference is that the JP government wants, more than the others, to save face. The “recommendations to elderly from the prefectures, authorized from the government” news of today is clearly an attempt to dump the responsibility on the governors and avoid problems at a central level. ANY highly bureaucratic society does like this.
Japan is not special. It’s simply lagging behind and doing what everyone else has done – as its own pace. But the difference is that now, the economic situation won’t (I repeat: won’t) allow this charade to go on for much longer.
All these rumors have a goal, don’t you think? There would be no point on letting the news outlets run with them otherwise…. considering the major leaks come from the government itself.
Andy, just say you hope Japan doesn’t accept foreigners anytime soon. Why use this expression “change on the horizon?”. If things happens this year, they are still on the horizon.
You just appear here to show your negative views of everything. You disappear for some days and only return when there’s bad news, or what can be interpreted as bad news.
Despite this article you made sure to comment here, Kishida said they will consider a change to class 5 after this wave is over.
Of course Kishida said a lot of things on the past, but in the same way what you promptly reported can be seen as bad, other news can be seen as good.
We’ve not seen my daughter and her family since they were posted to a naval base in Japan during the height of the pandemic. We’ve been monitoring the ability to travel there and really hope to get there late this year, but planning and visas and tickets take time so I’m a bit discouraged. I wish people who have family there could get a break.
If you have family there you can get a visa to go visit though.
I’d like thank everyone for their response to my post. I know it’s been an incredibly frustrating period. Just wanted to add while JGov behavior has come as a quite a shock to many, this is more or less in-line with Japanese mentality and way of doing things. This is how they operate as in pause, shut off and dither and above all look for scapegoats in this case foreigners. This has been the case since Tokugawa shogunate. Hopefully this is just a once-in-a-generation pandemic and soon they will run out of excuse to stay closed but I for one keep telling myself when the going gets tough, be it pandemic, war, famine what have you, they will blame us foreigners so our position in Japan is always precarious.
It is frustrating no doubt but honestly I would rather Japan delay by a few months than continue with the restrictions Korea still has in place (and is talking about more). Public opinion is also substantially in favor of relaxed borders, just as an aside, whatever the electoral politics involved.
Members of the government subcomittee on infectious diseases have recommended to lower the virus to level 5:
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA27DT10X20C22A7000000/
Again, it looks something they planned all along, so Matsuno’s comment about it being “not realistic” two weeks ago looks even more ridicolous now.
The leader of Komeito has said the same, today. Seems like it’s just a matter of waiting until this wave is over now.
Am I right in thinking that they have to wait until the Autumn session of the Diet in order to change this? If so, then the earliest it could happen is late September, more likely October (or November!).
Not necessarily. The Diet was already called for an extra session (mostly for the discussions about Abe’s state funeral, but that doesn’t mean they can’t talk about something else).
Giving twitter reaction of those who are in favor of the reclassification asap, it doesn’t seem to need any sort of specific Diet to pass~
August will be a key month.